Predict the Makeup of the Senate

[ElectionsGuy]

51/49 D, with the following Democratic pickups: IL, IN, NH, PA, WI.

[RFayette]

51/49 D, with the following Democratic pickups: IL, IN, NH, PA, WI.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

51/49 D, with the following Democratic pickups: IL, IN, NH, PA, WI.

[BuckeyeNut]

53/47 D. Definitely: WI, IL, IN, NH, PA.

Two of the following: NC, FL, MO, OH, AZ.

[windjammer]

Well,
I expect democrats to pick up, in order of likelihood:
Illinois
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Florida
North Carolina

All of these seats, I believe will have a greater probability than not to be picked up by a democrat.
So D+7

Then the sleepers:
Ohio
Iowa
Missouri
Arizona
I believe eachl of them will have a great probability than not to remain republican. However, I believe as well that the probability is greater than 50% that one of these seats falls:

So D+8


I'm assuming, for quite a while, that Hillary Clinton will win in a landslide (around 10% margin), considering the current margin the average is giving her right now (+7.4 points according to Huffpost), I remain optimistic about my prediction.
If I believe the presidential result will be different, I will obviously update my senate accordingly.

[smoltchanov]

50-50 with Kaine as tiebreaker.

[Senator Cris]

Right now, I think it's 51-49 for the Democrats (pick-ups: IN, IL, WI, NH, PA).

But the range is from 57-43 for the Democrats (pick-ups: IN, IL, WI, NH, PA, FL, OH, NC, MO, AZ, LA) to 53-47 for the Republicans (dem pick-ups: IL, WI; rep pick-up: NV).

[Mr.Phips]

51/49 D, with the following Democratic pickups: IL, IN, NH, PA, WI.

My prediction exactly.

[Mr.Phips]

52/48 R. Democrats pick up NH, one of IL/WI (bold prediction here) and one other "sleeper" race (maybe MO or LA), but very narrowly lose NV. IN is a close call as well.

I have zero confidence in this projection, though (With the exception of NH, which is 100% gone for Republicans).

Get over it, Dems are winning both Wisconsin and Illinois by high single digits.

[Gass3268]

As of now 53-47

IL, IN, NC, NH, PA, and WI plus one wild card of AZ, FL, LA, MO, or OH

[Sir Mohamed]

51/49 D, with the following Democratic pickups: IL, IN, NH, PA, WI.

[Orser67]

I think Democrats will definitely pick up these three:

Illinois
Wisconsin
New Hampshire

I think Democrats will probably win four of these six races:

Pennsylvania
Indiana
(Nevada)
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio

These three are plausible but I'd give the edge to Republicans:

Missouri
Arizona
Iowa

So D+6 is my guess, with D+2 to D+11 possible

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Democrats will definitely pick up these three:

Illinois
Wisconsin
New Hampshire

I think Democrats will probably win four of these six races:

Pennsylvania
Indiana
(Nevada)
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio

These three are plausible but I'd give the edge to Republicans:

Missouri
Arizona
Iowa

So D+6 is my guess, with D+2 to D+11 possible

Actually you can put OH into the bottom field. Strickland is doing poorly there. He's trailing by high single digits although Hillary leads the Trumpster.

[Xing]

Right now, I'm going to predict 52/48 D.

WI is pretty much a done deal, and IL/NH seem pretty close behind. Then, I'm guessing Democrats get three of these races: IN, PA, FL, AZ, MO, and NC. I'm fairly confident that Masto will win in NV. Heck's not a bad candidate, but he's running in the wrong year and the wrong state.

[Vosem]

At the moment, it seems that Democrats are gaining 5 seats (IL, WI, IN, PA, NH), without losing any, which would result in a Senate that is 51/49 D. On the one hand, several Democratic wins (PA, NH, NV) seem to be very close, while the only Republican win that is averaging narrower than 3 points at the moment is NC; this suggests to me that if the election were run tomorrow, 50/50 (with Kaine tiebreaking) might be a likelier result than 51/49. At the same time, the 5 pickups even as presidential momentum is going the wrong way is a result that reminds me strongly of 2008, when during the summer Democrats were gaining 5 seats (at that time, AK, CO, NM, VA, and NH) but others seemed decently safe; the Obama landslide ended up roping in 3 more (NC, OR, and by just a hair MN). These were not the seats that seemed close over the summer (when MS was polling a very close, single-digit hold for Rs); they were the places where Obama did well. It's easy for me to see Hillary's continued landslide roping in NC, FL, and maybe OH or IA; harder to see AZ, GA, or MO falling, on the other hand. If momentum continues Hillary's way, 53/47 seems like the likeliest result.

After overthinking it like this, I just went with my original estimate of 51/49 D.

[smoltchanov]

At the moment, it seems that Democrats are gaining 5 seats (IL, WI, IN, PA, NH), without losing any, which would result in a Senate that is 51/49 D. On the one hand, several Democratic wins (PA, NH, NV) seem to be very close, while the only Republican win that is averaging narrower than 3 points at the moment is NC; this suggests to me that if the election were run tomorrow, 50/50 (with Kaine tiebreaking) might be a likelier result than 51/49. At the same time, the 5 pickups even as presidential momentum is going the wrong way is a result that reminds me strongly of 2008, when during the summer Democrats were gaining 5 seats (at that time, AK, CO, NM, VA, and NH) but others seemed decently safe; the Obama landslide ended up roping in 3 more (NC, OR, and by just a hair MN). These were not the seats that seemed close over the summer (when MS was polling a very close, single-digit hold for Rs); they were the places where Obama did well. It's easy for me to see Hillary's continued landslide roping in NC, FL, and maybe OH or IA; harder to see AZ, GA, or MO falling, on the other hand. If momentum continues Hillary's way, 53/47 seems like the likeliest result.

After overthinking it like this, I just went with my original estimate of 51/49 D.

Very solid reasoning, but i still stick to mine. Democrats (more so in midterms, of course) have peculiar habit to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 2014 comes to mind immediately - couple of weeks before election most Democrats on news sites were reasonably sure to preserve their Senate majority.. Again, less so in presidential year, but - still. Turnout among minorities, for example, may be less then in 2012 and 2008 simply because Clinton is not a minority...

[Figueira]

53/47. IL, WI, NH, IN, PA, FL, NC.

However, I'm not confident about the last five, especially FL and NC which are somewhat bold predictions.

Also, OH, MO, and AZ are all real possibilities. LA is a vague possibility depending on what happens in the jungle primaries. IA, GA, and AK(? I haven't been paying attention to this one) are races to watch, but I don't see the Democrats winning those. All the rest are out of reach AFAICT.

On the other side, I'd put NV in the same category as NH, but CO is safer than IL.

So 53/47, with outside chance of anywhere from 47/53 to 56/44, and extreme outside chance of anywhere from 44/56 to 60/40 (one can dream).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51/49 or 52/48

D net IN, PA, WI, NH, IL and 1 from OH, FL or AZ

[100% pro-life no matter what]

51/49 R

Democrats have three pickups that they can feel good about (at least lean D)- IL, WI, and IN.  Meanwhile, Republicans are certainly strong favorites to pick up NV.  That puts us at 52-48 R going into the other seats the Republicans are defending.  Forget about Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Arizona, and Iowa.  That leaves two pure tossups- Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.  We'll say one goes each way, leaving us at 51R, 49D.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If the election were now, it would be 52-48 D, with a GOP gain in NV and Dem gains in IL, IN, NH, PA, and WI.

[Heisenberg]

If the election were now, it would be 52-48 D, with a GOP gain in NV and Dem gains in IL, IN, NH, PA, and WI.

That puts it at 50-50, with the VP breaking the tie.