Who will control the Senate after 2018?

[AGA]

There is a very good chance that Democrats will take the Senate in this election, but what will happen in 2018? There are a lot of Democratic incumbents in Republican states (MT, ND, MO, IN, WV) that will be up for reelection, and it will be a midterm election. How much does this election depend on the party in the White House?

[heatcharger]

Gonna be bold and say Democrats. They'll pick up IL, WI, IN, NH, PA, FL, NC, and hold on to NV of course. That'll put them at 54 seats. That gives them a 4 seat cushion, and if I had to guess which 2018 seats they'll lose, I'll say WV, IN, and MO go to the wolves. Democrats would at 51 in that scenario.

The 4 Romney seats are toast in a Dem midterm, and their only plausible pick up opportunity in a neutral year is NV.

I don't agree, I think Tester and Heitkamp have the ability to survive.

[Heisenberg]

The 4 Romney seats are toast in a Dem midterm

I think OH and WI would flip before MT and ND. But yeah, it'll almost certainly be Republicans if Clinton wins the presidency.

Ohio
Kasich vs. Brown is Safe R.
Tiberi will make it Tilt R in a neutral year, Lean R in a small wave, Likely R in a 2010/2014 sized one
Mandel would do better than in 2012, tossup in a neutral year, Lean R in a big wave

Wisconsin
I think Duffy will run, if so, he'll overperform Walker, he is less polarizing than either Walker or Baldwin, will be favored unless it's a Dem wave. Tossup in a neutral year, Lean R if R wave.

[Xing]

Republicans are obviously the favorites. If the senate is 50/50 or 51/49 D (both of which are very plausible), Democrats can almost certainly kiss their majority goodbye in 2018. If the Democrats have a great year this year, and end up with 54 or even 55 seats, they have a chance to hold it, but it's probably 50/50 at best. Manchin is toast, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp are underdogs, and there are other potentially vulnerable Democrats as well (Tester, Brown, not to mention the seat in VA.) NV is the only realistic pick-up opportunity for Democrats, so they're facing an awful map.

[Vosem]

Hard to see how Republicans aren't massively favored. The Democrats' best chance is probably is either gaining in the high 50s in 2016 or the actual election of Trump as President, both of which seem like very longshots.

[IceSpear]

Republicans obviously.

[smoltchanov]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

[IceSpear]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

Actually, they had a chance to win NV/AZ and some people thought NE as well, though that turned out to not be true. It would've been hilarious to see a Senate class with only 5 Republicans.

Banner year? I wouldn't really say that. Most seats the Republicans won in 2014 were in deep red territory that they'll hold easily in 2020. Democrats would be able to target CO/GA/IA/MT/NC and ME if Collins retires. Nowhere near as many potential targets as this year for instance, where Dems could plausibly net 10-12 seats if everything breaks their way (same for the GOP in 2018.) There's also not even any "gimme" seats, like IL this year, or SD/WV/MT in 2014.

[tmthforu94]

If I were to guess right now, I'd say Republicans lose Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania this year (still holding out hope for Young), leaving the Senate tied. Republicans easily take back the Senate in 2018 by winning Montana, North Dakota (I think Heitkamp will keep this race very close), Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and 1-2 more seats at-large, giving them 56-57 seats.

[Ogre Mage]

Republicans will.  But we will get it back in 2020.

[IceSpear]

Republicans will.  But we will get it back in 2020.

But what will happen in 2022?!

[smoltchanov]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

Actually, they had a chance to win NV/AZ and some people thought NE as well, though that turned out to not be true. It would've been hilarious to see a Senate class with only 5 Republicans.

Banner year? I wouldn't really say that. Most seats the Republicans won in 2014 were in deep red territory that they'll hold easily in 2020. Democrats would be able to target CO/GA/IA/MT/NC and ME if Collins retires. Nowhere near as many potential targets as this year for instance, where Dems could plausibly net 10-12 seats if everything breaks their way (same for the GOP in 2018.) There's also not even any "gimme" seats, like IL this year, or SD/WV/MT in 2014.

5 or 6 is enough for me to call it "banner year". And this year i see ony 1-2 "gimme" seats, and D+4  (5 at most) shift in Senate for 50-50 or (in best case for Democrats) 51-49

[IceSpear]

Republicans, of course. In 2012 Democrats won everything feasible and then some, so 2018 will be dire. But 2020 will be banner year for them in Senate.....

Actually, they had a chance to win NV/AZ and some people thought NE as well, though that turned out to not be true. It would've been hilarious to see a Senate class with only 5 Republicans.

Banner year? I wouldn't really say that. Most seats the Republicans won in 2014 were in deep red territory that they'll hold easily in 2020. Democrats would be able to target CO/GA/IA/MT/NC and ME if Collins retires. Nowhere near as many potential targets as this year for instance, where Dems could plausibly net 10-12 seats if everything breaks their way (same for the GOP in 2018.) There's also not even any "gimme" seats, like IL this year, or SD/WV/MT in 2014.

5 or 6 is enough for me to call it "banner year". And this year i see ony 1-2 "gimme" seats, and D+4  (5 at most) shift in Senate for 50-50 or (in best case for Democrats) 51-49

If you think Democrats could only gain 5 seats max, that means you're calling (presumably) McCain, Rubio, Blunt, Burr, and Portman 100% safe, which is ridiculous. They are all favorites as of now, but they're far from locks.

Unless you just meant your personal prediction, in which case I agree. But I was referring to the best case scenario for Democrats, not the median scenario.

[smoltchanov]

^ I never consider "best case scenario" to be realistic, except in case of really BIG wave. And i don't see a wave yet this year. Yes, Trump is unpopular, but Clinton is not popular too (just to lesser extent), and majority of voters will hold ther noses and vote NOT FOR Clinton or Trump, but - AGAINST Trump or Clinton.

Personally i consider Blunt, Portman and McCain to be rather strong favorites in their states, and Rubio and Burr - more narrow favorites too. Of course - something (big scandal) may happen, but in absence of it i would predict all of them win (albeit - many rather narrowly). So, for me there are Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin... I am reasonably sure Democrats will win last 2, and 2-3 of first 4

So, may be "banner" was too strong, but 2020 will be a good year for Democrats. 2018, on the contrary, may be bad or very bad...

[windjammer]

Lol at people who believe that democrats will only end up at 50-50 but already give republicans many pick ups in 2018. Apparently you can overperform and survive a wave only when you're a republican.


To answer the question, democrats will likely have a governing majority after the elections (I'm predicting 54 seats) but republicansare going to pick up as many seats (8 seats), so they will definitely control the senate again after 2018.

[smoltchanov]

Lol at people who believe that democrats will only end up at 50-50 but already give republicans many pick ups in 2018. Apparently you can overperform and survive a wave only when you're a republican.

In fact - Republicans did NOT survive Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008. But recovered rather quickly))))

P.S. No, i don't see 54 Democratic Senators after November except in case Clinton wins by more then 12 points, and not too likely even then))))

[RogueBeaver]

Republicans obviously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are likely to have 50 or more seats and can gave up to 7 depending on OH and FL, in 2016 Senate races. Obviously, in 2018, IN and ND and VA are up in the air and Dems have a Treasurer in Kate Marshall in NV to take on Heller.

Dems hold the cards in Gov elections except FL, and OH, but Nelson and Brown can survive.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Republicans, and it very well may be filibuster-proof control

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The 4 Romney seats are toast in a Dem midterm

I think OH and WI would flip before MT and ND. But yeah, it'll almost certainly be Republicans if Clinton wins the presidency.

It'll almost certainly be Republicans either way. If Trump wins, the Senate will probably still be GOP-controlled. I don't see how Portman or Toomey lose if Trump carries their states. Same with Rubio in Florida. And then, in 2018, Dems are so maxed out that even in a wave, they could probably only add one seat (Nevada) while Claire McCaskill would probably still lose in Missouri.

The only way Republicans don't win it is if Clinton wins in an absolute rout and takes 10+ Senate seats with her. Then, 2018 is probably 2010 redux with Republicans taking a huge swath of House seats (and the majority if they've lost it) and a ton of Senate seats but still not enough to reclaim the majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP won 13 House Seats and 9 Senate Seats. Election projection is predicting a landslide Dem victory for Hillary 348+. Www.electionprojection.com.  A 4-9 seat pickup for Dems in 2016 and a majority in House isn't out of question with Trump.

[Figueira]

Republicans are favored, but let's not lose hope!

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats will in all likelihood gain a narrow majority after 2016. Republicans have even more opportunities in 2018 than Democrats do in 2016, about as many as Republicans in 2014 actually. Republicans would probably be favored to take it over again from the start, and I wouldn't be surprised if its by a large margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans are favored, but let's not lose hope!

52/48:Senate IN, Pa, OH, NH, WI & IL gives hope should Donnelly & Heikamp goes down and Heller is targetted

[Orser67]

Almost certainly Republicans. If Trump wins, Republicans probably keep control of the Senate in 2016, and there are only a couple seats that Dems could plausibly pick up in 2018. If Clinton wins, Dems very likely lose at least a couple seats in 2018, and probably more than that.