IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal

[WD]

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.

Obama won this district by 13 points,
It won't be competitive

This district is not in the part of Iowa where Trump will do well. Where Trump will overpeform is the third and fourth districts.  Even if Trump wins the state, both the first and second district will still likely go for Clinton by double digits.

Yikes, people were really overconfident in 2016.

[WD]

So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.

Obama won this district by 13 points,
It won't be competitive

Yikes, people were really overconfident in 2016.

Yeah, but (I think?) there were some Republicans who said Cobb and Gwinnett couldn't possibly flip. It's not that surprising actually, people on this forum in 2016 were stuck in the 2004 playing field (and some people still are).

To be fair, Romney won Cobb by 13% so it wasn’t that easy to foresee, (or maybe their were signs back then?). But people definitely had their heads in the sand regarding signs that Democrats were collapsing in heavily WWC areas. There was a SUSA poll showing Trump+12 in MN-08 in 2016 (he won by 15), and people were pretty quick to dismiss it: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249461.25