FL- Chamber of Commerce: Trump +3
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  FL- Chamber of Commerce: Trump +3
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Author Topic: FL- Chamber of Commerce: Trump +3  (Read 2097 times)
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #25 on: August 25, 2016, 11:53:02 AM »

I do think Florida is about tied right now.  There's a 4th poll out today showing Clinton +1.  The St. Leo poll has been a pro-Clinton outlier this whole cycle.

Monmouth (A+) had Florida at Clinton +9. Marist had it at +5. I'm inclined to believe them over these junk polls.

That was when Clinton was at her peak and leading by about 2X as much nationally.  She has lost about half of her post-convention bump in the polling averages, so I think a tie or a bare bones lead in Florida is now reasonable.  Trump +3 probably isn't right though.

According to RCP, her post-convention peak was +8, and now she's +6. In addition, there's not much significant evidence based on state polls that tightening has occurred.

And not to beat that dead horse, but in pollster's aggregate, her peak was +8 and is currently +7.5.
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