Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Montana
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 06:58:06 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Montana		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Rate Montana and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 123

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Montana  (Read 2460 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 30, 2016, 01:29:26 AM »
Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri

Ratings



Safe Clinton: 126
Likely Clinton: 17
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 46
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 47

Clinton: 152
Trump: 87
Toss-Up: 46

Predictions



Clinton: 187
Trump: 98

Montana: Likely R, 51-42 Trump. Like Alaska, small and independent enough to possibly be in danger for Trump, but it's his to lose.

Right now Arizona and Florida are really close to a ratings change, in case anyone wants to influence that. It looked like Arizona may go back to Lean R, but it still on Toss-Up by one vote.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2016, 01:32:34 AM »
Safe R, Trump.

Trump 55%
Clinton 40%
Other 5%
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2016, 01:42:56 AM »
If Hillary does win in a landslide or near landslide, this state could be a sleeper race. Hillary's not a great fit, but neither is Trump, and Johnson will probably get a decent amount of votes here.

Likely R, Trump wins 50-42.
Logged
evergreenarbor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 864


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2016, 01:48:06 AM »
Likely R.

Trump: 46%
Clinton: 39%
Johnson: 13%
Others: 2%
Logged
tinman64
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 443


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.57

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2016, 02:34:09 AM »
Likely R.

Trump 50
Clinton 41
Others 9
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,520
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2016, 09:10:48 AM »
I really wish people would go back and edit their past votes for Colorado, really should be a Likely D state right now.

Montana is Likely R.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,633
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2016, 09:15:02 AM »
Likely R.

✓ Trump: 51.0%
Clinton: 44.4%
Others: 4.6%
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2016, 09:28:16 AM »
This could be one of Johnson's best states, and if he gains traction, it could be Likely R. For now, it is Safe R. 2008 was a one-time event, and I still expect Trump to win here by a decent margin.

Safe R

Trump: 51%
Clinton: 40%
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,817
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2016, 01:00:13 PM »
Likely Republican.

Trump: 50%
Hillary: 43%
Johnson: 6%
Others: 1%
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2016, 03:00:02 PM »
Likely R. Some more polls would be nice.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2016, 03:16:27 PM »
Clinton's not a good fit here, but Johnson's presence ads some uncertainty.  Likely R.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2016, 04:51:55 AM »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on August 30, 2016, 09:10:48 AM
I really wish people would go back and edit their past votes for Colorado, really should be a Likely D state right now.

Montana is Likely R.

Its been moving, it has a while to go but we got a lot of time yet.
Logged
Breton Racer
Harrytruman48
Rookie
**
Posts: 216
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2016, 04:52:45 PM »
Trump: 50%
Clinton: 44%

Likely Trump, it's his to lose, she could win it if she wins by ~7% or more.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2016, 06:45:24 PM »
Likely R, Trump 52-43
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2016, 06:56:55 PM »
Likely R. 49-38-11-2 T-C-J-S.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2016, 08:24:55 PM »
Safe R.

Trump 51
Clinton 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2016, 08:45:49 PM »
Likely R Trump 52-41-7
Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,437


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2016, 08:51:19 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2016, 08:29:31 AM by Runeghost »
Tossup. Montanans don't like thinking of themselves as supporters of a racist NYC billionaire. Johnson will have a good run here.

Added: I don't mean that he'll win. (Unless Trump utterly collapses.) Just get 10% or more.
Logged
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2016, 08:53:06 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2016, 09:08:14 PM by Ronnie »
I think it'll be closer than many people think.  Obama actually came within two points in 2008.

Lean R for now.  Hopefully, PPP and/or Monmouth field a poll there before November.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2016, 05:04:35 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 06, 2016, 04:43:48 PM
The Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll has Trump up 13 in the state, which is about what I would expect at this point. This is not a competitive state, but keep holding out hope.

While Hillary obviously won't win Montana in anything resembling a close race, I'm not sure that poll is the best thing to go by, unless we're to believe Texas is a Toss-Up.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2016, 05:13:07 PM »
Likely R, Trump by 10.
Logged
peterthlee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
China


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 05:43:28 AM »
Lean R
Trump 48-46-6
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,435
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2016, 04:46:08 PM »
Moving from Likely R to Safe R.

Trump appears to have consolidated much of the Rep base of evangelicals and rural Plain State regions of the country over the past month, and although Montanans can be ornery and vote for political mavericks (imho Bernie would have done quite well here), Hillary Clinton is not the type of Democrat, nor is there a huge pool of college educated suburban professionals floating around to poach.

Not to mention the wedge issue of "Guns" plays heavily in Trump's favor in a state where a majority of households own firearms for hunting, target shooting, protection against local wildlife and self defense in many rural areas where there is limited law enforcement and long response times.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.075 seconds with 14 queries.