Is Minnesota a Swing State?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The conventional wisdom seems to be that Minnesota is not a swing state in a close national election.  But, why?  It's PVI is only D+2, equally as far from the average as R+2 Florida.

[OwlRhetoric]

No. The only time it was remotely close in recent memory was when Nader got over 5% in 2000. The state slants Democratic and liberal. It's not going to be contested unless Johnson and Stein somehow take a huge bite out of Hillary's support here.

[TDAS04]

No.

[LLR]

No, especially with many immigrants coming in recently.

[Young Conservative]

If the nominee was Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio, Yes. With trump, no.

[Dr. Arch]

No. Fool's gold for Republicans since... forever.  Plus, Trump is probably the worst possible fit for the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I realized last night that every single candidate in a major partisan ballot office I've voted for since 2008 has won. Not just for President...everything. And obviously I only vote Democrats. So no.

[Kingpoleon]

With a Ryan, Kasich, or Christie as the nominee? Yes...

[Xing]

Certainly not in this election. Minnesota is quite inelastic, and Republicans are moving in the wrong direction if they want to win it.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nope. Not at all.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

(no)

[Figueira]

PVI is not the be all end all to everything.

[OwlRhetoric]

Claiming any of the mainstream GOP alternatives or Cruz would put MN into play is just wrong. Much as I dislike it, this is a blue state that will not go into play for anyone with an (R) next to their name unless there's a strong left-leaning third party candidate siphoning support from the Dems. I don't think Johnson and Stein qualify this time.

[Arbitrage1980]

Claiming any of the mainstream GOP alternatives or Cruz would put MN into play is just wrong. Much as I dislike it, this is a blue state that will not go into play for anyone with an (R) next to their name unless there's a strong left-leaning third party candidate siphoning support from the Dems. I don't think Johnson and Stein qualify this time.

It's not a swing state, but Bush 04 lost MN by 3.5%.  And Romney lost it by a smaller margin than his birth state of Michigan.  It's more diverse than it used to be, but also a lot of college educated whites working at the many F500 companies in the twin cities, who could be open to the right Republican (obviously Trump is not one of them). I do think a Rubio or Kasich, if they had run on fiscal conservatism, economic growth, optimistic conservatism, moderate on social and cultural issues, would have done well in Minnesota.  They may not have won it, but the margin would have been below 5%.

[MasterJedi]

No, and it wasn't in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 or now even though some people want it to be. Minnesota could be won by a Republican but the platform needs to change to be less about the social issues and racisim and more about actual fiscal conservative policies, not the fake kind we usually get (aka calling for balanced budgets and spending like a drunk sailor).

[JerryArkansas]

Well considering Trump might not be on the ballot, no.

[Cruzcrew]

No. Fool's gold for Republicans since... forever.  Plus, Trump is probably the worst possible fit for the state.

[Young Conservative]

If the nominee was Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio, Yes.

LMFAO. You are so delusional. Imagine thinking that Minnesota would be a swing state with Ted Cruz of all people as the Republican nominee.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_cruz_vs_clinton-5112.html

Next time before laughing at someones opinion, make sure yours is fact based because mine always are.

[MasterJedi]

If the nominee was Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio, Yes.

LMFAO. You are so delusional. Imagine thinking that Minnesota would be a swing state with Ted Cruz of all people as the Republican nominee.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_cruz_vs_clinton-5112.html

Next time before laughing at someones opinion, make sure yours is fact based because mine always are.

Joke poll, Cruz is a horrible fit for Minnesota.

[RosettaStoned]

  Maybe.....in 2000. 

[RI]

If it were Kasich +3 nationally then maybe.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Minnesota is what TNVolunteer perceives NH to be. Looks close, somewhat favorable PVI, but realistically it's not flipping unless there's a Republican landslide. Also disagree with the idea that anyone else would put it in play.

[ProudModerate2]

No. Fool's gold for Republicans since... forever.  Plus, Trump is probably the worst possible fit for the state.

[Young Conservative]

If the nominee was Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio, Yes.

LMFAO. You are so delusional. Imagine thinking that Minnesota would be a swing state with Ted Cruz of all people as the Republican nominee.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_cruz_vs_clinton-5112.html

Next time before laughing at someones opinion, make sure yours is fact based because mine always are.

Fact: Clinton would have won Minnesota by at least 7 points against Cruz.

Thats not a fact. You have nothing to back that up.

[ElectionsGuy]

The conventional wisdom seems to be that Minnesota is not a swing state in a close national election.  But, why?  It's PVI is only D+2, equally as far from the average as R+2 Florida.

Not this year, but it could be competitive in the next few cycles.