WI-08: Gallagher has a 16-point lead over Nelson (Public Opinion Strategies)

[Heisenberg]

It's early, and internal, and has Gallagher up in name recognition. It will tighten, but I think they're trying to change the narrative from "this is a pure tossup to this race leans, or at least tilts, Republican." I personally rate this Lean R. They also had Trump up 3 points against Clinton (still within the margin of error). 40% for Trump, 37% for Clinton, the rest either undecided or for another candidate.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/local/2016/08/23/poll-gallagher-has-early-lead-over-nelson/89215636/
(Fixed link)

[Mr.Phips]

I never had this down as a Dem pickup.  Even when Dems do pick this seat up, they only ever hold it for a term or two before losing it again.

[Heisenberg]

I never had this down as a Dem pickup.  Even when Dems do pick this seat up, they only ever hold it for a term or two before losing it again.

I agree that if Dems do pick this one up, they'll likely lose it. Romney narrowly carried it in 2012 IIRC (maybe Ryan helped a bit, but I highly doubt it since he's not from there). I have seen some people on this board (check the House predictions thread) say that they think it flips, but I really don't think it will. Democrats have better seats to go after.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nah, this is tossup tilt-D.

[windjammer]

This is this kind of district that Clinton will heavily overperform Trump.
I think the democrats win but lose it in 2018

[Gass3268]

In the last Marquette Poll this was the only region in the state where Trump had a lead. Wouldn't surprise me if this remains Republican.

[windjammer]

In the last Marquette Poll this was the only region in the state where Trump had a lead. Wouldn't surprise me if this remains Republican.

Seriously?
I'm surprised lol

[Vosem]

The presidential section of this poll has Trump doing as well as Romney, which is obviously bogus. I would still say this is Tossup/Tilt R (or even Leans R), since the local Republicans are very distanced from Trump, Gallagher is a good candidate, and the area is still pretty Republican downballot. (Gallagher running 13 points ahead of Trump, being up 16 if Trump is up 3, could very well be legit, on the other hand). If this district flips, Republicans are probably having a bad night.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The presidential section of this poll has Trump doing as well as Romney, which is obviously bogus. I would still say this is Tossup/Tilt R (or even Leans R), since the local Republicans are very distanced from Trump, Gallagher is a good candidate, and the area is still pretty Republican downballot. (Gallagher running 13 points ahead of Trump, being up 16 if Trump is up 3, could very well be legit, on the other hand). If this district flips, Republicans are probably having a bad night.

Gallagher isn't a bad candidate per say, but I wouldn't call him a top-tier recruit.  The Democrats recruited an excellent candidate who is also from the right part of the district (and probably has higher name ID given that prior to serving as Outagamie County Executive, he'd been the State Assembly Majority leader and the LG nominee in 2010).  Nelson also won his current position by beating a Republican who had served as State Treasurer from 1995-2007, so he's definitely battle-tested.