How could Gerald Ford have won 1976?

[President Johnson]

The 1976 election was one of the most interesting ones I think. What could Gerald Ford have done (or not done) to win reelection?

Considering that he was a president of the incumbent party which controlled the White House for two terms, that the economic challenges were still big enough, that Vietnam fell although it wasn't his fault and, most important, a president resigned in disgrace two years before, he came pretty close to win. The pardon? It actually didn't play such a large role; Carter didn't attack him directly for it. The gaffe at the debate with "no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe"? I think that keeping Nelson Rockefeller on the ticket could have saved him. Rocky could have delivered NY's electoral votes. Had Ford won only NY in addition, he would have been reelected with 282 electoral votes. Any thoughts?

[Mr.Phips]

The 1976 election was one of the most interesting ones I think. What could Gerald Ford have done (or not done) to win reelection?

Considering that he was a president of the incumbent party which controlled the White House for two terms, that the economic challenges were still big enough, that Vietnam fell although it wasn't his fault and, most important, a president resigned in disgrace two years before, he came pretty close to win. The pardon? It actually didn't play such a large role; Carter didn't attack him directly for it. The gaffe at the debate with "no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe"? I think that keeping Nelson Rockefeller on the ticket could have saved him. Rocky could have delivered NY's electoral votes. Had Ford won only NY in addition, he would have been reelected with 282 electoral votes. Any thoughts?

Yeah I've always thought that replacing Rockefeller with Dole is what cost Ford the election.  Ford only lost New York by four points and Rockefeller likely would have pushed him over the top there.

[Incipimus iterum]

The 1976 election was one of the most interesting ones I think. What could Gerald Ford have done (or not done) to win reelection?

Considering that he was a president of the incumbent party which controlled the White House for two terms, that the economic challenges were still big enough, that Vietnam fell although it wasn't his fault and, most important, a president resigned in disgrace two years before, he came pretty close to win. The pardon? It actually didn't play such a large role; Carter didn't attack him directly for it. The gaffe at the debate with "no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe"? I think that keeping Nelson Rockefeller on the ticket could have saved him. Rocky could have delivered NY's electoral votes. Had Ford won only NY in addition, he would have been reelected with 282 electoral votes. Any thoughts?

Yeah I've always thought that replacing Rockefeller with Dole is what cost Ford the election.  Ford only lost New York by four points and Rockefeller likely would have pushed him over the top there.

That's true, but many people who voted for Ronald Reagan would have been alienated and might've not voted at all if Ford had chosen Neson Rockefeller. Not to mention this news article.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

First, Ford was not running for "reelection," he was running for a full term.  He was the first (and so far, only) person to serve as both president and vice president without ever being elected to either position. 

And second, Ford probably could have won if the campaign had just lasted a few weeks longer.  He would've had more time to make his case, especially considering that he was facing major backlash against the GOP over Watergate.

[Incipimus iterum]

First, Ford was not running for "reelection," he was running for a full term.  He was the first (and so far, only) person to serve as both president and vice president without ever being elected to either position. 

And second, Ford probably could have won if the campaign had just lasted a few weeks longer.  He would've had more time to make his case, especially considering that he was facing major backlash against the GOP over Watergate.

I agree on this point to a extent.

[President Johnson]

First, Ford was not running for "reelection," he was running for a full term.  He was the first (and so far, only) person to serve as both president and vice president without ever being elected to either position. 

And second, Ford probably could have won if the campaign had just lasted a few weeks longer.  He would've had more time to make his case, especially considering that he was facing major backlash against the GOP over Watergate.

I agree on this point to a extent.

Well, I also agree with that. He was trailing by thirty points after the convention and got within the margin of error on election day. That's tremendous.

However, I'd define "reelection" if an incumbent is running for the office he currently holds. What I guess that's a question of definition.

[Arbitrage1980]

If Ford had not made probably the greatest gaffe in a general election debate, when he stated that there is no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe, he most likely would have won. 

It was an interesting election. Unlike today, there were TONS of ticket splitting, and the parties were not as nearly as polarized ideologically.  Eleven states were decided by margin of less than 2%; twenty were decided by less than 5%.  In only 3 states did the winner receive 60%+ of the vote. 

[Mr. Smith]

He couldn't, he got as far as he did because of Carter's little Playboy incident.

[RRusso1982]

I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference.  It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin.  That was the Presidency.  Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe.  The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters.  It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head.  I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis. 

[Nym90]

I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference.  It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin.  That was the Presidency.  Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe.  The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters.  It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head.  I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis. 

Seems plausible. Carter had just enough blue-collar appeal to push him over the top in these two critical states in Ford's home region.

He also could've won by just flipping New York; that would've been more of a reach for him but not out of the question as it was within five points. Perhaps if he had kept Rockefeller as his VP instead of Dole. Dole was a poor running mate who got slaughtered in the debate with Mondale ("Democrat wars") and did little to help Ford with any key constituency. He was supposed to appeal to the base, but he was pretty lackluster as a politician.

[Sumner 1868]

I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference.  It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin.  That was the Presidency.  Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe.  The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters.  It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head.  I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis. 

Seems plausible. Carter had just enough blue-collar appeal to push him over the top in these two critical states in Ford's home region.

He also could've won by just flipping New York; that would've been more of a reach for him but not out of the question as it was within five points. Perhaps if he had kept Rockefeller as his VP instead of Dole. Dole was a poor running mate who got slaughtered in the debate with Mondale ("Democrat wars") and did little to help Ford with any key constituency. He was supposed to appeal to the base, but he was pretty lackluster as a politician.

Actually, I think Wisconsin voted for Carter because of Mondale's appeal. Carter carried all the northwestern counties bordering Minnesota that had rejected Kennedy and Humphrey. Without Mondale, he likely loses the state because his performance in Milwaukee and Madison was lackluster for a Democrat.

[Nym90]

Eh, I'm skeptical of that. VP nominees only help by a few points in their home states, and there's no evidence that they help outside of them in bordering states. Carter was the type of Democrat (culturally less liberal) that rural parts of Wisconsin have historically liked. Remember that Humphrey was himself from Minnesota, so I doubt Mondale at the bottom of the ticket would persuade voters unimpressed with Humphrey.

I think the Mondale pick did help Carter shore up his liberal base to some degree, and helped reassure voters concerned with his lack of experience.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

He couldn't, he got as far as he did because of Carter's little Playboy incident.

That, and the fact that the economy started to improve a bit during the last few months of the campaign.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference.  It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin.  That was the Presidency.  Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe.  The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters.  It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head.  I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis. 

Seems plausible. Carter had just enough blue-collar appeal to push him over the top in these two critical states in Ford's home region.

He also could've won by just flipping New York; that would've been more of a reach for him but not out of the question as it was within five points. Perhaps if he had kept Rockefeller as his VP instead of Dole. Dole was a poor running mate who got slaughtered in the debate with Mondale ("Democrat wars") and did little to help Ford with any key constituency. He was supposed to appeal to the base, but he was pretty lackluster as a politician.

Actually, I think Wisconsin voted for Carter because of Mondale's appeal.

Remember, Humphrey was from Minnesota too, and he lost in Wisconsin.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Not pardon Nixon.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Not pardon Nixon.

Pardoning Nixon was the pragmatic choice for Ford.  If he hadn't done so, the Democrats would have made his trial the biggest thing since Nuremberg.  Ford took his hit early on that issue and it was almost enough to overcome his extreme underdog status.

[Breton Racer]

Had Ford kept Rockefeller instead of replacing him with Dole.

Ford: 274 Electoral Votes
Carter: 264 Electoral Votes

[Plankton5165]

Had he carried Texas and South Carolina. That would get his total to 274. What about Ohio? No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio.

Had Ford carried South Carolina, the Palmetto State would have the longest Republican streak all to itself. (even though it was never won by a Republican since 1876 until 1964.)

[Mr.Phips]

Had he carried Texas and South Carolina. That would get his total to 274. What about Ohio? No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio.

Had Ford carried South Carolina, the Palmetto State would have the longest Republican streak all to itself. (even though it was never won by a Republican since 1876 until 1964.)

South Carolina went 56℅-43℅ for Carter.  Nothing Ford could have done would have won him that state.

[President Johnson]

Not pardon Nixon.

Pardoning Nixon was the pragmatic choice for Ford.  If he hadn't done so, the Democrats would have made his trial the biggest thing since Nuremberg.  Ford took his hit early on that issue and it was almost enough to overcome his extreme underdog status.

Agreed. The pardon was even not used by Carter to slam Ford. 1976 was a prime example for an election, where both candidates did not use personal attacks because both were men of decent character.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Slight change in weather patterns in a few close states. How could he have won comfortably? I don't effing know.

[Liberalrocks]

I think Ford could have won despite the Nixon pardon and was so close.
Slight change in weather may have helped in Ohio and Wisconsin.
Mississippi was very tight too.
I do echo previous thoughts on the Eastern Europe gaffe, without that I think Ford would have caught up to Carter in the Electoral college and possibly won 3 states above. I do think that would have set up a scenario where he would have been elected without winning the popular vote which would have continued the whole "not elected by the people" theme.

I don't think VP selection is that big of a deal although Rockefeller was light years better then Dole.

More time likely would have helped with the gaffe another week and I think Ford would have pulled out the 270.

I think this election is often overlooked for how close it was.

Ford was a good man, sane moderate politics. I actually wish he would have won that race.

[hopper]

Ford got slaughtered in the South so if he did better in the South he would have won the election. Virginia was the only Southern State that Ford won. Ford also lost Pennsylvania and Ohio. You can't lose Ohio and except to win the election since no Presidentual Nominee since 1960(JFK) has won the Presidency without winning Ohio!

[All Along The Watchtower]

Had Ford kept Rockefeller instead of replacing him with Dole.

Ford: 274 Electoral Votes
Carter: 264 Electoral Votes

The problem with this is that Rockefeller was almost universally despised within the Republican Party - particularly the Reaganites, whose candidate came uncomfortably close to defeating Ford in the primaries -but also within the Ford White House itself.

[Buffalo Bill]

I just want to point out how meaningless polls are.  Carter led by 50.