CA-49 (D) Internal Poll: Issa not looking too safe

[heatcharger]

https://www.scribd.com/document/322485067/CA-49-Strategies-360-for-Doug-Applegate-Aug-2016

Issa (R) - 45%
Applegate (D) - 42%
Undecided - 13%

This is a district that was Romney +6, but according to this poll, Clinton leads by 5.

Issa will be very hard to defeat though.

[Slow Learner]

God it would be wonderful if the carjacker was booted out.

[Nyvin]

Nice! 

[The Other Castro]

Encouraging, though the Dem will need to spend a lottttt of $$$ to have a good shot at winning.

[Gass3268]

Issa won't lose, but this is awful news to some of the other competitive SoCal Republicans.

[Vosem]

Issa won't lose, but this is awful news to some of the other competitive SoCal Republicans.

Eh, the only suburban SoCal Republican in a seat more endangered than this is Steve Knight (who is also pretty gaffe-prone and who I strongly suspect is on track to lose). Issa has millions to spend if Applegate succeeds in getting donors or traction; I really doubt he goes down. Royce's seat is more vulnerable than Issa's theoretically, but Royce is very popular and did strongly in the primary. The other theoretically vulnerable California Republicans, Denham and Valadao, sit in parochial Central Valley seats that are unlikely to vote them out (and also performed very strongly in the primary).

I don't think any California seats flip beyond CA-25 (and considering turnout patterns in that area -- Rs won over 70% in the 2014 primary -- I strongly suspect it would be a two-year rental for Democrats anyway, though in the long run that's an area where they're gaining ground fast).

[windjammer]

Not going to lose, but honestly, I would love this terrible human being to lose so much.

[Torie]

Oceanside is gentrifying with beach gentry liberals (relatively speaking), replacing the military types. Asians are moving into the OC area of the CD. So the CD is sliding away given the current divide at the moment. Issa has more money than God, so he will hang on.

[Trapsy]

 #dumpissa

[Landslide Lyndon]

Issa losing will instantly improve congress by orders of magnitude.