Quinnipiac National: Clinton +7/+10

[The Other Castro]

Wow, 538 actually gives this a pro-Clinton correction of 2 points.

I think they adjust based on pollster history and not on the specific poll demographics (aka unskewing), which for Quinnipiac is probably Clinton +2 because of their previous Trump lean in the old model.

[Mehmentum]

Either the new OH, FL, NC, AZ, MI and the Pew and Morning Consults polls are all wrong or this is right.

What do you mean?  A small lead in NC is very much in line with Clinton being up 7 points nationally.  Ditto for a 4 point lead in Ohio.

[Comrade Funk]

If Johnson continues to consistently poll around 10%, it'd be a sham if he wasn't included.

Trump has burned too many bridges to win. He'd have to win FL, PA, OH. Not happening Trumpeteers.

[Speed of Sound]

Either the new OH, FL, NC, AZ, MI and the Pew and Morning Consults polls are all wrong or this is right.

What do you mean?  A small lead in NC is very much in line with Clinton being up 7 points nationally.  Ditto for a 4 point lead in Ohio.

Certainly well within MoE, anyway.

[The Other Castro]

If Johnson continues to consistently poll around 10%, it'd be a sham if he wasn't included.

Trump has burned too many bridges to win. He'd have to win FL, PA, OH. Not happening Trumpeteers.

Did you mean sham or shame? I guess yeah maybe it'd be a shame since that's a decent polling amount, but it wouldn't be a sham since he hasn't hit the required polling average once.

[dspNY]

What is going on with Quinnipiac? They were Trump's best pollster for all this time and all of a sudden they have a Dem lean nationally (although their last batch of polls from PA/OH/FL seemed very accurate)

They implemented likely voter screens.

Quinnipiac heard it from all angles that they didn't poll enough non-whites which made their results very pro-Trump. Now they get the demographics almost spot on and it's Clinton with a pretty comfortable lead

[Maxwell]

YUUUUUGE VICTORY

this is generally in line a large chunk of state polls that show double digit wins in PA, VA, CO, and a single digit race in MO, AZ, and GA.

If you average the three real pollsters within the last week (Economist/YouGov (C+3), Quinnipiac (C+10), NBCNews/SM (C+8)), we get Clinton at 49.3%, which is so close to 50% you can taste it, while Trump lags behind at 42.3%. The bounce may be fading, but boy is it fading slowly.

obviously not counting Reuters (C+7) and L.A. Times (C+0) because I'm not a moron.

[Maxwell]

the biggest failure for the Donald is not non-white voters, but white voters. He only leads Clinton by 11 among whites. This is a disaster for him, and shows that going full on for non-college educated whites completely and totally alienates college-educated whites.

The favorables are also damning:
Clinton - 41/53 (-12)
Trump - 33/61 (-28)

and literally 64% of Trump voters are anti-Clinton, not pro-Trump. There goes the whole "secret enthusiastic Trump supporter theory".

[psychprofessor]

Q poll director: rumblings of the beginning of a clinton landslide

[Ebsy]

If Johnson continues to consistently poll around 10%, it'd be a sham if he wasn't included.

That's just not how the system works.

[Classic Conservative]

So Ohio is +6% to the right and Arizona +15% to the right and North Carolina +10% to the right of the nation this year?

[The Other Castro]

So Ohio is +6% to the right and Arizona +15% to the right and North Carolina +10% to the right of the nation this year?

Don't bother with comparing one pollster's state polls to another's national polls. It'll get you worse than nowhere.

[Mr. Morden]

whites:
Trump 48%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 10%
Stein 5%

non-whites:
Clinton 70%
Trump 14%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Gender gap remains huge…

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 14%
Stein 6%

women:
Clinton 54%
Trump 33%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Johnson and Stein continue to get the bulk of their support from youths…

Johnson at 16% among voters under 35, and 4% among voters over 65.
Stein at 11% among voters under 35, and 1% among voters over 65.

Also, the young Johnson/Stein voters overwhelmingly go to Clinton if you force them to pick between Clinton and Trump.  Whereas Johnson/Stein voters who would otherwise go to Trump are more spread out in age.

E.g., among voters under 35, it’s:

Clinton 64%
Trump 29%

in the 2-way, and

Clinton 48%
Trump 24%
Johnson 16%
Stein 11%

in the 4-way.  So a difference between Clinton +24 and Clinton +35.

Johnson and Stein continue to have poor name recognition:

Johnson: 17% favorable / 14% unfavorable
Stein: 11% favorable / 15% unfavorable

There’s a big gender gap on name recognition though, especially for Johnson.  78% of women say they don’t know enough about Johnson to have an opinion, but that’s only 55% for men.  Also, in an inversion of the normal situation where older voters are better informed than youngs, voters under 35 are more likely to have an opinion of both Johnson and Stein than voters over 65.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 14%
Stein 6%

women:
Clinton 54%
Trump 33%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Intresting. In head-to-head there are 10% of men (5% someone else + 5 DK/NA) and just 4% of women (3% + 1%) that don't vote Trump/Hillary.
In 4 way there are 23%!!! of men (14% Johnson + 6% Stein + 3 DK/NA) and just 12% of women (6% +3% + 3%) that don't vote Trump/Hillary.

It is hard to believe that men vill vote in such proportions for third party candidates 

[pbrower2a]

In most years a likely-voter screen 'favors' whiter, older, more educated people, and that means Republicans almost as a rule. Not this year!

   

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 14%
Stein 6%

women:
Clinton 54%
Trump 33%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Intresting. In head-to-head there are 10% of men (5% someone else + 5 DK/NA) and just 4% of women (3% + 1%) that don't vote Trump/Hillary.
In 4 way there are 23%!!! of men (14% Johnson + 6% Stein + 3 DK/NA) and just 12% of women (6% +3% + 3%) that don't vote Trump/Hillary.

It is hard to believe that men vill vote in such proportions for third party candidates 

Fringes of men are more susceptible towards radical ideologies. They find the thrills of danger exciting.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

In most years a likely-voter screen 'favors' whiter, older, more educated people, and that means Republicans almost as a rule. Not this year!

This year as well!

[Mr. Morden]

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 35%
Johnson 14%
Stein 6%

women:
Clinton 54%
Trump 33%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Intresting. In head-to-head there are 10% of men (5% someone else + 5 DK/NA) and just 4% of women (3% + 1%) that don't vote Trump/Hillary.
In 4 way there are 23%!!! of men (14% Johnson + 6% Stein + 3 DK/NA) and just 12% of women (6% +3% + 3%) that don't vote Trump/Hillary.

It is hard to believe that men vill vote in such proportions for third party candidates 

Fringes of men are more susceptible towards radical ideologies. They find the thrills of danger exciting.

True, but it also looks like more men than women know who Johnson and Stein are.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Hispanics will be at least 10% of the electorate(as 2012 had that) and probably 11 or 12 being as they'll likely be pissed off this time. Whites been dropping 2% each national presidential election since 1980, so 70% looks likely.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Hispanics will be at least 10% of the electorate(as 2012 had that) and probably 11 or 12 being as they'll likely be pissed off this time. Whites been dropping 2% each national presidential election since 1980, so 70% looks likely.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

I heard that a lot of whites gonna be voting for Trump because they are pissed off.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Hispanics will be at least 10% of the electorate(as 2012 had that) and probably 11 or 12 being as they'll likely be pissed off this time. Whites been dropping 2% each national presidential election since 1980, so 70% looks likely.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

I heard that a lot of whites gonna be voting for Trump because they are pissed off.

Whites went Romney by 20% in 2012 and Obama still won. This won't happen as a lot of white women and college whites will vote for Clinton against Trump. There's no way angry white males can over come this.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

[Maxwell]

he has to win whites by a lot more than Romney won them, and he's shedding white voters, not gaining them.

[Speed of Sound]

So Quinnipiac isn't junk anymore?

They applied their LV screen and their demos look reasonable. You do with that info what you wish.

[Maxwell]

So Quinnipiac isn't junk anymore?

I've generally been more sympathetic to Quinnpiac, who generally have a terrible (and deeply Republican leaning) track record in Colorado but otherwise are okay if a bit dodgy sometimes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So Quinnipiac isn't junk anymore?

Did you ever listen to why some of us had problems with QU? It wasn't a blanket statement.