IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal
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  IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal
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Author Topic: IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal  (Read 2873 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #25 on: August 27, 2016, 05:27:27 PM »

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.

And the signs of that in MN are?

The fact that it has gone from the most Democratic state in the nation in 1984 to a swing state with a PVI of D+2 today?

But it has a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators and has voted Democratic every year since 1984! A similar reason to why West Virginia was easily won by Kerry in 2004, and Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Ignoring the countless reasons as to why this isn't a comparable example his post said Democrats "will not be competitive in any statewide elections." Democrats still have the Governorship and a Senate seat in West Virginia, so the analogy fails even there.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #26 on: August 27, 2016, 06:24:49 PM »

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.

And the signs of that in MN are?

The fact that it has gone from the most Democratic state in the nation in 1984 to a swing state with a PVI of D+2 today?

It went Dem in 1984 because the Dem candidate was Senator there for years. 
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Figueira
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« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2016, 10:55:02 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2016, 09:27:26 AM by Brittain33 »

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.

And the signs of that in MN are?

The fact that it has gone from the most Democratic state in the nation in 1984 to a swing state with a PVI of D+2 today?

(personal attack deleted by mod.)

(...) ExtremRepublican is very wrong. Also Louisiana's R trend has peaked, I'd add.
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Figueira
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« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2016, 12:58:56 AM »

Yeah, I could easily see MN being the last Democratic holdout in the Midwest (even after IL). There are no signs of the state trending Republican at all.

But PVI!
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2016, 01:02:02 AM »

People always talk about Minnesota being a lily-white state but that's kind of dated. We're still whiter than the national average yes, but as of the last Census we were only about 83% non-Hispanic white. Hennepin County went from about 80% non-Hispanic white in the 2000 Census to about 70% in 2010. At that rate it's less than 2/3 non-Hispanic white now. And just 72% of births in Minnesota in 2011 (obviously less now) were from non-Hispanic white mothers.

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.
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windjammer
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« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2016, 08:34:17 AM »

A lot of hot takes in this thread wow!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2016, 12:34:36 PM »

People always talk about Minnesota being a lily-white state but that's kind of dated. We're still whiter than the national average yes, but as of the last Census we were only about 83% non-Hispanic white. Hennepin County went from about 80% non-Hispanic white in the 2000 Census to about 70% in 2010. At that rate it's less than 2/3 non-Hispanic white now. And just 72% of births in Minnesota in 2011 (obviously less now) were from non-Hispanic white mothers.

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.
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Miles
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« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2016, 12:43:41 PM »

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.

And the signs of that in MN are?

The fact that it has gone from the most Democratic state in the nation in 1984 to a swing state with a PVI of D+2 today?

Wow, Democrats are really screwed in GA! It was D+14 in 1980 and is R+6 now - no reason they should try to compete there in the future...
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2016, 02:30:04 PM »

Sorry, ExtremeRepublican... I like you, but I am pretty sure you are completely wrong here.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #34 on: August 28, 2016, 04:24:49 PM »

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.

And the signs of that in MN are?

The fact that it has gone from the most Democratic state in the nation in 1984 to a swing state with a PVI of D+2 today?

Wow, Democrats are really screwed in GA! It was D+14 in 1980 and is R+6 now - no reason they should try to compete there in the future...
That's because Georgia's own Jimmy Carter was on the ticket in both 1976 and 1980, and won there both times, so that's why the PVI was so Dem. And Minnesota may be trending R in districts 7 and 8, but it seems to be cancelled out by a Democratic trend in the other parts.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #35 on: August 28, 2016, 05:54:02 PM »

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.
Are you serious? Come on.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #36 on: August 29, 2016, 09:04:29 AM »

Anyway, saying Minnesota will trend R just because it is quite white, is a silly argument. Minnesota has a long history of progressive politics.

Also, it is notably that in states with lower minority populations, whites are often less Republican. If whites in the Deep South voted like West Virginia whites, Democrats would hold nearly all statewide offices in the deep south and Obama would have won or been competitive in all of them.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2016, 08:38:51 PM »

This thread sort of changed topic, but this district the last several cycles has been D in presidential years and toss-up in mid-term years. Blum won by 2 points two years ago and Braley (D) won by 1 point in 2010.

2008 and 2012 this district was safe D and it was no where close.
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JMT
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« Reply #38 on: August 29, 2016, 09:11:44 PM »

This thread sort of changed topic, but this district the last several cycles has been D in presidential years and toss-up in mid-term years. Blum won by 2 points two years ago and Braley (D) won by 1 point in 2010.

2008 and 2012 this district was safe D and it was no where close.

Exactly, and since this year is a presidential year, that's why I think Blum will end up losing. The district's PVI is D+5, which is winnable in a midterm wave for Republicans, but likely impossible this year. Blum was only able to win by 2% in an enormous Republican wave; this time presidential turnout and a better opponent will likely sink him.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #39 on: August 29, 2016, 09:13:36 PM »

This thread sort of changed topic, but this district the last several cycles has been D in presidential years and toss-up in mid-term years. Blum won by 2 points two years ago and Braley (D) won by 1 point in 2010.

2008 and 2012 this district was safe D and it was no where close.
Interesting. 2008 was a massive Democratic wave, and 2010 was a massive Republican wave (looked it up, Braley actually won by 2 in 2010). 2012 was not as strong of a Dem year as 2008, but Braley won 55-40 against his 2010 opponent (must have been weak, he doesn't even have a Wikipedia page!), other candidates took the remaining 5%. This year, it WILL be competitive.
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VAR
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« Reply #40 on: December 12, 2020, 04:12:59 AM »

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.
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WD
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« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2020, 04:20:50 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2020, 04:24:19 AM by Perdue-Warnock voter 4 Candidate Quality »

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.


Obama won this district by 13 points,
It won't be competitive Smiley

This district is not in the part of Iowa where Trump will do well. Where Trump will overpeform is the third and fourth districts.  Even if Trump wins the state, both the first and second district will still likely go for Clinton by double digits.

Yikes, people were really overconfident in 2016.
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VAR
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« Reply #42 on: December 12, 2020, 04:27:05 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2020, 04:30:41 AM by incredibly WEAK candidate kamala harris »

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.


Obama won this district by 13 points,
It won't be competitive Smiley


Yikes, people were really overconfident in 2016.

Yeah, but (I think?) there were some Republicans who said Cobb and Gwinnett couldn't possibly flip. It's not that surprising actually, people on this forum in 2016 were stuck in the 2004 playing field (and some people still are).
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WD
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« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2020, 04:37:55 AM »

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.


Obama won this district by 13 points,
It won't be competitive Smiley


Yikes, people were really overconfident in 2016.

Yeah, but (I think?) there were some Republicans who said Cobb and Gwinnett couldn't possibly flip. It's not that surprising actually, people on this forum in 2016 were stuck in the 2004 playing field (and some people still are).


To be fair, Romney won Cobb by 13% so it wasn’t that easy to foresee, (or maybe their were signs back then?). But people definitely had their heads in the sand regarding signs that Democrats were collapsing in heavily WWC areas. There was a SUSA poll showing Trump+12 in MN-08 in 2016 (he won by 15), and people were pretty quick to dismiss it: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249461.25
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VAR
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« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2020, 05:14:04 AM »

To be fair, Romney won Cobb by 13% so it wasn’t that easy to foresee, (or maybe their were signs back then?). But people definitely had their heads in the sand regarding signs that Democrats were collapsing in heavily WWC areas. There was a SUSA poll showing Trump+12 in MN-08 in 2016 (he won by 15), and people were pretty quick to dismiss it: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249461.25

Quote from: Seriously?
Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244083.0

Also, lol at that MN-08 poll thread. And it's not like that's the only poll showing a D collapse in WWC areas, there were many, many others, like these Siena polls of NY-01 and NY-19.
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