Prediction: Last 5 states to be called on election night
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Author Topic: Prediction: Last 5 states to be called on election night  (Read 930 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: August 31, 2016, 12:38:43 PM »
« edited: August 31, 2016, 12:51:16 PM by Arbitrage1980 »
We can include NE and ME congressional districts as well.

Ohio
Georgia
Arizona
NE 02
Iowa
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2016, 12:41:37 PM »
I'd switch arizona and nevada.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM »
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02
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elcorazon
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2016, 12:49:56 PM »
Alaska
Arizona
Nevada
Iowa
Missouri
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2016, 12:53:25 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02


Despite the time difference, Alaska usually gets called for the GOP fairly quickly.  Is there any reason to think it will be close this year? 
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elcorazon
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2016, 12:54:58 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 31, 2016, 12:53:25 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02


Despite the time difference, Alaska usually gets called for the GOP fairly quickly.  Is there any reason to think it will be close this year? 
Trump
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2016, 12:58:27 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 31, 2016, 12:53:25 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02


Despite the time difference, Alaska usually gets called for the GOP fairly quickly.  Is there any reason to think it will be close this year? 

I'm not necessarily saying it will be close, just that there might not even be five other states left to call by the time it closes. It was called for Romney right away, but it was still one of the last states to be called in 2012.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2016, 01:13:05 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:58:27 PM
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 31, 2016, 12:53:25 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02


Despite the time difference, Alaska usually gets called for the GOP fairly quickly.  Is there any reason to think it will be close this year? 

I'm not necessarily saying it will be close, just that there might not even be five other states left to call by the time it closes. It was called for Romney right away, but it was still one of the last states to be called in 2012.
Wasn't Romney the candidate in 2012?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2016, 01:17:20 PM »
Quote from: elcorazon on August 31, 2016, 01:13:05 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:58:27 PM
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 31, 2016, 12:53:25 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02


Despite the time difference, Alaska usually gets called for the GOP fairly quickly.  Is there any reason to think it will be close this year? 

I'm not necessarily saying it will be close, just that there might not even be five other states left to call by the time it closes. It was called for Romney right away, but it was still one of the last states to be called in 2012.
Wasn't Romney the candidate in 2012?

Yes, that's why I said that even though it was called for him right away, it was one of the last states to be called in that election.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2016, 01:19:03 PM »
Quote from: elcorazon on August 31, 2016, 12:54:58 PM
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on August 31, 2016, 12:53:25 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 31, 2016, 12:43:09 PM
I doubt Ohio will be the last to be called, unless it's within 1%. The votes get counted more quickly than in other states. Factoring in the time of poll closing/speed of results...

Alaska (since it's the last to close, and counts its results slowly)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
NE-02


Despite the time difference, Alaska usually gets called for the GOP fairly quickly.  Is there any reason to think it will be close this year? 
Trump

And Johnson. He'll probably get at least 10% there, which could add a good amount of uncertainty.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2016, 02:19:44 PM »
Not including ME-2 or NE-2 (which would be in the final 5), I'll say:

Missouri
Nevada
Arizona
Georgia
Alaska
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2016, 02:32:42 PM »
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Nevada
ME-02
Florida
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Breton Racer
Harrytruman48
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2016, 04:44:51 PM »
Alaska
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Nevada
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LLR
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2016, 06:44:55 PM »
Wyoming
Washington, DC
Hawaii
Vermont
Maryland
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DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2016, 06:46:58 PM »
California
Oregon
Washington
Alaska
Hawaii
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2016, 07:02:53 PM »
I'm not including Alaska and Hawaii because of weird closing times in noncompetitive states:

5. Arizona (because it's on the west coast- otherwise PA)
4. Florida
3. Iowa
2. Ohio
1. Nevada
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indysaff
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2016, 07:12:51 PM »
Nevada
Arizona
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2016, 10:35:00 PM »
Vermont, New York, Washington state, Rhode Island, and California.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2016, 10:41:57 PM »
Quote from: Plankton5165 on August 31, 2016, 10:35:00 PM
Vermont, New York, Washington state, Rhode Island, and California.

Lol.  This is hilarious.  Vermont, Rhode Island, and New York are usually like the first states called for the democratic nominee.  California will be called for Hillary as soon as the polls close in the west coast.
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