When will Nevada no longer be considered a swing state?

[Xing]

Back in 2008, it was understandable to consider Nevada a swing state. Bush won it in 2004 (although polls had a Republican bias that year as well), and polls showed McCain narrowly ahead for most of the summer. After McCain plummeted in the polls, Obama held a narrowly lead, and most people considered it Toss-Up/Lean D. In the end, polls massively underestimated Obama, and people gawked at his 12.4% margin of victory.

Then, in 2010, polls showed Harry Reid narrowly losing to Sharron Angle. Most people believed the polls, and assumed that Reid would probably lose, and that the race was Lean R. Reid not only won, he won by 5.5%, making everyone's jaws drop again.

In the 2012 presidential election, Nevada was again considered a Toss-Up, and people still trusted the polls which showed Obama up by only 1-3%, and assumed it was a very winnable state for Romney. Once again, the polls were wrong, and Obama coasted to a nearly 7% win, despite all of the various factors that were supposed to be working in Romney's favor (high Mormon population, bad housing market, weak job growth, etc.) While Dean Heller did manage to hang on to his seat, the polls for that race also had a Republican bias, generally showing him up by 4-6%, leading most to believe that he was relatively safe against his flawed opponent, Shelley Berkley. He won by 1.2%, barely overperforming Romney, and was helped by many Obama voters voting for NOTA.

Now, once again, people are trusting polls, and calling Nevada a Toss-Up, despite demographics and recent results in Nevada suggesting that Trump should lose in a rout. We'll hear people say that Hillary's ~2% lead in the polls shows that "something MUST be going on in Nevada" or suggesting that white voters without a college degree must be causing Trump to overperform in a state that demographics suggest he should underperform in. I'm confidently predicting that Hillary will comfortably win Nevada, probably by more than even I'm predicting, and AGAIN people's jaws will drop, because Nevada was supposed to be super close.

Anyway, on to the question at hand. When will people stop considering Nevada a swing state? Why do people trust polls showing Nevada closer than demographic models suggest should be possible, and yet dismiss polls showing states like Kentucky, Kansas, Oregon, and Connecticut close? What margin of victory for Hillary would it take to put to rest the idea that Nevada is winnable for Republicans at the national level (barring a change in fortune for Republicans among Latinos)?

[Present]

Well, there is a notable difference between Nevada and Kentucky, Oregon, Kansas, and Connecticut. The latter were won by the same party for this entire century while Nevada was won by Bush in 04. Unlike Indiana, people didn't view it as a fluke. Even if Trump looses Nevada by large margins this year, I think the GOP will still believe that they can win NV if they can get more support from Hispanics.
Furthermore, several polls are showing that NV is consistently a surprisingly (and oddly) competitive state. The other states you mentioned have far less polling data on them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Who ever won Nevada has won the election in every election since 1908 except one in 1976

[Kingpoleon]

Um... The last poll(a PPP one Nov. 2-3) in the Nevada Senate race showed Heller up two. Of the last three before that, one showed him up six, one showed him up three, and one showed him tied. Also, Van Der Beek way over performed the polls.

The one that showed him up six was a SUSA poll, so...

[Xing]

Who ever won Nevada has won the election in every election since 1908 except one in 1976

The same is almost true of New Mexico (which Gore won by a mere 300 votes, though that actually makes New Mexico the ultimate popular vote bellwether), but no one considers it a swing state anymore.

[Blue3]

Nevada isn't considered a swing state now, and it wasn't back in 2012 either.

[IceSpear]

I mostly agree with you, but it's worth noting that the pattern doesn't guarantee anything. During the 2014 cycle, on optimistic days, I argued that polls underestimated Democrats overall in every election since 2004. This was true, and remained consistent through midterms, presidentials, pro Dem waves, and pro GOP waves. So I figured it was likely they would in 2014 as well. We all know how that turned out.

[Xing]

I mostly agree with you, but it's worth noting that the pattern doesn't guarantee anything. During the 2014 cycle, on optimistic days, I argued that polls underestimated Democrats overall in every election since 2004. This was true, and remained consistent through midterms, presidentials, pro Dem waves, and pro GOP waves. So I figured it was likely they would in 2014 as well. We all know how that turned out.

That's a good point, and it's certainly possible that polling in general this year could have a Democratic bias. What I can't imagine happening, though, is Hillary doing about 8 points better in CO, VA, and PA than NV, and even doing better in OH and FL than NV. It's also worth mentioning that sometimes, polling errors in states just don't go away. Last year, I thought that Kentucky polls could very well have improved, and that pollsters might have fixed some of the issues that led to their polls having Democratic bias in the past. We all know how that turned out. Nevada's a rapidly changing state, so it's even more understandable why it would be a tough state to poll.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

2020 after Clinton crushes Trump by 13 points in November.

[TrumpCard]

I don't know that it's a "swing" state now.  Battleground is a better term.  It's been more than 2 points center-left in the last two elections.  Trump is doing better there now than I expected though. 

[LLR]

Nevada polling is always awful, but I think it's Lean now and will be Likely by 2024-ish.

[Ljube]

Nevada will remain a swing state for a foreseeable time.

[5280]

When a Republican president can win without Nevada, then it's not a swing state anymore.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Hard to say, but I think by 2024 demographics will finally have reached the point of no return. Until then it should be quite competitive (particularly with its many uneducated white voters)

[Figueira]

Hard to say, but I think by 2024 demographics will finally have reached the point of no return. Until then it should be quite competitive (particularly with its many uneducated white voters)

I love your display name haha

[Medal506]

It could go to trump