Morning Consult (end-August): Trump gaining
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  Morning Consult (end-August): Trump gaining
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Author Topic: Morning Consult (end-August): Trump gaining  (Read 1494 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 28, 2016, 08:41:23 AM »

43% Hillary Clinton (-1)
40% Donald Trump (+2)

39% Hillary Clinton (nc)
37% Donald Trump (+1)
  8% Gary Johnson (nc)
  3% Jill Stein (-1)

https://morningconsult.com/2016/08/28/trump-gains-ground-clinton-black-voters-still-wary
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2016, 08:44:57 AM »

Toss up tilt rep!
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Knives
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2016, 08:48:34 AM »

Sad!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2016, 08:49:17 AM »

Also:

It seems we are not getting new YouGov/CBS swing state polls today ...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2016, 08:56:51 AM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2016, 09:00:13 AM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.

Ugh these bouncy online/ trackers will wreak havoc with the aggregates.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2016, 09:12:55 AM »

Poll schedule for next week:

PPP: national poll (Tuesday ?)

Metro News/Repass Inc.: West Virginia poll (Friday)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2016, 09:16:55 AM »

Also:

It seems we are not getting new YouGov/CBS swing state polls today ...
Why?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2016, 09:23:31 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2016, 09:25:08 AM by Fusionmunster »

Its sucks that all were getting is this crap. Gravis, Morning Consult, Reuters, Rasmussen. We havent gotten a reputable National poll outside of Quinnipiac in weeks.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2016, 10:00:59 AM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2016, 10:02:26 AM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.


This is their first cycle, 538 is just guessing.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2016, 10:03:21 AM »

Can we please put the margin in the subject line?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2016, 10:10:38 AM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.


This is their first cycle, 538 is just guessing.
Just guessing? Sigh...

I guess they compared it to weighted average. Simplified: for example, ABC pollster has some house effect X. If Morning Consults' Polls are showing similar results, it means that it have approximately the same house effect as ABC.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2016, 10:11:51 AM »

Also:

It seems we are not getting new YouGov/CBS swing state polls today ...
Why?
Prime vacation weeks. Low TV viewership, most likely. Things will heat up after Labor Day.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2016, 10:15:40 AM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.


This is their first cycle, 538 is just guessing.
Just guessing? Sigh...

I guess they compared it to weighted average. Simplified: for example, ABC pollster has some house effect X. If Morning Consults' Polls are showing similar results, it means that it have approximately the same house effect as ABC.

I know how house effects works.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2016, 10:25:00 AM »

Some people put way too much stock in minor poll fluctuations.  Sean Trende (the polling guy for RCP) has pointed out that polls should be noisy; when the results of several polls are too smooth or consistent, it's suspicious.  Nate Silver's also got a good illustration of how noisy even a tracking poll is likely to be; see https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/769565612955824128.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2016, 10:52:42 AM »

Some people put way too much stock in minor poll fluctuations.  Sean Trende (the polling guy for RCP) has pointed out that polls should be noisy; when the results of several polls are too smooth or consistent, it's suspicious.  Nate Silver's also got a good illustration of how noisy even a tracking poll is likely to be; see https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/769565612955824128.

Yep. Red hacks seem to not understand it. When they don't like the result, they say: It is junk! Cheesy
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2016, 12:07:45 PM »

Trump has been at 40% in every poll taken. As with Hillary she has been near 50%. Obamas approvals are hovering near 50%. And Clinton is well positioned to duplicate Obamas 2012 margin of 3.5 million votes.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2016, 12:10:15 PM »

Also, Republicans lead by 4 (52%-48%) on the generic congressional ballot. Quite surprising when compared with previous polls.
It is among Undeciders, I guess.

v16g18 If the election for for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the
following candidates are you most likely to vote for?

Democratic candidate 850 42%
Republican candidate 780 39%
Don’t Know / No Opinion 376 19%

v16g18_ln As of today, do you lean more toward the... (N=359)
Democratic candidate 172 48%
Republican candidate 187 52%
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Alcon
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« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2016, 01:30:33 PM »

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.


This is their first cycle, 538 is just guessing.
Just guessing? Sigh...

I guess they compared it to weighted average. Simplified: for example, ABC pollster has some house effect X. If Morning Consults' Polls are showing similar results, it means that it have approximately the same house effect as ABC.

I know how house effects works.

That's not "guessing," though.  You're acting like that adjustment is less reliable than an adjustment based on lean in past cycle, which I don't believe is the case at all.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2016, 02:16:32 PM »


Can't wait to see how far Justice has collapsed from their last poll that had him up 20.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2016, 04:15:00 PM »

Also, Republicans lead by 4 (52%-48%) on the generic congressional ballot. Quite surprising when compared with previous polls.
This thing was a little bit whiter than your typical poll in the cross-tabs, but they only measure for black, white, hispanic. no other.
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