Will America have a recession, even if just a small tiny one, in next 8 years?

[Matty]

If yes, do you mind predicting what might cause it?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes and in fact i believe it will happen in the next 4 years cause no econmic expansion has lasted more then 10 years

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Yes and in fact i believe it will happen in the next 4 years cause no econmic expansion has lasted more then 10 years

No woman has been elected president before so we don't know what they can do to the economy.

[White Trash]

Yes and in fact i believe it will happen in the next 4 years cause no econmic expansion has lasted more then 10 years

No woman has been elected president before so we don't know what they can do to the economy.

This tbh

[DINGO Joe]

Well, a Trumpian type of policy would cause recession almost immediately via immigration and trade.  Otherwise, I'm of the general (totally unresearched) instinct that recessions tend to follow booms or bubbles.  Demographics and technology seem to be keeping growth and inflation low, so it's possible we keep middling on for some time.  Still 8 years is a long time, so a mini-recession is more likely than not a some point, whether it has a cause or is just a period of ennui, I know not.

[Ebsy]

Probably but that still doesn't mean that we're able to predict them with any reasonable confidence.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes and in fact i believe it will happen in the next 4 years cause no econmic expansion has lasted more then 10 years

No woman has been elected president before so we don't know what they can do to the economy.

 im predicting when the next recession will happen i just used past data to predict it , im not saying it will happen.

[Kingpoleon]

Yes and in fact i believe it will happen in the next 4 years cause no econmic expansion has lasted more then 10 years

No woman has been elected president before so we don't know what they can do to the economy.

Pretty sure the recession isn't President Hillary's fault. It should be blamed on the blatant sexism causing the trade imbalance.

[Spark]

Yeah, I think it'll happen next month IMO.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Yes; the economy follows natural cycles of growth and recession. The only question is, how will the gov't react... and honestly, I don't trust someone with the instincts of a businessman (i.e. someone who can allow their company to go bankrupt if it really needs to) with the reins of the largest country on Earth (which, if it defaulted, would immediately send the world financial system into shock). I'll take Keynesianism over "voodoo economics" any day.

[ag]

Very likely, yes. Of course, if Trump elected it will, almost definitely, cause not a minor recession, but, eventually, a full-scale depression.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I mean... political upheaval in our economy is a very real threat.  Especially from Anus Orange (Thank you Rosie O'Donnell for the inspiration).

But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that overall, and despite the 2008 financial crisis, our economy has been on a long, steady moderation where we coalesce around a low, but steady rate of growth.

Because of the unprecedented aging of our society, it will result in economic indicators that "baffle" (there's that word again!) 'the economists that be'.

Very low interest rates, minimal inflation (or deflation in other countries with more acute aging), minimal growth.. but also low unemployment and rising standard of living... will be the new normal.  We will have to train away from using absolute numbers and focus on per capita figures to see the growth.

So.. recession?  Maybe in the traditional sense of the word where we have 2 quarters of -0.1% "growth" in the GDP... but other indicators will not seem so bad.

[Simfan34]

Yes and in fact i believe it will happen in the next 4 years cause no econmic expansion has lasted more then 10 years

Despite the speaker, this is correct. There are a number of things, first and foremost a Chinese hard landing, which I would say looks more likely both because and in spite of the fact it has not already happened. The industrial capacity glut persists and drags down industrial growth around the world. The housing bubble is not deflating but rather still growing, and land sales in major cities are still predicated on further increases of upwards of  50%+ or more, mortgage lending doubled last year alone. Corporate defaults are rising, and the local government bond prices continue to rise despite their severe and growing indebtedness, to which banks around the world are becoming more exposed.

The financial sector continues to be blinded by short termism and in many ways is unable to see beyond the official GDP figures. See below:

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The word for this is stupidity.

Then there is the tech sector, which is and will continue cooling. Softness in commodity prices, and their impact on employment in many parts of the country, could also contribute to economic headwinds. There are a number of trends that could serve as the impetus for a downturn, but it's virtually guaranteed that there will be one in the next four years. Unless they all turn sour at once, though, I imagine any recession would be fairly mild, given the slowness of this growth cycle.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think the next recession is already in the cards.  Minnesota always leads the nation in recessions and recoveries.  For example, MN was already losing jobs and the unemployed rolls were growing from about mid-2006, a year and a half before the recession officially started nationally.  In the previous recession Minnesota was already turning the corner into job losses in late 1999/early 2000.

In 2016 job growth has leveled off and unemployment leveled off and has been rising for the past several months.  Other states also show such a trend.  

Of course the tempting thing here is "wait and see".. but by the time we wait and see we'll all know it's here.

The question remains:  How severe, how long, and who gets the political blame?

[ag]

It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

[Storebought]

I believe every word that ag posted ahead of me. The cause of the recession will be interest rate hikes from the Fed.

[Ban my account ffs!]

If the fed hikes rates right now, I hope they go straight down to hell where they belong.

[Person Man]

If the fed hikes rates right now, I hope they go straight down to hell where they belong.

Yup. And then the tariffs. Then Trump wants to do his domestic tax cuts. He will try to smooth things over with infrastructure development. Basically, it is going to be 1929 - 1933 all over again.

[ag]

If the fed hikes rates right now, I hope they go straight down to hell where they belong.

Assuming Trump implements even a softer version of his "proposals" they will have no choice. Unless, of course, you want to have 30-dollar Big Macs within a very few years.

The Fed is not trying to screw up the US economy. They will do their best to prevent a sharp recession, as long as they can keep inflation in check. But if they let inflation start running away now, it will be that much more painful eventually to bring it down. And run-away inflation is a horrid thing (besides everything else, it would destroy US dollar as the international reserve currency, which by itself would be a major permanent shock to the US economy).

[Person Man]

So the question is whether you can raise rates, cut taxes, and print a lot more money at the same time. Could that work?

[m4567]

It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

Doesn't the party in power always get the blame?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Recession within 18 months at the outside, likely far sooner, as a reaction to bubbles popping and the Pussygrabber Administration's general incompetence. Two to one odds that it spirals out of control.

If it doesn't go out of control and there's  swift recover, then we'll get another growth cycle afterwards fueled by government debt and spending, unsustainable resource extraction, and various other flavors of looting. That in turn will end in a horrific generation-wrecking crash in ~8 years.

[ag]

It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

Doesn't the party in power always get the blame?

Not if it is led by a strong enough demagogue.

[m4567]

It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

Doesn't the party in power always get the blame?

Not if it is led by a strong enough demagogue.

Trump is too unlikeable not to get the blame.

[ag]

It will be severe, it will last for years, the new administration will be at fault, and the public opinion will blame Obama.

Doesn't the party in power always get the blame?

Not if it is led by a strong enough demagogue.

Trump is too unlikeable not to get the blame.

He was likeable enough to get elected. And he will be good at apportioning blame. It will be Obama, the Fed, the Wall Street, economists, universities, foreigners, migrants, etc., etc. - everybody will be blamed, but him. And not only the public will trust him: they will go on rampage, organising pogroms against those they blame.