Trump has a huge problem with Catholics

[Gass3268]

Polls are showing him down between 23-27 points

Obama only won Catholics by 2% in 2012.

[IceSpear]

Trump has huge problems with every group besides non college white men.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

God bless the Catholic voters. Insha'allah they help stop Trump

[RR1997]

Interestingly, Catholics were one of his strongest groups in the primaries. Republican Catholics absolutely love Donald Trump, but he's obviously doing terribly with Hispanic and non-Republican Catholics.

[pbrower2a]

Polls are showing him down between 23-27 points

Obama only won Catholics by 2% in 2012.

Louisiana polling will be interesting. I notice that heavily-Catholic New Hampshire looks to not even be close in 2016.

[Classic Conservative]

Polls are showing him down between 23-27 points

Obama only won Catholics by 2% in 2012.

Louisiana polling will be interesting. I notice that heavily-Catholic New Hampshire looks to not even be close in 2016.

New Hampshire doesn't really have that large of a Catholic population.

[Ebsy]

Here's a good map of Catholicism in the US: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150917-data-points-how-catholic-population-has-shifted-in-the-united-states/

[Gustaf]

There was a 538 analysis on how Trump is underperforming badly among Catholics and that might explain why he's doing so much worse in New Hampshire compared to Maine.

[Indy Texas]

Here's a good map of Catholicism in the US: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150917-data-points-how-catholic-population-has-shifted-in-the-united-states/

Why has Massachusetts become so much more Catholic over the past 20 years? I'm surprised it was only 17.4% Catholic in 1985.

[Wisconsin+17]

Protestants in general have been collapsing.

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Louisiana will be very interesting. My numbers say it holds, but my gut has it going Hillary. Catholics will be crucial.

[Wisconsin+17]

California:

23.2 -> 33.5

Texas:

19.6 -> 30.3

Nevada:

15.2 -> 20.4

Idaho:

6.7 -> 11.0

Utah:

3.9 -> 9.8

Arizona:

17.8 -> 23.8

Georgia:

3.0 -> 10.9

Massachusetts:

17.4 -> 44.3

[ProudModerate2]

Trump has huge problems with every group besides non college white men.

[Classic Conservative]

Here's a good map of Catholicism in the US: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150917-data-points-how-catholic-population-has-shifted-in-the-united-states/

Why has Massachusetts become so much more Catholic over the past 20 years? I'm surprised it was only 17.4% Catholic in 1985.

Hispanics

[Podgy the Bear]

Of course, the Catholics are so diverse (primarily white conservative, a smaller white liberal/moderate, Hispanic, and those of African and Southeast Asian origin).  But Trump has managed to alienate so many of those subgroups, and they are tilting away from the Republicans this year. 

[NOVA Green]

Polls are showing him down between 23-27 points

Obama only won Catholics by 2% in 2012.

This is a great topic and surprised it hasn't received more attention on this forum.

If Trump is losing Catholic voters by 20+% then I would not be surprised to see a double-digit Hillary win.

It appears that the Trump Catholic gap has only been growing significantly over the past 3-4 months, and with the increasing Clinton lead, that at this point, it is reasonable to assume that Trump is behind even with White Catholics, a group that Romney won by 9 points in 2012, and additionally Hillary actually has a larger lead among Catholics who attend service weekly than more occasional attendees.

This helps explain some of the polling numbers we are seeing from PA in particular, as well as several deep red states in the Corn Belt (KS and NE), as well as obvious loss of support in fast growing Latino communities in AZ, and Clinton's consistent narrow lead in OH (Which in theory should be a decent Trump pickup opportunity).

I wish I hadn't reached my limit on my free WP articles for the month, because this sounds like a good read.... If anyone can C&P a few key highlights it would be much appreciated.

There are a few other articles on this subject that I found on the internets...

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/catholic-voters-desert-trump/2016/08/28/id/745534/

http://www.pennlive.com/nation-world/2016/08/does_donald_trump_have_a_catho.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438007/donald-trump-catholic-problem

http://religionnews.com/2016/07/20/why-trump-has-a-catholic-voter-problem/

http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/can-a-catholic-in-good-conscience-vote-for-trump-76894/

http://time.com/4409456/trump-pence-catholicism/

[NOVA Green]

Here's a good map of Catholicism in the US: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150917-data-points-how-catholic-population-has-shifted-in-the-united-states/

Thanks for sharing!

[NOVA Green]

Protestants in general have been collapsing.

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Louisiana will be very interesting. My numbers say it holds, but my gut has it going Hillary. Catholics will be crucial.

What do your guts say about Northern Maine and French Canadians in ME-02?

Are there any legit comparisons with the Cajun vote in LA and that region of Maine?

[Dr. Arch]

So if Trump has a problem with African-Americans, Hispanics, Catholics, Mormons, College-Educateds, Jews, etc. etc. etc.

How does he win?

[Ebowed]

I wish I hadn't reached my limit on my free WP articles for the month, because this sounds like a good read....

Have you tried opening the link in a private window, or alternatively, clearing your cookies?

[Ronnie]

So if Trump has a problem with African-Americans, Hispanics, Catholics, Mormons, College-Educateds, Jews, etc. etc. etc.

How does he win?

He doesn't.

[IceSpear]

So if Trump has a problem with African-Americans, Hispanics, Catholics, Mormons, College-Educateds, Jews, etc. etc. etc.

How does he win?

A new fatal virus spreads across the country. Only the presence of coal dust in your lungs can stop it.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a good map of Catholicism in the US: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150917-data-points-how-catholic-population-has-shifted-in-the-united-states/

PROTESTANT GEORGIA IS EVOLVING INTO CATHOLIC GEORGIA

[Podgy the Bear]

I find it amazing from the National Geographic survey that the Hispanic migration into my home state of Georgia has increased the Catholic percentage from 3.0 to 10.9% over the past 30 years.  And California from 23 to 33%.  And Massachusetts jumped from 17 to 41% in the same period?!!

[Adam Griffin]

Change in Catholic Pop (Red = Decrease, Green = Increase, White = Change < 0.5 point):

[NOVA Green]

I wish I hadn't reached my limit on my free WP articles for the month, because this sounds like a good read....

Have you tried opening the link in a private window, or alternatively, clearing your cookies?

Thanks!!! It not only cleared the issue, but also dramatically increased my internet download speed.

What I find one of the most interesting statements is this quote in the article from the Religion News Service.  (In italics)

As the Religion News Services’s John Gehring recently posited, it could also have something to do with Trump’s immigration policies:

Part of Catholics’ DNA is an appreciation for how Irish and other immigrants toiled and thrived in the shadow of a suspicious, fiercely anti-Catholic culture dominated by white Anglo-Saxon Protestants. ...

When Trump calls for a religious test for Muslims entering the country; questions the faith of Hillary Clinton, President Obama and Mitt Romney; and demonizes undocumented immigrants as “rapists,” it’s a reminder of the ugly nativism that Catholics once faced.

While this contemporary strain of old xenophobia is particularly felt by Latinos who increasingly are the face of the Catholic Church in the United States, many white Catholics surely take pride in family stories of grandparents and great-grandparents who were strangers in a new land. Trump has dug himself a deep hole he is unlikely to climb out of with these voters.


Lots more to say, but this is a legitimate explanation for the complete collapse of support for Trump among Anglo Catholics, including many of my friends and extended family members that also share a 3rd generation history on various sides of the family.