Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week
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Author Topic: Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week  (Read 1935 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2016, 06:11:13 PM »

Based on number of states, this is roughly one mil per state... So not that much
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dspNY
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« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2016, 06:24:03 PM »

A $10 mil ad buy for a week is peanuts at this point in the cycle.  There are only a couple of months left, big league campaigns would be spending $100 mil a month.

Yeah, you need $3M per week at this point just to buy ads in FL
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #27 on: August 30, 2016, 08:14:50 AM »
« Edited: August 30, 2016, 08:17:18 AM by Castro »

Still only in 4 states, though Trump camp says the rest is coming today.



http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-democrats-are-track-take-back-senate-n639906
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: August 30, 2016, 08:20:04 AM »

The lack of spending in the Cleveland and Youngstown media markets for Trump is interesting. The Cleveland market is huge and includes a lot of swing areas in Ohio.
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Badger
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« Reply #29 on: August 30, 2016, 09:26:08 PM »

The lack of spending in the Cleveland and Youngstown media markets for Trump is interesting. The Cleveland market is huge and includes a lot of swing areas in Ohio.

Ditto for Erie and Scranton\Wilkes-Barre.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #30 on: August 30, 2016, 09:28:21 PM »

The lack of spending in the Cleveland and Youngstown media markets for Trump is interesting. The Cleveland market is huge and includes a lot of swing areas in Ohio.

So, essentially, he's shredding cash in areas that he shouldn't even be primordially investing in, while not even significantly trying for those areas in which he should.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2016, 02:51:42 PM »

Well, it's Wednesday and half of Trump's ad buy still hasn't been placed...

So far we have:
Florida: $1.8 million
North Carolina: $1 million
Ohio: $1.2 million
Pennsylvania: $1.2 million
Michigan: $600,000

And no Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/half-trump-s-10-million-ad-buy-hasn-t-been-n640806?cid=sm_twitter_feed_firstread
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2016, 02:57:02 PM »

I wonder if they will add Wisconsin.  I wonder if their internal polling matches the two recent WI polls.  The PBS report from yesterday said they had a lot of offices in WI, so it would make sense for it to be on their list for TV too.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2016, 04:19:19 PM »

I wonder if they will add Wisconsin.  I wonder if their internal polling matches the two recent WI polls.  The PBS report from yesterday said they had a lot of offices in WI, so it would make sense for it to be on their list for TV too.

Wisconsin still isn't a particularly good fit for Trump, even with that polling. And I'm not sure those Trump offices aren't just state GOP offices that are literally always open. Wisconsin has been in a permanent campaign since 2010.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2016, 04:41:55 PM »

I wonder if they will add Wisconsin.  I wonder if their internal polling matches the two recent WI polls.  The PBS report from yesterday said they had a lot of offices in WI, so it would make sense for it to be on their list for TV too.
But just stop this thing about magic internals.

Look at 538's model. Last two polls were expected by their model: Monmouth didn't change it at all (just slightly), while Marquette was little bit better than expected. What did the magic? They DID LISTEN to those "junky" nationall polls. That's it.

I'm not kidding, just look at it http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/#now

The expected margin (for yesterday) was D+3.8

What did we get today? D+5 and D+3 Smiley
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #35 on: September 02, 2016, 11:06:19 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2016, 11:29:12 AM by Castro »

Trump finally starts his ad buy in Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia, though no word on New Hampshire or Nevada yet.

Edit: New Hampshire and Nevada are now up as well. The ad buy is at last complete.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #36 on: September 02, 2016, 09:35:48 PM »

Updated spending numbers:

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Ebsy
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« Reply #37 on: September 02, 2016, 09:37:13 PM »

Nevada and Iowa ad buys should probably be bigger.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #38 on: September 02, 2016, 09:38:38 PM »

Any breakdown by media market?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2016, 10:06:53 PM »

Relieved that New Hampshire is only 3%. He should pull out of New Hampshire and Colorado, and shift that to Wisconsin.
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Xing
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« Reply #40 on: September 02, 2016, 10:08:44 PM »

Glad to see he's wasting a ton of money on VA, and some on CO, NV, and NH.
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cinyc
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« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2016, 01:05:43 AM »

Nevada and Iowa ad buys should probably be bigger.

The Nevada ad buy is probably fine.  The overwhelming majority of the state where people actually live is in just 2 TV markets.  You only can spend so much in a week in 2 TV markets before getting diminishing returns.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2016, 06:14:03 AM »

Glad to see he's wasting a ton of money on VA, and some on CO, NV, and NH.
Great news!
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elcorazon
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« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2016, 05:21:14 PM »

Isn't that a lot to spend on VA? Seems like his worst state of the bunch
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2016, 06:15:27 PM »

Isn't that a lot to spend on VA? Seems like his worst state of the bunch

Not only that, but $1.3 million of the VA money is in the DC market according to NBC.
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cinyc
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« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2016, 06:36:30 PM »

Isn't that a lot to spend on VA? Seems like his worst state of the bunch

Not only that, but $1.3 million of the VA money is in the DC market according to NBC.

DC is a very expensive market, and you need to buy it to reach NoVa.  Then, you need to buy at least Richmond and Norfolk, which are cheaper but not dirt-cheap, probably Roanoke and Tri-Cities, and, if you want to advertise in all the in-state markets, Charlottesville and Harrisonburg.  It's not like Nevada, where you really only have to buy 2 TV markets to reach most of the state.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2016, 06:39:39 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2016, 06:47:04 PM by Likely Voter »

For comparison here is how Romney (plus groups supporting Romney) spent their money in 2012...
Florida   19%
Virginia   17%
Ohio   16%
North Carolina   12%
Colorado   8%
Iowa   6%
Nevada   6%
Wisconsin   5%
Michigan   5%
Pennsylvania   4%
New Hampshire   3%


The significant differences is a lot more to PA and nothing to WI. Emphasis on OH, CO, VA, IA and NV is a little less (presumably to make up for the big emphasis on PA).

Combined they spent around $47M in September 2012 (about half from the campaign and half outside groups)
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2016, 06:41:08 PM »

Isn't that a lot to spend on VA? Seems like his worst state of the bunch

Not only that, but $1.3 million of the VA money is in the DC market according to NBC.

DC is a very expensive market, and you need to buy it to reach NoVa.  Then, you need to buy at least Richmond and Norfolk, which are cheaper but not dirt-cheap, probably Roanoke and Tri-Cities, and, if you want to advertise in all the in-state markets, Charlottesville and Harrisonburg.  It's not like Nevada, where you really only have to buy 2 TV markets to reach most of the state.

All true... but it does seem curious that he his sinking these amount of $$$ into VA, considering that it looks like a state that is almost out of reach, compared to other electoral combinations to get to 270.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2016, 07:28:26 PM »

Saw my first Trump ad today in MD (DC media market).
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2016, 07:29:10 PM »

Saw my first Trump ad today in MD (DC media market).

Does that stretch down to NoVA?
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