Prediction: Trump's vote % in NYC, Chicago, SF

[Arbitrage1980]

In 2012 Romney got 17% in NYC, 15% in Chicago, 13% in SF. 

I think Trump does worse in SF and Chicago but better in NYC.  In SF the social liberal very well educated tech people absolutely deplore Trump, even moreso than with W Bush.  Trump will probably get 6-8% in SF.  In Chicago Trump will do worse with blacks and latinos as well as the college educated white professionals, so he will probably get around 10%.  In NYC however, I see Trump winning Staten Island (traditionally GOP, went for W Bush 04 and McCain 08 but went for Obama 12) due to his appeal to blue collar cops, firemen, construction workers, etc., who live there.  I also think Trump will do better than Romney with Italian catholics in Queens and Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn.  He will most likely do worse with heavily black Bronx and with white and Asian white collar finance types in Manhattan (I'm one of them, and almost none of us support Trump).  So my guess is that Trump gets somewhere around 20-23% in NYC.

[AGA]

I am not sure that Trump can do that much worse amongst African-Americans than Romney did, but polls show that it is possible. He will definitely do worse amongst those with college degrees, however.

[Arbitrage1980]

I am not sure that Trump can do that much worse amongst African-Americans than Romney did, but polls show that it is possible. He will definitely do worst amongst those with college degrees, however.

Romney got 6% of the black vote.  Trump is currently polling at 1-2% with blacks.  To put that figure in historical context, Goldwater 64 got 6% of black votes, Wallace 68 (an actual segregationist!) got 3%.

[JA]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

[Arbitrage1980]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

Worse than Romney in his home city?

[MasterJedi]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

Worse than Romney in his home city?

Diverse, metropolitan city where he's been pandering to low educated white nationalists, not hard to see how he's hated there.

[JA]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

Worse than Romney in his home city?

Despite NYC being Trump's home city, he's an exceptionally poor fit. None of the demographics are in his favor. The only reason I doubt he'd face a comparable decline to that of other diverse and educated major cities is the relatively high support he'd likely receive from blue collar Whites for whom his appeal plus the home town effect could be persuasive.

[Illiniwek]

Zero point zero

[Breton Racer]

Trump does worse in all three
NYC: 11%
Chicago: 10%
SF: 5%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

Worse than Romney in his home city?

given that, in the primary, the one NY county he lost was (his home county of) New York (Manhattan)...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Aren't there a lot of working-class union-type white people (the type who would wear short sleeves to a Bears game in December) in Chicago that Trump could improve with?

[Arbitrage1980]

Aren't there a lot of working-class union-type white people (the type who would wear short sleeves to a Bears game in December) in Chicago that Trump could improve with?

Working class whites in Chicago are hardcore democrats.  Trump is not resonating with working class whites in the midwest; this is primarily because his core appeal is less about economics and more about cultural and social resentment.