1936 election as predicted by Literary Digest and Gallup
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  1936 election as predicted by Literary Digest and Gallup
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Author Topic: 1936 election as predicted by Literary Digest and Gallup  (Read 2187 times)
GMantis
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« on: August 24, 2016, 02:41:51 PM »

These two maps are based on the famous final predictions made by Literary Digest (above) and Gallup, then known as American Institute of Public Opinion (below) in 1936. The predictions excluded minor parties and calculated the share of the major party vote in each state instead. This is based on the report published by the Pittsburgh Press the day before the election.

In addition to Connecticut and Rhode Island, Gallup also considered Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming too close to call.





It's interesting that Gallup though largely accurate, gave a better result for the Republicans everywhere except North Dakota. The Republican best case scenario of all too close states going to them actually gives Landon a much better result (216 EV) than any of Roosevelt's opponents ever got.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2016, 09:32:37 AM »

LOL at the above map.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2016, 10:13:16 AM »

Please keep this in mind next time you blast 538 for getting a race wrong. Tongue
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2016, 10:22:41 AM »

Pesky note - the poll results seem to be "as shares of the 2-party vote". Thus, Roosevelt's result of 64% in North Dakota per Gallup can't be directly compared to his actual result of 59.6% since the Union candidate Lemke took over 10% there.
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GMantis
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2016, 03:38:21 PM »

Pesky note - the poll results seem to be "as shares of the 2-party vote". Thus, Roosevelt's result of 64% in North Dakota per Gallup can't be directly compared to his actual result of 59.6% since the Union candidate Lemke took over 10% there.
You're right - discounting Lemke's 13% gives Roosevelt a two party share of nearly 70%.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2016, 11:57:10 AM »

The main reason that polls like the Literary Digest overstated R numbers at that time is because most polls were done by telephone, which was still primarily owned by wealthy Americans at that time.  And prior to the culture wars, those voters were solidly GOP. 

I just wish that the Literary Digest prediction had been accurate...
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GMantis
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2016, 01:31:40 PM »

The main reason that polls like the Literary Digest overstated R numbers at that time is because most polls were done by telephone, which was still primarily owned by wealthy Americans at that time.  And prior to the culture wars, those voters were solidly GOP. 

I just wish that the Literary Digest prediction had been accurate...
No, the polls were mailed, with the recipients then replying if they wanted to (which introduced additional sampling bias). The recipients were chosen from telephone directories, but also roosters of clubs and associations and lists of magazine subscribers. Of course in the middle of a depression these were heavily biased to wealthy voters.

And of course the rule about the wealthy obviously wasn't true about the South.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2016, 02:00:39 PM »

Please keep this in mind next time you blast 538 for getting a race wrong. Tongue

Our polling methods are much better now though.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2016, 04:50:44 PM »

Please keep this in mind next time you blast 538 for getting a race wrong. Tongue

Our polling methods are much better now though.

That was my point. Polling is a highly inexact science, but it's gotten a lot better over time.
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