Morning Consult (end-August): Trump gaining

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Also:

It seems we are not getting new YouGov/CBS swing state polls today ...

Why?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.

No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Too bad we probably won't be getting any network pols for two more weeks (alter Labor Day). MC on average has always leaned a bit more Trump.

No, it has not. It has C+0.2 house effect accroding to 538.

This is their first cycle, 538 is just guessing.

Just guessing? Sigh...

I guess they compared it to weighted average. Simplified: for example, ABC pollster has some house effect X. If Morning Consults' Polls are showing similar results, it means that it have approximately the same house effect as ABC.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Some people put way too much stock in minor poll fluctuations.  Sean Trende (the polling guy for RCP) has pointed out that polls should be noisy; when the results of several polls are too smooth or consistent, it's suspicious.  Nate Silver's also got a good illustration of how noisy even a tracking poll is likely to be; see https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/769565612955824128.

Yep. Red hacks seem to not understand it. When they don't like the result, they say: It is junk!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Also, Republicans lead by 4 (52%-48%) on the generic congressional ballot. Quite surprising when compared with previous polls.

It is among Undeciders, I guess.

v16g18 If the election for for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the
following candidates are you most likely to vote for?
Democratic candidate 850 42%
Republican candidate 780 39%
Don’t Know / No Opinion 376 19%

v16g18_ln As of today, do you lean more toward the... (N=359)
Democratic candidate 172 48%
Republican candidate 187 52%