2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States

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Missouri
State PVI:


Missouri has 4 state PVI bellwether counties - St. Louis south suburban Jefferson, Kansas City north suburban Clay, Buchanan (St. Joseph), the historic starting point of the Pony Express, and rural Iron Counties.  Of the four, Clay and Buchanan trended the least from 2008 to 2012.

Part of Kansas City is in Clay County.  Unlike in Jackson County, that portion of KC's results are reported by the SoS with Clay County.  The Jackson County part of KC reports its results separately to the SoS, and the Jackson County suburbs report separately.  Suburban Jackson County is also a state PVI bellwether - though it is not shown separately on the map.

National PVI:


Missouri has only 1 national PVI bellwether county - Ste. Genevieve, south of St. Louis along the Mississippi River.  It's not a terribly good bellwether, though - it owes its bellwether status to being about 3.5 points more Democratic than the country in 2008 and about 3.5 points more Republican than the country in 2012.

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Montana
State PVI:


Montana's 2 state PVI bellwether counties are large geographically but fairly rural.  Park County (Livingston) includes the northern fringes of Yellowstone National Park.  L-shaped Rosebud County includes as very small portion of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation.  Perhaps because of that, Park is a more reliable state bellwether than Rosebud, trending much less over the past two cycles.

National PVI:


R+7 Montana has no national PVI bellwether counties.  As you can see, the state is somewhat polarized, with many deep (Atlas) blue counties in the flatter ranchlands of eastern Montana.

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Nebraska
State PVI:


Sarpy County, home of Omaha's sy outh suburbs, is by far the largest of Nebraska's 4 state PVI bellwether counties.  Accompanying Sarpy on the state PVI bellwether list are Dodge County (Fremont), Otoe County (Nebraska City) and very rural Burt County.  Of the four counties, Sarpy and Otoe were the leas trendy over the past two cycles - but none are terribly trendy compared to the state.

National PVI:


R+12 Nebraska has no national PVI bellwether counties.  Only Thurston County has a D+PVI.  The Winnebago Indian Reservation is coterminous with it.

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Nevada
State PVI:


As Washoe County goes, so goes Nevada.  It has been trending Republican compared to the rest of the state over the past two cycles, though.  Whether it will maintain its PVI bellwether status after the 2016 election remains to be seen, especially with Trump on the ballot.

National PVI:


D+2 Nevada has no national PVI bellwether counties. Washoe County at D+1.35 comes closest.

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New Hampshire
State PVI:


New Hampshire has no state PVI bellwether counties.  This is largely academic on election day, though, since New Hampshire results are generally reported by town.  Note how much more Democratic the counties along the Connecticut River valley are than the rest of the state.

National PVI:


New Hampshire has no national PVI bellwether counties.  In fact, New Hampshire's national PVI map looks a lot like the state PVI map because the state is only D+1.

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New Jersey
State PVI:


New Jersey has two state PVI bellwether counties, Atlantic, home of the gambling mecca of Atlantic City, and Burlington County, which includes some of Philadelphia's New Jersey suburbs like Cinnaminson and Willingboro.  Of the two, Atlantic trended slightly less than Burlington over the past 2 cycles.  Donald Trump might underperform in Atlantic County this cycle, though, due to his failed Atlantic City casino ventures.

National PVI:


Somerset County in Central Jersey was a national PVI bellwether over the past two cycles.  It trended slightly more Democratic than the rest of the country from 2008 to 2012, though.

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New Mexico
State PVI:


New Mexico has no state PVI bellwether counties.  Dona Ana and Sandoval come closest, with PVIs of about D+1.8 and R+1.9, respectively.

National PVI:


New Mexico's national D+4 shift causes four counties to move into national PVI territory: Colfax (Raton), Los Alamos, home of the national laboratory of the same name, Valencia, which includes part of an Indian Reservation and Albuquerque's southern exurbs, and Hidalgo (Lordsburg) in New Mexico's southwestern corner.  Of the four, Valencia and Los Alamos trended least compared to the national average. 

It is not clear whether Los Alamos County will continue to be a be national bellwether because of its very high percentage of college educated residents.

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New York
State PVI:


New York has one state PVI bellwether - NYC suburban Westchester County.  Unfortunately for potential prognosticators, it tends to report later than the rest of the state and is fairly diverse, making early returns unreliable.

Only two counties outside of New York City are relatively more Democratic than the state - Albany, home to the state capital, and Tompkins, home to Cornell University.

National PVI:


Despite its D+11 lean, New York has 7 national PVI bellwether counties.  These range from NYC suburban Suffolk, Rockland and Orange to Binghamton's Broome County to snowy Oswego County on Lake Ontario to Seneca County, the birthplace of the women's rights movement and Otsego County (Oneonta), home to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.  Of the 7, Seneca and Rockland were the most trendy compared to the rest of the country.  The others were pretty spot on in predicting the national margin in both election years.

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North Carolina
State PVI:


North Carolina has 7 counties that voted, on average, within 1 percent on either side of the 2008 and 2012 state presidential election result.  Most are mid-sized counties.  Nash County (Rocky Mount) cast the most total votes of the 7 in 2012, followed by Franklin (Louisburg), Lenoir (Kinston) and Watauga (Boone).  Watauga County is home to Appalachian State University.  Caswell, Chowan and tiny Hyde Counties round out the 7 state PVI bellwethers.

Of the 7 counties, Hyde, Chowan and Franklin trended the least from 2008 to 2012 relative to the state.

National PVI:


North Carolina's national R+3 tilt makes 5 slightly Democratic state PVI counties national PVI bellwethers.  These counties are Wilson (Wilson), Chatham and Granville (Oxford) in the Raleigh-Durham area, and Martin and Gates in the Tidewater region.  Chatham and Granville trended the least of the 5 PVI bellwether counties.

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North Dakota
State PVI:


North Dakota has two state PVI bellwether counties, both rural counties  in the northeast corner of the state - Pembina and Cavalier.  From the map, you can see that with the exception of Sioux County (which is on the Standing Rock Indian Reservation) and Mountrail County (which is partially on the Fort Berthold Indian Agency), most of the D+ state PVI counties are in the eastern part of the state.

National PVI:


No North Dakota counties are national PVI bellwethers in this R+10 state.

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Ohio
State PVI:


Ohio has 4 state PVI bellwether counties - Montgomery County (Dayton), Stark County (Canton), and Sandusky (Fremont) and Ottawa (Port Clinton) counties near Toledo.  Montgomery County had the least trend of the 4 counties relative to the rest of the state.

National PVI:


The national PVI map doesn't shift much from the state PVI map in R+1 Ohio.  Montgomery, Sandusky and Ottawa Counties are also national PVI bellwethers.  They are joined by Hamilton County (Cincinnati), Cleveland-exurban Portage County, home to Kent and its state university, and Toledo-area Wood County, home to Bowling Green and its state university. 

Of the 6 Ohio national PVI bellwethers, Hamilton had the biggest trend, trending Democratic compared to the rest of the country from 2008 to 2012.  The other 5 had smaller trends in various directions.  Portage trended the absolute least of the 6 counties.

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Oklahoma
State PVI:


Oklahoma has 3 state PVI bellwether counties, all fairly rural - Craig (Vinita), Hughes and Seminole (Seminole) Counties.  Craig County trended the least versus the state of the three.

National PVI:


R+19 Oklahoma has no national PVI bellwether counties.  In fact, it has no county with a national PVI less than R+9.  It is as Atlas blue as Atlas blue states come.

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Oregon
State PVI:


Oregon has no state PVI bellwether counties.  It is a pretty polarized state.

National PVI:


Portland-suburban Clackamas County is a national PVI bellwether.  It is not a particularly good one, owing its D+0.77 status to a slight Republican trend compared to the rest of the country from 2008 to 2012.  Plus, Oregon's vote-by-mail system sometimes leads to misleading early results that don't predict the final margin.

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Pennsylvania
State PVI:


There are 4 Pennsylviana state PVI bellwether counties - Northampton (Bethlehem/Easton) in the Allentown area, Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre region, Dauphin (Harrisburg) in the capital region, and Centre (State College), home to the main campus of Penn State University.  Of the four, Luzerne and Dauphin trended least compared to the rest of the state.  It will be interesting to see if Luzerne County will continue its bellwether status with Donald Trump on the ballot.

National PVI:


Because Pennsylvania is only a D+1 state, the national PVI map looks a lot like the state PVI map.  Luzerne, Centre and Dauphin Counties are also national PVI bellwethers.  They are joined by Philadelphia-suburban Bucks, Berks and Chester Counties.   Bucks, Berks and Chester all trended moderately Republican from 2008 to 2012, and may not be the best bellwethers, especially in this election.  Luzerne and Dauphin Counties trended the least of the 6, just as they did among the state PVI bellwethers.

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Rhode Island
State PVI:


Rhode Island only has 5 counties.  Not surprisingly, none are state PVI bellwethers - but Bristol County comes close at R+1.39.  In fact, the state is pretty homogeneous - state PVIs only range from Providence's D+3.49 to Kent's R+5.12.

National PVI:


Rhode Island is a D+11 state.  All counties have a D+ national PVI.  None are national PVI bellwethers.

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South Carolina
State PVI:


Union County (Union) is South Carolina's sole state PVI bellwether county.  It's not a particularly good one - it trended Democratic compared to the rest of the state from 2008 to 2012.

National PVI:


R+8 South Carolina has 3 national PVI bellwether counties: Charleston, home to the city of Charleston and many of its suburbs, rural Calhoun County, south of Columbia, and even more rural McCormick County on the Georgia border.  Of the three, McCormick trended least relative to the country over the past two cycles.

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South Dakota
State PVI:


Four South Dakota counties are relatively decent bellwethers for the state.  Codington (Watertown) is the largest.  Part of the Sisseton Indian Reservation is inside the county, but it doesn't appear to be heavily populated.  Beadle (Huron) is next largest - and home to the South Dakota State Fair.  More rural Charles Mix and Aurora Counties are also on the list.  The Yankton Indian Reservation comprises the southern half of Charles Mix County.   Of the four, Aurora and Beadle trended least compared to the rest of the state, but not by much.

National PVI:


R+9 South Dakota has no national PVI bellwether counties.  With the exception of Clay County (Vermillion), home to the University of South Dakota, most of the D+ Atlas red counties are on Indian Reservations.

Note that Shannon County has recently been renamed Oglala Lakota County.

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Tennessee
State PVI:


Two rural Tennessee counties are PVI bellwethers - Grundy (Tracy City) and Overton (Livingston).  Grundy County trended much less than Overton compared to the state over the past two cycles.

National PVI:


Only one Tennessee county makes the national PVI bellwether cut - Hardeman County (Bolivar) in the western part of the state.  It had a moderate Democratic trend compared to the country. 

Note otherwise how Atlas blue most of the counties are in this R+12 state. Only 4 counties have D+ national PVIs, including two of the largest, Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson (Nashville).

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Texas
State PVI:


Texas has 5 state PVI bellwether counties.  Tarrant (Fort Worth and suburbs) is by far the largest of the five - and the least trending.  The second-largest bellwether county, Bell (Temple-Killeen), is home to the Fort Hood army base.  The other three are much smaller - Bastrop County (Bastrop) near Austin, Waller County, near Houston, home to Prairie View A&M, a historically black college, and Atascosa County, near San Antonio.  Exurban sprawl may eventually reach those three counties over the next few decades.

National PVI:


Three Texas counties are national PVI bellwethers - Bexar County (San Antonio) is by far the largest, followed by Val Verde County (Del Rio), a Mexican border county that is home to Laughlin Air Force Base, and Kleberg County (Kingsville).  Of the three, Val Verde trended least, but it has a relatively high PVI of D+0.95.

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Utah
State PVI:


Weber County (Ogden) is Utah's sole state PVI bellwether county.  It has a relatively high state PVI of +0.91, though, and a moderate trend.

National PVI:


The ski county of Summit (Park City) is Utah's national PVI bellwether county.  It's a terrible bellwether, though, with a huge Republican trend compared to the country from 2008 to 2012 - which is not so surprising with Romney on the 2012 ballot in his R+22 home state.  Every Utah county has an R+ PVI.

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Vermont
State PVI:


Vermont has no state PVI bellwether counties.  This may be academic, anyway, since results are generally reported by town.

National PVI:


Not surprisingly, D+16 Vermont has no national PVI bellwether counties, either.  All counties have D+ Atlas red PVIs.

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Virginia
State PVI:


Two Virginia counties and three independent cities are state PVI bellwethers.  Suburban Washington D.C. Loudoun County is by far the largest of the 5, and had the least trend.  Rural Nelson County, in between Charlottesville and Lynchburg in central Virginia, is the other county on the list.  The three independent cities are west-central Staunton, southwestern Radford and northern Virginia's Winchester.   Winchester city also only had a slight trend; the trend in the other three municipalities was moderate.

National PVI:


Because Virginia's PVI is even, Loudoun County, Nelson County and Radford city are also national PVI bellwethers.  Again, Loudoun County trended the least of the three.

Note that my state maps and dataset include both Bedford County and Bedford city.  Bedford city was dissolved at some point after the 2012 election.  The combined city and county have a state and national PVI of R+22.  (Bedford City was R+8; Bedford County was R+23).

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Washington
State PVI:


Despite being a fairly polarized state, three Washington counties qualify as state PVI bellwethers - Snohomosh (Everett/Lynwood/Edmonds), which contains Seattle's northern suburbs, Whatcom (Bellingham), on the Canadian border, and Grays Harbor (Aberdeen) on the Pacific coast.  All three had minor trends, with Snohomish trending least but having the highest state PVI.  Whatcom's state PVI was almost dead even.

National PVI:


Island County (Oak Harbor), home to the Whidbey Island Naval Air Station, is a good national PVI bellwether.  It has a R+0.1 PVI and only had a relatively minor trend compared to the rest of the nation from 2008 to 2012.

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West Virginia
State PVI:


West Virginia has 10 state PVI bellwether counties to choose from.  These range from Hancock (Weirton) in the north to Greenbrier (White Sulfur Springs) in the south, and counties in between, including  Harrison (Clarksburg), Mason (Point Pleasant) and Randolph (Elkins).  They also include the more rural counties of Nicholas, Lincoln, Summers, Pocahontas and Calhoun.  Of the 10, Greenbrier, Randolph, Mason and Pocahontas trended least.

National PVI:


R+13 West Virginia has no national PVI bellwether counties - or national D+ Atlas red counties.

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Wisconsin
State PVI:


Wisconsin's 4 state PVI counties range from Door County (Sturgeon Bay) - vacationland on Lake Michigan - to Dunn (Menomonie) and Buffalo Counties in the west to Forest County in northern Wisconsin.  All four had moderate trends relative to the state over the past two cycles.

National PVI:


D+2 Wisconsin has 10 national PVI bellwether counties - though most showed large Republican trends from 2008 to 2012 and aren't good national margin predictors.  The ill-fitting counties are Brown (Green Bay), Chippewa (Chippewa Falls), Iron, Lincoln (Merrill), Oneida (Rhinelander), Pierce, Price and Wood (Wisconsin Rapids/Marshfield).  The best fit is Racine, home to some of Milwaukee's southern suburbs.  It has a PVI of R+0.06, and had a very small swing relative to the country over the past two cycles.