Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.
This is their first cycle, 538 is just guessing.
I guess they compared it to weighted average. Simplified: for example, ABC pollster has some house effect X. If Morning Consults' Polls are showing similar results, it means that it have approximately the same house effect as ABC.
I know how house effects works.
That's not "guessing," though. You're acting like that adjustment is less reliable than an adjustment based on lean in past cycle, which I don't believe is the case at all.
