I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference. It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin. That was the Presidency. Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe. The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters. It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head. I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis.
Seems plausible. Carter had just enough blue-collar appeal to push him over the top in these two critical states in Ford's home region.
He also could've won by just flipping New York; that would've been more of a reach for him but not out of the question as it was within five points. Perhaps if he had kept Rockefeller as his VP instead of Dole. Dole was a poor running mate who got slaughtered in the debate with Mondale ("Democrat wars") and did little to help Ford with any key constituency. He was supposed to appeal to the base, but he was pretty lackluster as a politician.
Actually, I think Wisconsin voted for Carter because of Mondale's appeal. Carter carried all the northwestern counties bordering Minnesota that had rejected Kennedy and Humphrey. Without Mondale, he likely loses the state because his performance in Milwaukee and Madison was lackluster for a Democrat.
