Reuters: Clinton leads Trump in key swing states
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  Reuters: Clinton leads Trump in key swing states
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Author Topic: Reuters: Clinton leads Trump in key swing states  (Read 1158 times)
PollsDontLie
nirvanayoda
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« on: August 24, 2016, 05:48:20 PM »

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-exclusive-idUSKCN10Z2MO?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

From the article:

"The election is still 10 weeks away, and a great deal could change prior to Nov 8. The candidates are running about even in eight states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina, "
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LLR
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2016, 05:48:53 PM »

Lol Reuters
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 05:50:53 PM »


I coulda sworn they used to be a good pollster. Now they're not even trying.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 05:52:25 PM »

If Michigan and NC are within five points of each other (in margins), I will be genuinely shocked.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 05:53:48 PM »

Their cartograph map is just as terrible as their polling.

Reuters can't get the nationwide poll right, now they are off on another boondoggle. Good luck, Reuters.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 05:54:08 PM »

These don't appear to be polls, but rather conclusions from Reuters' model.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 05:54:36 PM »

So Reuters thinks that Clinton's up 12 nationwide, but tied in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 05:56:02 PM »

These don't appear to be polls, but rather conclusions from Reuters' model.

Correct. These aren't polls.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 05:56:22 PM »

Fair enough, but you should probably note the headline:
"Exclusive: Clinton leads Trump in key swing states, would likely win election"

Their model or whatever gives Clinton a 95% chance of winning. As it said though, it's still 10 weeks away.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 05:57:05 PM »

You know that something is sh**t when even Seriously is calling them out on it.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2016, 06:01:12 PM »

What even is this? Ohio basically safe Dem while Michigan is a tossup? Yeah, sure. Totally going to happen that way.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2016, 06:02:35 PM »

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How many models do they have? Huh
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2016, 06:08:12 PM »

You know that something is sh**t when even Seriously is calling them out on it.
Trump leads in Maine, but is trailing in Missouri... Yeah. OK. They have 10 weeks to get it right. This just looks putrid right now.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2016, 06:08:42 PM »

Fixed Wink
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LLR
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2016, 06:10:57 PM »

"and the polling sample is too small to determine the winner in Alaska, Wyoming and Washington D.C"

Damn! I was dying to know who's winning Alaska, Wyoming and DC! Sad

#BattlegroundWyoming
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2016, 06:11:49 PM »

Hmm...TNVolunteer is going to be conflicted.  They have NH as a toss-up, but Maine voting to the right of NH and going for Trump.

Their estimates in a lot of the states makes sense, but there are a number of states that are obviously wrong, like Wisconsin and New Mexico.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2016, 06:19:45 PM »

Should this even be under polls? This is more along the lines of what 538 does in terms of simulating the election outcome.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2016, 06:23:22 PM »

Should this even be under polls? This is more along the lines of what 538 does in terms of simulating the election outcome.

It shouldn't be.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2016, 06:33:25 PM »

Wow, Reuters, you guys are making Gravis look like pros.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2016, 06:38:47 PM »


I coulda sworn they used to be a good pollster. Now they're not even trying.

When they found Hillary up by double digits, right?

I was talking about in previous election cycles.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2016, 06:41:29 PM »

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How many models do they have? Huh

Almost as many as FoX News on its broadcast!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2016, 06:52:50 PM »

i can find literal manure with more insight into this election than a Reuters poll.
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PollsDontLie
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2016, 07:04:59 PM »

I'm not sure why this was moved -- I think it is a set of polls. They are listed individually at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now as IPSOS polls (although I suppose perhaps 538 misinterpreted them and this is just a model).
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2016, 07:13:06 PM »

I'm not sure why this was moved -- I think it is a set of polls. They are listed individually at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now as IPSOS polls (although I suppose perhaps 538 misinterpreted them and this is just a model).

The explanation in the article makes it sound like it's a simulation, based on their polling, not the poll itself:

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I don't understand where 538 is getting the numbers for sample size in what they included. Am I missing something? Is the actual poll that the simulation is based upon sitting out there somewhere?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2016, 07:30:23 PM »

I don't understand where 538 is getting the numbers for sample size in what they included. Am I missing something? Is the actual poll that the simulation is based upon sitting out there somewhere?
I didn't find it either Huh
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