IA-01: Blum up 7 in his internal

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So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.

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So regardless of any trends in the past, there's no reason to expect that to continue. Also the premise that even MN-01 and MN-08 will turn into safe R seats in just 10 years is also pretty ludicrous.

Are people actually saying that about MN-08? LOL considering Nolan survived 2014 with GP candidate on the ballot.

This aged like milk.

Obama won this district by 13 points,
It won't be competitive

Yikes, people were really overconfident in 2016.

Yeah, but (I think?) there were some Republicans who said Cobb and Gwinnett couldn't possibly flip. It's not that surprising actually, people on this forum in 2016 were stuck in the 2004 playing field (and some people still are).

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To be fair, Romney won Cobb by 13% so it wasn’t that easy to foresee, (or maybe their were signs back then?). But people definitely had their heads in the sand regarding signs that Democrats were collapsing in heavily WWC areas. There was a SUSA poll showing Trump+12 in MN-08 in 2016 (he won by 15), and people were pretty quick to dismiss it: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249461.25

Trump is winning both counties. It's not even a question.

Cobb is still reliably Republican. Gwinnett is as well. The dynamics of Cobb will not show a 13-point shift to the Ds from 2012. The dynamics of Gwinnett will not show a 9-point shift.

It's an Atlas pipe dream that either of those two counties end up in the Hillary! camp come November. But you can dream, red avatars, even as the polling tightens back to pre-convention levels.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244083.0

Also, lol at that MN-08 poll thread. And it's not like that's the only poll showing a D collapse in WWC areas, there were many, many others, like these Siena polls of NY-01 and NY-19.