Trump to Launch $10 Million Ad Buy For This Week

[cinyc]

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So far the buy hasn't happened yet in other 5 states.

I wouldn't read so much into this.  There is always a lag between an ad buy and when the TV stations put the buys in their political database.  When all the data came in, Trump's ad buys were almost always as advertised during the primaries.

[cinyc]

He's free to waste money in Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is cheap and a rather important 2nd path. It's a wise decision.

To adequately cover New Hampshire is hardly cheap - you have to buy in the pricey Boston TV market, and maybe Portland, ME and Burlington, VT to reach the northern parts of the state.  Just making an ad buy on WMUR (Manchester, NH's ABC Affiliate which is technically in the Boston TV market) likely isn't sufficient.  When the ad buys are fully in, I'll check what Trump actually bought in to reach the state.

If you're already buying Portland to reach Northern New Hampshire, adding on the cheap Bangor and Presque Isle, ME markets to reach all of Maine (and ME-02) isn't that much of a stretch.

[cinyc]

Is that all still true in the days of cable/direct tv, etc.? I know you can actually tailor ads to  specific suburbs in Chicago area by buying specific cable systems. I would think that would be doable in more rural areas as well.

Buying cable won't get you the main audience that political ad makers tend to target - the local newscasts.  It also is less efficient in more rural areas because of higher satellite penetration - DirecTV generally doesn't sell hyper-local ads. 

The main political ad buys are still made on over-the-air TV stations.  And, at least until recently (I'm not sure of the status of the significantly viewed satellite regulations), the satellite providers generally only provide the in-market local stations, meaning if you live in rural Northern New Hampshire in the Portland market and have satellite instead of cable, you might not get WMUR at all.

[cinyc]

How expensive are TV ads in Utah, and what percentage of the population do they reach?

I would imagine radio ads might be more effective in many remote and rural parts of the state, as well as extremely inexpensive.... same might go for Alaska if one wanted to dip the toes in the water.

All of Utah is in the Salt Lake City TV market, making it one of the more efficient states to advertise in.  The Salt Lake TV market bleeds a little into neighboring states, but not much, making it cost-effective since you're not paying to reach many out-of-staters unlike, say Philadelphia or Boston for New Hampshire.   

Alaska is in 3 TV markets - though Fairbanks and especially Juneau are very small.

[cinyc]

Nevada and Iowa ad buys should probably be bigger.

The Nevada ad buy is probably fine.  The overwhelming majority of the state where people actually live is in just 2 TV markets.  You only can spend so much in a week in 2 TV markets before getting diminishing returns.

[cinyc]

Isn't that a lot to spend on VA? Seems like his worst state of the bunch

Not only that, but $1.3 million of the VA money is in the DC market according to NBC.

DC is a very expensive market, and you need to buy it to reach NoVa.  Then, you need to buy at least Richmond and Norfolk, which are cheaper but not dirt-cheap, probably Roanoke and Tri-Cities, and, if you want to advertise in all the in-state markets, Charlottesville and Harrisonburg.  It's not like Nevada, where you really only have to buy 2 TV markets to reach most of the state.