NBC/SurveyMonkey National: Clinton +6 in Head to Head, +4 in 4-Way

[The Other Castro]

Clinton - 48% (-2)
Trump - 42% (No change)



Clinton - 41% (-2)
Trump - 37% (-1)
Johnson - 11% (No change)
Stein - 5% (No change)



http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-donald-trump-chips-away-hillary-clinton-s-national-lead-n639591?cid=sm_tw

[windjammer]

So instead of a 8.5 points lead, it appears the lead has shrunked a bit, like by 2 points. I expected a biggest shrink by the way, so that's fine.

[Speed of Sound]

I haven't actually done the math, but it appears that across the board, Trump still isn't actually growing his voter base? Seems like Clinton is just dropping a few points.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I haven't actually done the math, but it appears that across the board, Trump still isn't actually growing his voter base? Seems like Clinton is just dropping a few points.

Yes, Trump is basically stuck in the late 30s/early 40s

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So instead of a 8.5 points lead, it appears the lead has shrunked a bit, like by 2 points. I expected a biggest shrink by the way, so that's fine.

So instead of ignoring/denying polls, red hacks appear to admit at least 2 points decrease. I expected them to be waiting for Marist, so that's fine.

[windjammer]

So instead of a 8.5 points lead, it appears the lead has shrunked a bit, like by 2 points. I expected a biggest shrink by the way, so that's fine.

So instead of ignoring/denying polls, red hacks appear to admit at least 2 points decrease. I expected them to be waiting for Marist, so that's fine.

Is it the fact Trump is trailing in basically every poll that makes you so bitter?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So instead of a 8.5 points lead, it appears the lead has shrunked a bit, like by 2 points. I expected a biggest shrink by the way, so that's fine.

So instead of ignoring/denying polls, red hacks appear to admit at least 2 points decrease. I expected them to be waiting for Marist, so that's fine.

Is it the fact Trump is trailing in basically every poll that makes you so bitter?

No! Well, a little. It hurts that of all things he said, it was dumb things about women that brought him down. That had nothing to do with his policies, bro

Ok. Now I'm feeling better. Thanks!

[Dr. Arch]

I haven't actually done the math, but it appears that across the board, Trump still isn't actually growing his voter base? Seems like Clinton is just dropping a few points.

Yes, Trump is basically stuck in the late 30s/early 40s

I love the double meaning of this

[windjammer]

So instead of a 8.5 points lead, it appears the lead has shrunked a bit, like by 2 points. I expected a biggest shrink by the way, so that's fine.

So instead of ignoring/denying polls, red hacks appear to admit at least 2 points decrease. I expected them to be waiting for Marist, so that's fine.

Is it the fact Trump is trailing in basically every poll that makes you so bitter?

No! Well, a little. It hurts that of all things he said, it was dumb things about women that brought him down. That had nothing to do with his policies, bro

Ok. Now I'm feeling better. Thanks!

Glad to hear you're feeling better!

His policies are basically dumb things about women, minorities,... You contradict yourself bro!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I haven't actually done the math, but it appears that across the board, Trump still isn't actually growing his voter base? Seems like Clinton is just dropping a few points.

Yeah. Sort of.

According to Gallup daily favorability tracker Trump have always been between 31-33 since May (except the convention bump). Hillary have been jumping 37-43.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I haven't actually done the math, but it appears that across the board, Trump still isn't actually growing his voter base? Seems like Clinton is just dropping a few points.

Yes, Trump is basically stuck in the late 30s/early 40s

I love the double meaning of this

[Brittain33]

2012+NC+NE-2.

[Wiz in Wis]

2012+NC+NE-2.

At this point, this does look pretty much stable. Though NE2 is really elastic.

[afleitch]

Based on the Obama 08/12 states that Bush won in '04, Obama won them in 2012 with a lead of 3. That was smaller than his overall national lead of 3.6. Clinton on average is ahead by 4.4 in these same states. Trump has to pick these off to win.

Clinton could match the 08 margin or even best it and still win 2012 level 9f electoral votes. She might run up the numbers in the safe blue states and nip at Trump's heels in GA, SC etc but still get a 2012 style result.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

2012+NC+NE-2.

At this point, this does look pretty much stable. Though NE2 is really elastic.

But if what we're at now is kind of like the baseline of the race,  it means that Hillary definitely has potential to grow whenever Trump makes a gaffe or does something stupid. So +10 still isn't out of the question. In fact, I'm still confident we could add a few points to this number thanks to her organizational advantage. So I'd say +12 still isn't completely unrealistic either if she has a hugely successful debate performance and more goes wrong for Trump.

[Senator Cris]

It's a RV poll. It should be specified.

[The Other Castro]

It's a RV poll. It should be specified.

It says registered voters on the charts.