Trump goes to Mexico

[angus]

I can't imagine the President of Mexico injecting himself into this mess.

Then you must not be paying attention.  Enrique has already mentioned Trump in the same breath with Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.  That was back in March, though, so I guess you could say he was only injecting himself into the primary election mess, not the general election mess.

I think it's probably a wise decision on Trump's part to meet with the Mexicans, and wiser still to make nice and apologize for any "unintended slight" or something like that.  On the other hand, he has to give a speech to some bloodthirsty vigilantes in Arizona tonight, and they're going to expect some red meat.  It'll take pure genius to talk out both sides and not look like he is doing that.

[angus]

The first page of El Universal has links to multiple stories and commentary, with the word "vergüenza" figuring prominently, as you might imagine. 

No real news yet, other than a short helicopter flight and some people holding up protest signs, as well as a piece that says that the PRI supports the decision to receive Trump, if I'm reading it right. 

[angus]

must be exciting.  are you in the streets now, or can you see anything from your windows?

I'm vaguely familiar with the neighborhood, and have stayed in several hotels downtown.  Is the president's residence near your offices?

edit:  I just looked it up and learned that Los Pinos is in Chapultepec Park.  I've been there too.  As I recall, it wouldn't be visible from any offices.  You should go down to the streets and see if there are any radical protesters.  First-hand reporting is always better than what gets filtered through newspapers.

[angus]

Could this possibly end up positively for Pena Nieto? What can he do to achieve that?

Well I think it was a gamble for both men.  The Donald has low approval ratings, but so does Peña.  I think that if they go into a meeting and find something to agree on and make a quick statement and don't get hit with eggs and shoes, then it shows the USA voters that Trump knows how to deal with foreigners and it shows the Mexican voters that Peña knows how to deal with bullies.  On the downside, if what gets reported here are mostly protesters and grumbling then Trump has lost the gamble and Peña has lost the gamble.  So far it is not looking good for the Mexican president.  Most of the Mexican articles are negative, and far more politicians are calling it a mistake than a wise move.  How Trump fares remains to be seen.  It doesn't really matter for Peña, because he's a lameduck anyway.  Trump's the one to watch.

It is interesting to see how quickly the mexican press updates compared to the Washington press in this case.  If you can muster enough Spanish to read them, the articles are coming in every few minutes in Journada, Universal, and Prensa.  If you can't read them, that's okay too because there are many photos worth thousands of words, most of them negative.

[angus]

Best and worse case scenarios for both men?

¿quién sabe?

I suppose realistically Trump is so far down in the polls that you can call this one a Hail Mary Pass.  Worst case for him is basically where he is now.  Loses election, goes back to being a multibillionaire bully with a fairly attractive wife.  Probably not a bad life, really, assuming one isn't bothered by a moral compass.

Worst case for Peña I figure is that he stays a lame duck with a law degree and a book deal to fall back on and a super hot wife.  Also probably not a bad life.  Impeachment has been mentioned, but I'd guess that's overkill.  If Mexican law works like US law, and I'm not sure that it does, Peña has done nothing to cause his impeachment.  Foolish, maybe, but not illegal or unethical.

[angus]

Best case scenarios?

Trump actually gets that fool to pay for a wall.  (just kidding.  A wall would be horrible for both our countries.  The one that's already there is causing more problems than it is solving.)

Best case for Trump is that he comes off looking like a leader.  Gravitas and sensitivity are deeply lacking in his persona.  Many will never vote for him, and against a more likeable Democrat, he'd be toast, but the main charges against him seem to be that (1) he doesn't know much about government and politics, (2) he will offend foreign leaders, and (3) he's a bigot.  Spun correctly, a non-confrontational meeting with the president of Mexico might deflect some of that criticism.

For the Mexican president it's a chance to show that he can stand up to the giant.  He can talk to the press about a guarantee that the US government will never ask the people of Mexico to, in the words of Vicente Fox Quesada, "build that fucking wall."  He knows that no matter who wins the election in the USA, Mexico will have to deal with that person.  There's a slim chance that it might be The Donald.  This could be a chance to offer a Mexican perspective to a rather shallow and insensitive man who has never heard a well-articulated version of the Mexican perspective.  In the long run, this meeting could have foreign policy consequences that benefit both countries.  (Of course, that's probably a stretch, but you did say "best" case.)

[angus]

Live now!!  watch and listen:   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/

[angus]

"Mexican nationals in the United States are honest people, good people...Mexicans deserve respect."
-Nieto

I caught that too.  I don't always understand when Mexicans talk fast, but the Mexican president was very articulate and I think I caught every word.  It was a good speech.

FWIW, The Donald is giving a pretty good speech too.  We'll see how the newsmedia spins all this.


DAMN!  I may have spoken too soon.  He is alluding to the wall, and saying that the Mexicans will share in the burden of its cost.

[angus]

I thought it was gracious overall.  I'm not a fan of Trump, but he generally stuck to the script, which was fairly well written.  Except for that wall bit, it was smooth.  Then again, lots of gringos actually want the wall, so even that might be a positive for The Donald.

I'd like to hear the questions but if I don't get out by about 4:40 it gets crowded on the streets and it takes far too long to drive home.  I'll read about it tonight.

Hasta luego.

[angus]

The Day After...

This is the headline in El Universal:  Tras visita, Peña ve amenaza en trump

(roughly, "after the visit, Peña sees Trump as a threat")

The washington post doesn't separate the two Trump speeches in either its headline article, On immigration, Trump speaks softly in Mexico, talks tough in Ariz., or in the Cilizza commentary, "His visit with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto was surprisingly statesmanlike, but when he stepped to the podium in Phoenix, we were reminded that he hasn't changed."

León Krauze says "Make no mistake about it: Donald Trump’s trip to Mexico was a resounding success."  It's an interesting article, and it pretty much describes the scenario I postulated in answer to TimTurner's "best case" question, minus the public apology of course.  He also makes the case that Peña missed an important political opportunity.  

A picture is indeed worth a thousand words.  In their #3 headline, La Jornada gives us this one:



Notice that it precedes a David Brooks article.  I had no that idea he could write in Spanish, but I bet he's mortified to see his good conservative name associated with the text on this picture.  In particular, I'm referring to the spelling of the second-person personal pronoun as "U".  

[angus]

Ah, nevermind.  It's a different David Brooks.