IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal

[Heisenberg]

This is an internal, so take with a grain of salt, but Rod Blum leads his challenger 50-43 in this poll.

Blum: 50
Vernon: 43
Undecided: 7

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/322089272/Iowa-1st-Congressional-District-Race-Polling-Memo-8-26-16#fullscreen&from_embed

This is the second Blum internal I've seen (the other was from early April), and both had him up. This race will be competitive.

[Heisenberg]

Good point on RRH about how Trump's over performance in Iowa could help carry Blum. I'm skeptical, especially since RRH tends to be Kos-level bullish on Congressional races, but I think it's a fair point. This could be closer than thought

I first saw this on RRH (yes, I know that they're considered the Republican version of Daily Kos). Someone said that 538 rates this firm a B but I couldn't confirm it (did not see this company on 538's list). The district is a few points to the left of Iowa. I have no doubt that Blum will overperform Trump, but whether it is enough remains to be seen. I predict that if Trump wins Iowa, he pulls Blum across. If not, he's toast.

BTW, I also saw a WI-08 poll on RRH. I'll post that one too.

[Heisenberg]

This district is not in the part of Iowa where Trump will do well. Where Trump will overpeform is the third and fourth districts.  Even if Trump wins the state, both the first and second district will still likely go for Clinton by double digits.

The fourth is clearly Trump area, but I'm not sure about the third (Des Moines is in the 3rd). It has Des Moines, which was very friendly to Rubio in the caucus. Trump also did well in the Mississippi River counties, winning all but two of them.

[Heisenberg]

The LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack is going completely like the TX-OK-KS-NE-SD-ND one, and within 10 years, Democrats will not have any non-inner city seats in any of those five states and will not be competitive in any statewide elections.

And the signs of that in MN are?

The fact that it has gone from the most Democratic state in the nation in 1984 to a swing state with a PVI of D+2 today?

Wow, Democrats are really screwed in GA! It was D+14 in 1980 and is R+6 now - no reason they should try to compete there in the future...

That's because Georgia's own Jimmy Carter was on the ticket in both 1976 and 1980, and won there both times, so that's why the PVI was so Dem. And Minnesota may be trending R in districts 7 and 8, but it seems to be cancelled out by a Democratic trend in the other parts.

[Heisenberg]

This thread sort of changed topic, but this district the last several cycles has been D in presidential years and toss-up in mid-term years. Blum won by 2 points two years ago and Braley (D) won by 1 point in 2010.

2008 and 2012 this district was safe D and it was no where close.

Interesting. 2008 was a massive Democratic wave, and 2010 was a massive Republican wave (looked it up, Braley actually won by 2 in 2010). 2012 was not as strong of a Dem year as 2008, but Braley won 55-40 against his 2010 opponent (must have been weak, he doesn't even have a Wikipedia page!), other candidates took the remaining 5%. This year, it WILL be competitive.