What are the odds that Maine and Nebraska both split electoral votes this year?

[JRP1994]

Vote!

[ProudModerate2]

Clinton wins NE-02 = probability Likely
Trump wins ME-02 = probability Very Low.

So since your poll says "and" (meaning both events happening) I voted 0-24.9%.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Clinton will probably win NE-2, so I will say 60% one of the delegations splits.

[Xing]

I can't imagine both happening. I doubt Trump can actually win ME-02, but if he does, it probably means that Hillary's numbers have sunk dramatically, and she isn't winning NE-02.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton will probably win NE-2 but I don't see ME-2 going for Trump.

[Arbitrage1980]

Obama won NE 02 by about 1.2% in 2008, when he won the national popular vote by 7.2%.  Given that Hillary's ground game won't be as strong as Obama's, I don't think she wins it unless she wins nationwide by 8+ points. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama won NE 02 by about 1.2% in 2008, when he won the national popular vote by 7.2%.  Given that Hillary's ground game won't be as strong as Obama's, I don't think she wins it unless she wins nationwide by 8+ points. 

I don't think it's as simple as that. I think the issue with educated suburban whites is the issue.

[Seriously?]

0 because you'd think there'd be some uniformity to the swing, where if ME-02 happens, NE-02 doesn't and vice versa.

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

Clinton wins NE-02 = probability Likely
Trump wins ME-02 = probability Very Low.

So since your poll says "and" (meaning both events happening) I voted 0-24.9%.

I don't think it's "likely" that Hillary carries NE-02, but it's more likely than Trump carrying ME-02.

[Desroko]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

[Heisenberg]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

[Desroko]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

I have no idea, and don't care. NE-02 was a full eleven points to the right of the nation in 2012, no matter what some hack thinks.

[Dr. Arch]

No polls so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ But I do suspect Clinton might be favored in NE-02 because Trump is a horrible fit for the plains cities.

[Bojack Horseman]

Zero. I think Hillary will carry NE-2 (After which the Republicans in Nebraska will nuke the district plan) and I think there's about as much chance of the Lions winning the Super Bowl this season of Maine having a vote go for Trump.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Thinking about NE-01?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

I think. Wikipedia says it is R+4.

[Badger]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

I think. Wikipedia says it is R+4.

It does. As does Cook. Ergo about 1% chance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

I have no idea, and don't care. NE-02 was a full eleven points to the right of the nation in 2012, no matter what some hack thinks.

Again... think about who lives in NE-2 and consider how they voted along with the nation last time. I think you're flinging 'hack' around a little too easily.

[ElectionsGuy]

I would say less than 1%, don't see how Clinton can win 53-46 Romney NE-02 while losing 52-44 Obama ME-02. Both would require 8 point swings in the opposite directions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would say less than 1%, don't see how Clinton can win 53-46 Romney NE-02 while losing 52-44 Obama ME-02. Both would require 8 point swings in the opposite directions.

God help me for saying this, but I agree with Seriously? and his reasoning.

I don't see how both possibly happen.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Both will definitely trend towards the opposite side this year, but at the same time, I can't see both flipping in opposite directions. I'd go 50-50 on one or the other flipping, but both isn't going to happen.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton wins NE-02 and Trump wins ME-02?  0%

Clinton wins NE-02 or Trump wins ME-02?  30%

[elcorazon]

Clinton wins NE-02 and Trump wins ME-02?  0%

Clinton wins NE-02 or Trump wins ME-02?  60%

fixed

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

The way he's doing it is effectively doubling Cook PVIs.  R+4 to Cook means 54-46 in a 50-50 election, or an eight point win.

[Heisenberg]

I think 99% of the people who go on about NE-02 have no idea that it was redistricted in 2011. It was R+6 in 2008 and R+11 in 2012.

Wait. That sounds more like NE-01. Isn't NE-02 only R+4 on Cook?

The way he's doing it is effectively doubling Cook PVIs.  R+4 to Cook means 54-46 in a 50-50 election, or an eight point win.

I see. Thanks for the explanation.