Is Minnesota a Swing State?
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Is Minnesota a Swing State?
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Poll
Question: It's PVI is only D+2
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 87

Author Topic: Is Minnesota a Swing State?  (Read 4669 times)
IceSpear
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E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #25 on: August 24, 2016, 11:24:56 PM »

In your dreams.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: August 25, 2016, 03:50:15 AM »

Minnesota is about D+10 with a really-weak Democratic nominee (McGovern, Mondale) and about D+3 with a strong Democratic nominee (Obama in 2008). It was more Republican than the US average in 1952... go figure that one out. Stevenson just could not win outside the South.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #27 on: August 25, 2016, 08:56:03 AM »

Not at all. Would only flip with the GOP candidate winning nationally by at least six or seven points.
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Redban
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« Reply #28 on: August 25, 2016, 09:41:43 AM »

The main problem with Minnesota is inelasticity; there are few undecideds and swing voters in this state. Indeed, around 75-80% of their electorate typically turnout in elections, which suggests that there is little room for growth.

Additionally, the GOP has not won any statewide election here since Tim Pawlenty in 2006; and the amount of wealthy, educated voters doesn't favor Trump.

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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #29 on: August 25, 2016, 09:46:34 AM »

If the nominee was Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio, Yes. With trump, no.

LOL
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JRP1994
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« Reply #30 on: August 25, 2016, 10:07:28 AM »

It's a borderline swing state. Fluctuates between leans/likely Dem. I have it as Likely Dem.
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Figueira
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« Reply #31 on: August 25, 2016, 12:06:52 PM »


Even Rubio is pretty lol-worthy. He's a terrible candidate.

Kasich could have been competitive in MN if he actually won the primaries democratically (as opposed to winning a brokered convention) but he still wouldn't win it in the end.
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