Who will come in third place in each state?

[AGA]

Who will come in third place in each state? I am thinking that it will be Johnson in almost every state, assuming that he gets on the ballot in all 50 states, but Stein will probably come third in Vermont and possibly Oregon. It is important to note that Stein did beat Johnson in DC in 2012.

Also, will any of the major nominees come in third place anywhere? I do not think so, but if it does turn out to be the case, it could be Clinton in Utah and Trump in Vermont or DC.

Feel free to post maps.

[cMac36]

Sanders might come third in Vermont

McMullin third in Utah?

[Gustaf]

Trump coming in 3rd in DC doesn't seem totally impossible given how unpopular he seems to be there.

[Mr. Morden]

It is important to note that Stein did beat Johnson in DC in 2012.

True, but #NeverTrumpers are overrepresented among the few Republicans living in DC, so I'd assume that they'll boost Johnson's numbers there enough to beat Stein this time.

[Mr. Morden]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

[Gustaf]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

[Gass3268]

It's possible that Johnson beats Trump in DC.

[GeorgiaModerate]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

I don't think Perot won any counties in 1996.  He did win a few in 1992, along with finishing second in a couple of states (Maine and Utah) that year.

[evergreenarbor]

Johnson will be in third in every state except for DC and maybe RI and VT.

[Gustaf]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

I don't think Perot won any counties in 1996.  He did win a few in 1992, along with finishing second in a couple of states (Maine and Utah) that year.

Yeah I know he did in 1992. But then he pulled nearly 20% of the vote. Johnson looks more likely to be in high single digits like Perot of 1996.

[Mr. Morden]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

No, I don't think he won any counties, but I'm wondering more about coming in second.  Did Perot come in second in any counties in '96, and might Johnson (or another 3rd party candidate) be able to pull that off this time as well?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

It's possible that Johnson beats Trump in DC.

That's what I'm thinking at this point.

I figure that Johnson will be third pretty much everywhere other than DC, Vermont, and Utah. He'll be in forth to Bernie in VT and in 4th to McMullin in Utah.