Why is the race tightening?

[pbrower2a]

Trump didn't say stupid sh*t for a while.

Yesterday, he gave up and did it again.

That happened. Democrats will not let him get away with anything going into November.

[Hermit For Peace]

I'm still kind of in shock about the fact that Trump is polling as high as he is. He's a total mentally unbalanced crackpot. It just amazes me that people are behind him in any way.

Truly amazing....

[Speed of Sound]

Trump isn't gaining. He's stagnant. Hilary's numbers have dropped a couple points. Big difference!

Yeah, this part of it seems underconsidered a lot.

[elcorazon]

I'm still kind of in shock about the fact that Trump is polling as high as he is. He's a total mentally unbalanced crackpot. It just amazes me that people are behind him in any way.

Truly amazing....

sad

[PeteB]

Why?

Because Hillary Clinton, while obviously technically competent and capable of doing the job, is highly distrusted and disliked by the electorate, across the board (Republicans, Democrats and independents).

Because she is facing Trump, she will eventually win by default, but the polls speak for themselves.

This has nothing to do with Donald Trump and everything to do with Hillary's weaknesses. Paul Ryan and the GOP must be kicking themselves, as they slowly realize how they missed the chance of a generation!

[Inmate Trump]

There is a large percentage of the American electorate who are uneducated.

There's a large percentage with short attention spans, who get bored with a thought-out discussion of policy, and are attracted to Trump's idiotic but bold actions and statements.

Then there's a percentage that just want to watch the world burn.

The same candidates but rewinding to when America used to be great, this wouldn't even be close--Hillary would win in a landslide.  Let's make America great again.

[elcorazon]

If it weren't for Donald Trump, Clinton would be the most unpopular major-party presidential nominee in modern US history. That's the biggest reason why this race isn't a blowout.

lucky for Trump the media is out to get Clinton

[heatcharger]

If it weren't for Donald Trump, Clinton would be the most unpopular major-party presidential nominee in modern US history. That's the biggest reason why this race isn't a blowout.

lucky for Trump the media is out to get Clinton

inb4

Republicans/conservatives don't understand that the media has monetary interests to keep this election close, because "Clinton continues to lead everywhere" isn't a story that gets ratings.

The weekly manufactured "scandal" also gets better ratings than "Clinton releases mental health plan".

[Hermit For Peace]

I'm still kind of in shock about the fact that Trump is polling as high as he is. He's a total mentally unbalanced crackpot. It just amazes me that people are behind him in any way.

Truly amazing....

sad

What is sad?

[IceSpear]

Oh great, another "choose your own adventure for a blatantly obvious question" thread...

Obviously it is because her huge lead was only due to the convention bounce and the Khan comments, both of which have faded from the typical American goldfish attention span, just as I stated countless times they would a month ago.

[Dakota Devil]

I'm still kind of in shock about the fact that Trump is polling as high as he is. He's a total mentally unbalanced crackpot. It just amazes me that people are behind him in any way.

Truly amazing....

frightening

[Maxwell]

also, Republican leaning undecideds heading to Trump.

Because, as I look at the numbers, Hillary's numbers have barely budged, only Trump's have gone up.

[DavidB.]

Trump didn't say stupid sh*t for a while.

Yesterday, he gave up and did it again.

This. We'll see the result of Trump's Gaffe Wednesday next week.

What gaffe did he make, exactly?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump didn't say stupid sh*t for a while.

Yesterday, he gave up and did it again.

This. We'll see the result of Trump's Gaffe Wednesday next week.

What gaffe did he make, exactly?

No amnesty for criminals

[PresidentSamTilden]

Oh great, another "choose your own adventure for a blatantly obvious question" thread...

Obviously it is because her huge lead was only due to the convention bounce and the Khan comments, both of which have faded from the typical American goldfish attention span, just as I stated countless times they would a month ago.

Sorry man, we're not all as smart as you. I'm just trying to figure out what's going on...

[°Leprechaun]

Both Trump and Clinton are below 60% in every state.
In DC Clinton is only at 66%.

Lightly shaded states are not necessarily close.
Grey states show how Trump could lose Ohio and PA
and still only get to 269.
Lightly shaded states are those where neither candidate
is at a majority.

Ohio is actually closer than some of the other states, but I painted in red
rather than grey because Clinton really needs to fight hard there and in
Florida which is currently tied. (also it shows the possibility however remote of a tie)
 

I am not convinced Clinton has this locked up. October will be the critical month to see if she can maintain her tenuous lead. Clinton is ahead by large margins in many states,
but not enough to have this locked up.

[°Leprechaun]

Note: a tie is only possible if Trump wins every grey state, which, of course, is highly unlikely.
The red states = 269.

[Dr. Arch]

FL, CO, and VA are most certainly not tied. CO and VA aren't even close.

[TrumpCard]

Despite extra candidates in the race, it will still come down to NH, PA, OH, IA, CO, VA and FL.  Although Kaine seems to have solidified VA and I don't see Trump winning without PA or CO, IA, and NH.  This is if he gets FL and OH.

[Speed of Sound]

In DC Clinton is only at 66%.

I'll eat my laptop if she finishes under 85% in DC.

[°Leprechaun]

In DC Clinton is only at 66%.

I'll eat my laptop if she finishes under 85% in DC.

I hope it's made of something tasty! (Although I think she will hit 85%)

[°Leprechaun]

FL, CO, and VA are most certainly not tied. CO and VA aren't even close.

I disagree about FL. VA was only close in one poll Hampton U and probably an outlier.
Admitedlly CO is a real long shot for Trump, currently Clinton is highly unlike to lose the state, but we still have two months to go.

My "thesis" if you will is based on today's analysis from the following cite:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep02.html
Clearly I had to swap CO with OH to show the highly unlikely tie scenario.

[°Leprechaun]

The five grey states are critical and perhaps show Trump's only path to victory. In the past they have trended GOP but are currently trending Dem, FL is crucial of course with a large hispanic population strongly favoring Clinton.

[°Leprechaun]

The confusion comes from the undecideds. Trump would need about 100% of them and still could fall short of 269/270. A tie could be interesting if the Dems get to 50 in the Senate.
We'd have Trump/Kaine, I guess.

[NeverAgain]

I mean the only way this race closens is barring more email stuff or Trump makes a serious comeback. Neither of those are likely ( and even if they were I think he'll flunk not only the debates, but also make some gaffes along the way)