Election Night '24: My first timeline

[LLR]

... What are you smoking?

[Plankton5165]

If you live in the next state where we're about to make a projection, it is 9:47 pm.

PMB projects that the Republican Presidential Nominee, Marco Rubio will carry New York state and its 27 electoral votes. The Empire State is the home state of the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee, Elise Stefanik.

New York hasn't voted Republican since 1984 until 2020. Trump only lost the state in 2016 only because it was Hillary Clinton's home state as well.

This was a state Ke$ha really wanted, she's at 27%, Gavin Newsom is very slightly ahead at 28%, Marco Rubio is at 40%.

Marco Rubio has 258 electoral votes, exceptionally close to the magic number, already winning the election, 32 EVs for Gavin Newsom, 10 EVs for Ke$ha.

[Plankton5165]

Now we can make another projection at another state, at 9:54 pm EST.

PMB projects that the winner of Kansas is Marco Rubio, with five more electoral votes.

Rubio is at 45%, Newsom at 27%, and Ke$ha at 23%.

No Democrat has won Kansas since 1964.

Marco Rubio is exceptionally close with 263 electoral votes, a severely unsettling lead ahead, Gavin Newsom is way behind with 32 electoral votes, Ke$ha has 10.

[Devout Centrist]

God I hope this is a joke.

[Plankton5165]

It is 10:00 PM EST, polls have closed in four states, and we got a really major projection to make right now.

PMB projects that Marco Antonio Rubio will become the 46th President of the United States. We projected that he will carry the polygon state of Utah, and its 10 electoral votes.

Obama, despite losing to Romney in the Beehive State by 48 points, won the presidency in 2012. It's gonna be even worse on the Democrats in Utah now. Marco Rubio is at 71%, Ke$ha is at 20%, Gavin Newsom is at 6%.

Marco Rubio is at 273 electoral votes, Newsom 32, Ke$ha 10.

We'll see what happens in the other states...

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

God I hope this is a joke.

Me too. Somehow I don't see Ke$ha winning Tennessee.

[Plankton5165]

At 10:25 pm...

Rubio 40%, Newsom 27%, Ke$ha 32%

Rubio is the projected winner in Alabama.

PMB projects that Rubio will win Alabama and its 10 electoral votes.

Since 1980, Alabama has voted Republican, and will continue to vote Republican in 2024. This was something Ke$ha wanted, but, Rubio will carry Alabama.

Marco Rubio is at 283 EVs, already passed the 270 threshold, Newsom is at 32, Ke$ha is at 10.

[Plankton5165]

It is 10:42 pm EST, and we have another projection to make.

PMB projects that Ke$ha will win the state of Arizona and its 10 electoral votes. Republicans have only lost it twice since the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century, also in 1996.

Ke$ha is leading in the Grand Canyon State with 37%, Newsom 29%, Rubio 28%.

Marco Rubio has a lead of 283 EVs, Newsom has 32, Ke$ha now has 20 electoral votes.

[Plankton5165]

At 10:46 pm EST, we are going to project a winner. PMB projects that Minnesota will be won by Marco Rubio, he won its caucus in 2016.

Marco Rubio, at 45%, has a 12-point lead over Gavin Newsom's 33%, to Ke$ha's 19%. Ke$ha wanted the whole state. All campaigns spent so much money in Minnesota.

Until 2016 when Trump carried the state, Minnesota had the longest Democratic streak of any state, starting in 1976, however it got easier for the Republicans to carry it in later years of the streak. That record now goes to Hawaii for itself, starting in 1988. If Rubio wins Hawaii, then it will be a tie between Illinois and Maryland, neither of which have voted Republican since 1988. If Newsom wins California where he was the governor, California will join the tie, unless Hawaii is also won by Newsom.

Here's a new map: Rubio extends his lead to 293 electoral votes, Newsom is way behind with 32, Ke$ha has 20 EVs. There are two yellow states, Tennessee (right) and Arizona (left), they're for Ke$ha, the blue states are for Newsom, the red states are for Rubio, who we just projected would win president.

[Plankton5165]

It is 10:52 pm EST. Projection time!

The state of Montana will be won by Marco Rubio. Despite being the fourth largest state, Montana only has three electoral votes. Montana was carried by the Republican candidate in every election since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, with only two exceptions: The LBJ landslide in 1964, and the Bill Clinton landslide in 1992. In 1996, Bill Clinton would do even better, but he didn't carry Montana then.

Now, on to the current vote totals. Marco Rubio is at 48%, Gavin Newsom is at 27%, Ke$ha is at 20%.

Rubio has 296 electoral votes, he slightly extended his lead, it doesn't even matter, Gavin Newsom is at 32, Ke$ha is at 20.

[Plankton5165]

Two minutes later, at 10:54 pm EST, we can now make another projection.

PMB projects that the state of New Hampshire and its four electoral votes will be won by projected presidency winner Marco Rubio. He finished fifth in the 2016 primary, the state hasn't gone Republican since 1988 until 2016 when Trump carried it, with only one exception: George W. Bush in 2000.

With that, Rubio is at 300, 32 for Newsom, 20 for Ke$ha.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Somehow I don't see both Vermont and North Carolina being too close to call as late as 10:54. And while I know the election's already been called for little Marco, if Vermont is still so close, either it's the West Wing or it's over.

[Plankton5165]

Alright, it is 11:00 pm. Polls have closed in California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington state, all electoral vote rich states, especially California, still with the largest prize despite losing a whopping eight electoral votes that it had in the first four leap years of the 21st century.

We can make two projections. PMB projects Marco Rubio will carry Idaho with 8 electoral votes, and Oregon with 7 electoral votes, both total 15 electoral votes.

Idaho hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964. Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican since 1984 until 2016.

Current statistics in both states:
Idaho - Rubio 75%, Newsom 6%, Ke$ha 18%
Oregon - Rubio 76%, Newsom 8%, Ke$ha 14%

In California, no projection, in Hawaii, no projection, and in Washington state, no projection.

Marco Rubio is at 315 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom is at 32, he's way closer to Ke$ha's 20 EVs.

Ke$ha only has two states, Arizona and Tennessee. Three for Newsom, with just Illinois, Rhode Island, and Maryland (however, he also carried DC)

The red states are for Rubio, the green states aren't for anybody yet, as there isn't enough information. There is only one state left - Alaska.

Marco Rubio has only one Rust Belt state to carry if he wants them all - Michigan. It was a blue state in 2020, it voted for Kanye West, can Rubio finally flip a blue state red? We'll get to that later.

In the meantime, here is the map:

[Plankton5165]

We can finally project a winner in the state of North Carolina. Marco Rubio will win it, and its 15 electoral votes. In the 2016 primary, oddly enough, Rubio received 24% of the vote in Georgia, 22% in South Carolina, 21% in Tennessee, and 32% in Virginia, but just 8% in North Carolina.

In the election, however, it is exceptionally close. Rubio has a slight lead, 35%, to Ke$ha's 33%, to Newsom's 30%.

Let's update the totals. Rubio now has 330 electoral votes, he has broken the 10-1 barrier, Gavin Newsom is at 32, doesn't even have double of Ke$ha's EVs, she has 20.

[Plankton5165]

In Iowa, at 11:18 PM EST, Marco Rubio is the winner of its six electoral votes. 47% for him, 37% for Newsom, 14% for Ke$ha.

The state where the candidates first have their primaries, the Hawkeye State hasn't voted Republican since 1984 until 2016, when Donald Trump carried it with the help of Senator Joni Ernst, with the exception of 2004 when George W. Bush carried it. Iowa hasn't been wrong in 35 years.

Marco Rubio is very dominant, he is at 336, Gavin Newsom is way behind with 32, Ke$ha has 20.

[Plankton5165]

Just one minute later, we instantly project another win for Marco Rubio. PMB projects he will carry the state of Connecticut, and its five electoral votes.

Connecticut hasn't voted Republican since 1988 until 2016, Rubio is at 41%, Newsom is at 39%, Ke$ha is at 16%, she hoped to carry the state.

Rubio has 341 electoral votes, Newsom has 32, and Ke$ha has 20.

[Plankton5165]

At 11:24 pm, we have another projection to make. Marco Rubio will win Colorado and its 10 electoral votes. He has 41%, to 39% for Newsom, 16% for Ke$ha.

With the polygon state in his vault, Marco Rubio has 351 EVs. Newsom 32, Ke$ha 20.

[heatcharger]

Wtf happened in California for it to lose 8 electoral votes in reapportionment?

[Plankton5165]

At 11:31 pm, we can make a critical projection.

PMB projects that Gavin Newsom will win his home state of California, all 47 electoral votes will go to Gavin Newsom. It was Ke$ha's birth state, she would've felt extra great had she carried the Golden State, Newsom will carry California, the state with the largest prize of all states since 1972.

California hasn't voted Republican since 1988, doesn't vote Republican in 2024 either. Newsom is at 46%, Rubio and Ke$ha are both tied when estimated, at 26%.

However, it doesn't matter. Rubio still broke through the magic number, he is still at 351, Newsom's score is still in the double digits, at 79, Ke$ha holds at 20.

[Plankton5165]

It is 12:32 PM, we can make another projection.

PMB projects that the winner of Nevada is Marco Rubio, and its 10 electoral votes. Nevada only voted for the loser twice after the death of Queen Victoria who just made the 20th century: once in 1908, and again in 1976. Until 1984, Nevada had only three electoral votes, went up from 6 to 10 in 2024, making it even more difficult to win president without carrying the Silver State.

Now, let's take a look at the current votes. 37% for Rubio, 32% for Ke$ha, 30% for Newsom. All three campaigns spent so much money on Nevada, all three candidates wanted to carry Nevada badly, the person who will carry Nevada is Marco Rubio.

Now, let's take a look at the states where we're yet to project a winner:

• In Alaska: Polls will close in 28 minutes
• In Hawaii: Rubio 44%, Newsom 40%, Ke$ha 13%
• In Louisiana: Rubio 32%, Newsom 34%, Ke$ha 33%
• In Massachusetts: Rubio 37%, Newsom 39%, Ke$ha 20%
• In Mississippi: Rubio 33%, Newsom 33%, Ke$ha 33%
• In Missouri: Rubio 37%, Newsom 27%, Ke$ha 34%
• In New Mexico: Rubio 32%, Newsom 32%, Ke$ha 32%
• In Vermont: Rubio 40%, Newsom 40%, Ke$ha 16%
• In Washington state: Rubio 34%, Newsom 34%, Ke$ha 28%

In the meantime, Rubio has 361 electoral votes, Gavin Newsom has 79 electoral votes, and Ke$ha has 20.

[Plankton5165]

At 12:35 pm, PMB can finally project a winner in Vermont. Marco Rubio is the winner. He's at 41%, Newsom's at 39%, Ke$ha's at 15%.

Vermont has electoral history similar to New Jersey, except it has NEVER voted Democrat prior to the assassination of JFK. Trump was narrowly able to revive the Republican history of the Green Mountain State by flipping the state from a dark blue state to a red state, as Trump won the primary, Hillary couldn't get a single delegate from the primary.

Marco Rubio has 365 electoral votes, 79 for Newsom, 20 for Ke$ha.

[Plankton5165]

It's 1:00 am EST on November 6, 2024, and the polls have closed in Alaska. No projection, however, here are the current results: 47% for Rubio, 31% for Ke$ha, 18% for Newsom.

Alaska is the home state of the Independent vice presidential nominee, Bill Walker.

Let's take a look at the new map. Same EV totals, but Alaska's polls are now closed.

[Plankton5165]

At 1:47 pm EST, PMB can project another winner in another state. Marco Rubio is the winner in the state of Alaska, the largest state, despite that, only three electoral votes, Bill Walker, the Independent VP nominee, was the governor there.

Alaska has only been lost by the Republicans in the 1964 LBJ landslide over Barry Goldwater.

Rubio has 43%, Newsom is at 30%, and Ke$ha is at 24%.

In the 2016 primary, Rubio didn't do good in the newest states, only getting fifteen percent in Alaska and thirteen percent in Hawaii.

Rubio has 368 EVs now. 79 for Newsom, and 20 for Ke$ha.

[Plankton5165]

It is 4:12 AM EST, on November 6, 2016. Gavin Newsom is the winner in the state of Hawaii. 42% for him, 41% for Newsom, 15% for Ke$ha.

Hawaii was only won by the Republicans in 1972 and 1984.

Rubio holds at 368, Newsom increases his lead to 89, Ke$ha is at 20.

The yellow states are for Ke$ha, the blue states are for Newsom, the red states are for Rubio, the green states are too close to call.

[Plankton5165]

Normally a strongly Democratic state, we can project at 5:19 AM EST, on November 6, Marco Rubio will carry Washington state, 10 electoral votes for Marco Rubio.

Washington hasn't voted Republican since 1984 until 2020. Hillary Clinton narrowly managed to carry the state, Kanye West could not do it.

With Washington in his corner, Rubio is at 378 electoral votes. 89 for Gavin Newsom, still at double-digits. Ke$ha is still at 20.