Why is Trump rebounding slowly?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:25:36 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Why is Trump rebounding slowly?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Why is Trump rebounding slowly?  (Read 1767 times)
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,831


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 28, 2016, 01:42:08 PM »

What's causing his surge?
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2016, 01:43:05 PM »

He's not really surging. We've seen time and again this cycle that Trump's support stays mostly flat down near 41-42% while Clinton's rises and falls.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2016, 01:47:25 PM »

This happens when he takes a short break from gaffes.
Logged
Misoir
Rookie
**
Posts: 73
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2016, 01:49:11 PM »

Either the polls are started to become less biased in favor of crooked Hillary or Trump is pulling so far ahead that even these lying polls can't completely deny it. That anyone thinks the Benghazi butcher would be winning by 10 or 15 points is so laughable.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2016, 01:57:49 PM »

Either the polls are started to become less biased in favor of crooked Hillary or Trump is pulling so far ahead that even these lying polls can't completely deny it. That anyone thinks the Benghazi butcher would be winning by 10 or 15 points is so laughable.

..... "politically correct" ....
...... "trump train" .......
...... "crooked Hillary" ........
...... "lying rigged polls" .....
......"Benghazi butcher" ......
...... "Polly want a cracker" .....


Logged
Breton Racer
Harrytruman48
Rookie
**
Posts: 216
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2016, 02:01:11 PM »

He's not, the only reason her lead, according to RCP, is only 6 points, is because of LA Times, which even when her a leads were double digits she was only leading in those polls by low single digits. When polls showed a tie or small Trump leads, he was leading by 7 in the LA Times poll.
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,093
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2016, 02:05:11 PM »

What is this surge you speak of?  Oh yeah, a tie in the LA Times poll is what Trump supporters consider a surge.  They will take anything they can get. Sad!
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2016, 02:05:21 PM »

We haven't gotten many quality polls in the last two weeks, so shaky/junk online panels and tracking polls are filling the void.

Hopefully we get another round of gold-standard polls before Labor Day.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,624
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2016, 02:25:19 PM »

Clinton's bounce subsiding a bit and perhaps the fact that during the Olympics the public at large didn't pay much attention to the presidential race.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2016, 02:31:56 PM »

What rebound?
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2016, 02:32:24 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2016, 02:36:50 PM by Likely Voter »

We haven't gotten many quality polls in the last two weeks, so shaky/junk online panels and tracking polls are filling the void.

Hopefully we get another round of gold-standard polls before Labor Day.

Most of the big media outlets released polls in the first week of August. They may wait until right after labor day so release polls in the second week of September. One interesting side effect of that may be that Johnson may only have a couple of weeks or less to get to 15%.  I don't think ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and FOX will all do two polls in the next four weeks.  Johnsons fate may be set two Sundays from now
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,021


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2016, 05:02:46 PM »

The Khan fiasco hurt him a lot given he was actually tied or ahead in most polls prior.

His new campaign team seems to be keeping him on a shorter leash, and he's strangely pivoting to make his positions seem not as crazy, not that I believe Trump has any actual policy planks.

The advantage he has is Hillary is really unlikeable and there are plenty of people supporting her because they feel like there is no other option. I think Trump will continue to pull closer until he makes another gaffe, but who knows.

We may not see much movement in the polls until the first debate.
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,504
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2016, 05:25:35 PM »

The Khan fiasco hurt him a lot given he was actually tied or ahead in most polls prior.

His new campaign team seems to be keeping him on a shorter leash, and he's strangely pivoting to make his positions seem not as crazy, not that I believe Trump has any actual policy planks.

The advantage he has is Hillary is really unlikeable and there are plenty of people supporting her because they feel like there is no other option. I think Trump will continue to pull closer until he makes another gaffe, but who knows.

We may not see much movement in the polls until the first debate.

This.  For the most part.  I think the underlined paragraph is the "for now" bottom line.

Hillary's not popular.  And with good reason; she got rich in office.  People don't like that.  And she violated rules to conceal the relationship between becoming wealthy and being in high office.  People have concluded the connection between the two, and can't be talked out of it. 

People have concluded that Hillary gave access to rich Clinton Foundation donors while Secretary of State and benefitted greatly from this.  There is debate as to whether or not she committed a crime, and I'm not one of the "Hillary for Prison" crowd.  But there's no debate that she lied about pertinent facts surrounding her e-mails to the FBI, possibly to Congress, and, certainly, to the American Public.  And they don't like it.

The e-mails dwarf Benghazi.  There is much debate about how responsible Hillary is, or should be, for the deaths of the men there.  The House investigation was soiled with partisanship.  But even in this, the facts reveal that Hillary Clinton acted with one eye on 2016 at all times.  And this required buying into the Obama Narrative of "a movie" sparking a riot, and not a "terrorist attack".  Benghazi has become "one more lie" Hillary has told, and while "telling the truth" may not have prevented the deaths of our men there, being complicit in a lie about such an event is something many non-political folks (like my wife, a two-time Obama voter now supporting Trump) find reprehensible.  My wife's a good barometer; she used to like Hillary, but after researching what happened in Benghazi, concluded that "she just let those men die".  I think millions of non-partisan folks who aren't overly partisan have concluded this as well.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2016, 05:31:47 PM »

Because the quality of the polls at the moment.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,624
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2016, 05:39:29 PM »

The Khan fiasco hurt him a lot given he was actually tied or ahead in most polls prior.


Nope.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2016, 05:40:54 PM »

Either the polls are started to become less biased in favor of crooked Hillary or Trump is pulling so far ahead that even these lying polls can't completely deny it. That anyone thinks the Benghazi butcher would be winning by 10 or 15 points is so laughable.

If this isn't sad trolling or performance art, get help.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2016, 05:42:15 PM »

We haven't gotten many quality polls in the last two weeks, so shaky/junk online panels and tracking polls are filling the void.

Hopefully we get another round of gold-standard polls before Labor Day.

Most of the big media outlets released polls in the first week of August. They may wait until right after labor day so release polls in the second week of September. One interesting side effect of that may be that Johnson may only have a couple of weeks or less to get to 15%.  I don't think ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and FOX will all do two polls in the next four weeks.  Johnsons fate may be set two Sundays from now

Isn't that part of the reason Johnson unleashed a major ad buy (For a Libertarian Pres nominee) and sent out urgent fundraising emails to people on his list?
Logged
bedstuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,526


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2016, 06:10:48 PM »

We haven't had the big national polls drop recently.  Trump seems to do better in these silly little tracking polls than the solid national polls.  Wait until after Labor Day when ABC/WaPO, Marist, NYT/CBS, etc drop.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2016, 06:47:48 PM »

He's not really surging. We've seen time and again this cycle that Trump's support stays mostly flat down near 41-42% while Clinton's rises and falls.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2016, 10:11:18 PM »

Convention surges usually fade away at some point.

It's August, not many people are dialed into the race as there will be next month when the debates start.
Logged
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 769
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2016, 11:12:02 PM »

Let's wait a bit before we can determine if this is a real upsurge.  The RCP average the week after Labor Day weekend will tell us a great deal since that is when summer is finally over, and people really begin tuning into the election.
Logged
Rules for me, but not for thee
Dabeav
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,785
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2016, 12:11:44 AM »

Nigel Farage bump?  That speech he gave and the opinion piece on meeting Trump afterward probably helped raise some cockles in the "little people".  It's why Farage is so good at what he does and why the Brexit vote was successful. 
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2016, 12:29:25 AM »

Nigel Farage bump?  That speech he gave and the opinion piece on meeting Trump afterward probably helped raise some cockles in the "little people".  It's why Farage is so good at what he does and why the Brexit vote was successful. 

80-90% of Americans have no idea who Nigel Farage is. The remaining 10-20% are already firmly locked in to one side or the other.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2016, 12:44:46 AM »

He's not really surging. We've seen time and again this cycle that Trump's support stays mostly flat down near 41-42% while Clinton's rises and falls.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2016, 06:25:59 AM »

NV, CO, Pa, Iowa and NH 272 is locked in for Clinton. Working class whites that Sanders appealed to in Appalachian are the ones he's coming back with
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 13 queries.