What will the margin be amongst college-educated whites?

[AGA]

This is a traditionally Republican demographic that backed Romney by 14 points, but many polls show Clinton winning amongst college-educated whites by a substantial margin. A recent Bloomberg poll has Clinton winning with this group 48-37. How will this group vote, and what does this mean for the nominees election strategy?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I'm not saying that there is Shy Trump effect, but if there is, it will be the highest among this group.

[JMT]

I'm not saying that there is Shy Trump effect, but if there is, it will be the highest among this group.

I totally agree. That's why I think the Bloomberg poll could be a little generous towards Clinton. I still think Clinton wins this group, but by a single digit margin (so I voted Clinton 0-5 in the poll)

[Xing]

Clinton by 5-7%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton by 5-7%.

Yup, this is what I'm thinking too.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Approximately tied, edge to Clinton.

[Breton Racer]

Clinton- 50%
Trump- 38%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Clinton 50%
Trump 44%
Other 6%

[Camaro33]

College educated whites is the one demographic that will vote 3rd party the most. Most of these voters are Romney voters who won't vote Trump, however, there also are some voters that don't like Clinton that voted for Obama. I think in the end, Trump will still (very narrowly) win the demographic. The shy-Trump effect and the fact that white college educated voters are as fiscally conservative as their non-college peers but more socially liberal makes this seem likely. Of course many are voting Clinton, but I doubt the demographic swings as much as polls suggest.

[Indy Texas]

Clinton will win college-educated white women by leaps and bounds. College-educated white men will either be a statistical tie or slightly go to Trump.

Taken as a whole, I'd give college educated whites to Clinton by 5-10%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton 50%
Trump 44%
Other 6%

Something like that, maybe less third party.

[Young Conservative]

Trump 54
Clinton 42
Third Party 4

[Gass3268]

Trump 54
Clinton 42
Third Party 4

Lolno

[MasterJedi]

I think it'll be about 10-12% for Clinton. The "shy Trump" voter should really be called the "I don't want people to think I'm racist even though I am voter because it would hurt me" voter.

[Badger]

Are we including postgraduate degree holder tooo, or only those with 4 year degrees? If the former, it won't be terribly close.

[Cruzcrew]

Clinton by 5% with 5-10% going third party

[RFayette]

Trump 54
Clinton 42
Third Party 4

Lolno

Among Baptists, sure (actually, Trump would be doing far better than that with us, but still)

Anyway, my guess is Clinton by 5-7%.

[Ljube]

Trump will probably win this group. If he does, he wins the election. That's the deciding factor.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Be closer than you think.

Clinton 51
Trump 46
Other 3

[/]

You guys seriously think there's going to be a twenty-four point swing in one of the largest demographics?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You guys seriously think there's going to be a twenty-four point swing in one of the largest demographics?

[Nyvin]

Trump 54
Clinton 42
Third Party 4

Dreamy Dreams?   

In the real world, no.

[Nyvin]

You guys seriously think there's going to be a twenty-four point swing in one of the largest demographics?

If there wasn't then we would be seeing Colorado and Virginia (two of the most educated states in the country) being swing states and not states Clinton leads in by double digits.

[Nyvin]

Trump will probably win this group. If he does, he wins the election. That's the deciding factor.

Cause that's how it worked in 2012 huh?

[The Other Castro]

You guys seriously think there's going to be a twenty-four point swing in one of the largest demographics?

That article from Nate Cohn on how the exit polls were off suggests that Romney won college whites by about 8, not 14. The winning poll group here is Clinton +5-10, so we might be talking about a 13 point swing.