Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Consul Mitofsky poll has AMLO ahead of PAN with PRI running third.  PRI is improving and most likely under-polling.   PRI's Chong does have high negatives which means PRI will have a low ceiling. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Doesn't look like Zavala's national tour is going well for her, is it?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I wonder if Osorio Chong's role in (denying) the government spying scandal will have any effect on his chances, seeing as he looks to be the likely PRI nominee.

[jaichind]

Doesn't look like Zavala's national tour is going well for her, is it?

It's not.  She seems to be losing ground to PAN president Anaya.  The more people see of her the more unpopular she seems to get.  Her poll rating is falling to to about the same as a generic PAN candidate.  This means Anaya is gaining ground internally within PAN and as a result PAN has decided to go for an opposition alliance, which is what Anaya is pushing for versus Zavala's position of going it alone.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Doesn't look like Zavala's national tour is going well for her, is it?

It's not.  She seems to be losing ground to PAN president Anaya.  The more people see of her the more unpopular she seems to get.  Her poll rating is falling to to about the same as a generic PAN candidate.  This means Anaya is gaining ground internally within PAN and as a result PAN has decided to go for an opposition alliance, which is what Anaya is pushing for versus Zavala's position of going it alone.

I've heard talk of the PAN-PRD alliance running Anaya for President and Alejandra Barrales for governor of Mexico City to smooth things out for both of them? How accurate would you say that is and do you think those plans would affect a potential PAN-PRD alliance?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So not only can you vote for an alliance or the individual party, but also variants of alliances?

[jaichind]

I wonder if Osorio Chong's role in (denying) the government spying scandal will have any effect on his chances, seeing as he looks to be the likely PRI nominee.

Not very much I suspect.  I think only the urban vote in high density cities would care about this and most of them are voting PAN, PRD or even MORENA anyway. 

[jaichind]

I've heard talk of the PAN-PRD alliance running Anaya for President and Alejandra Barrales for governor of Mexico City to smooth things out for both of them? How accurate would you say that is and do you think those plans would affect a potential PAN-PRD alliance?

Yep, that is what I am reading as well.  Of course there are flies in the ointment.   PAN's  Zavala is opposed to this deal, especially the part where she is not the PAN candidate, and while she will not run as an independent, her faction might not go all in during the campaign.  Current head of Mexico City Mancera who would most like the PRD candidate could end up running separately as an independent.  It is not all that clear yet that Anaya and Barrales unite their respective parties behind this alliance with defections to AMLO or independent runs.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I've heard talk of the PAN-PRD alliance running Anaya for President and Alejandra Barrales for governor of Mexico City to smooth things out for both of them? How accurate would you say that is and do you think those plans would affect a potential PAN-PRD alliance?

Yep, that is what I am reading as well.  Of course there are flies in the ointment.   PAN's  Zavala is opposed to this deal, especially the part where she is not the PAN candidate, and while she will not run as an independent, her faction might not go all in during the campaign.  Current head of Mexico City Mancera who would most like the PRD candidate could end up running separately as an independent.  It is not all that clear yet that Anaya and Barrales unite their respective parties behind this alliance with defections to AMLO or independent runs.

Certainly, and even if Mancera wouldn't want to run as an independent there's a contingent of perredistas who would end up going for AMLO anyway.

[jaichind]

Certainly, and even if Mancera wouldn't want to run as an independent there's a contingent of perredistas who would end up going for AMLO anyway.

Yeah.  That is always the problem with PAN-PRD alliance.  There are going to be defections left and right although perhaps the fear of PRI or AMLO winning might pull them together again.  For PRD it is really hard since if they do not go for PAN-PRD alliance there are going to be tactical voting by PRD for PAN in the election which further erode the PRD negotiating position.  PRD performed above par in the Edomex election so they are now trying to get the best deal while their market price is higher than a few month ago.

[jaichind]

New GEA-ISA  poll

Long report in
http://www.isa.org.mx/contenido/GIMX1706p.pdf

What I got out of it

View of parties Positive/Negative

PAN        30/44
PRI         24/54
PRD        19/42
PVEM        8/28
PT             3/19
MC            4/12
PANAL       6/14
MORENA  29/23

MORENA only party that is net positive

Party Support (change from march 17)

PAN        20 (+1)
PRI         20 (-1)
PRD          6 (-1)
PVEM        1
MC            1
PANAL       1
PES           0
MORENA  19 (+4)

MORENA surge

Party that you will never vote for (change from Mar 17)

PAN         11 (+2)
PRI          37  (+9)
PRD         10  (-4)
PVEM         3 (-2)
MC             2
PANAL        2  (+1)
MORENA     7
PES            1

A lot of anti-PRI voters out there.  Could make the way for anti-PRI tactical voting in the Prez race.


Vote for Prez 18 by party (change since Mar 17)

PAN           20
PRI            19
PRD             6 (-1)
MORENA    19 (+4)

Similar MORENA surge


Certain and possible vote by party for Prez once Null and not voting filtered out

PAN        30.0   with 4.5 additional possible vote
PRI         28.4   with 0.9 additional possible vote
PRD          8.6   with 4.7 additional possible vote
MORENA 28.5   with 7.4 additional possible vote

MORENA has the most possible growth, PRI the least.


PAN Prez candidates (PAN supporters)  (change from Mar 17)
Ricardo Anaya             30   (+8)
Margarita Zavala         25   (-11)
Moreno Valle               14   (+7) (former PAN governor of Puebla)

Anaya takes the lead over Zavala



PRI Prez candidates (PRI+PVEM supporters)

Eruviel Ávila             29  (+12)  (current outgoing Governor of Edomex)
Osorio Chong            15 (+5)


PRD Prez candidate (PRD supporters)

Miguel Mancera        34 (-16)  Head of DF Mexico
AMLO                       6 (-8)
Silvano Aureoles     10 (+10)  Current PRD of Michoacán

AMLO influence falling



Positive Negative rating of possible Prezcandidates

Ricardo Anaya(PAN)      26/24
Margarita Zavala(PAN)  27/27
Moreno Valle(PAN)        19/10
Silvano Aureoles (PRD)   3/14
Miguel Mancera(PRD)    13/23
Eruviel Ávila(PRI)         16/36
Osorio Chong(PRI)        13/31
AMLO(MORENA)           28/39

The two top PAN candidates only ones close to being above water in terms of positive/negative ratings and have significant name recognition  


Election scenarios

AMLO(MORENA)            21
Ricardo Anaya(PAN)      19
Eruviel Ávila(PRI)          13
Miguel Mancera(PRD)      3

AMLO(MORENA)            21
Margarita Zavala(PAN)   21
Eruviel Ávila(PRI)          11
Miguel Mancera(PRD)      3

AMLO(MORENA)            22
Ricardo Anaya(PAN)      19
Osorio Chong(PRI)        10
Miguel Mancera(PRD)      4

AMLO(MORENA)            21
Margarita Zavala(PAN)   21
Osorio Chong(PRI)         10
Miguel Mancera(PRD)      4

Margarita Zavala polls a bit better than Ricardo Anaya even though Ricardo Anaya  is ahead among PAN supporters.    While Eruviel Ávila polls slightly ahead of Osorio Chong.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently the PVEM is "open" to joining the PAN-PRD alliance. http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2017/06/28/pvem-da-la-espalda-al-pri-y-voltea-al-pan-y-prd

[jaichind]

Apparently the PVEM is "open" to joining the PAN-PRD alliance. http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2017/06/28/pvem-da-la-espalda-al-pri-y-voltea-al-pan-y-prd

Most likely a ploy for PRI to pay more.   The word is that PRI most has PVEM and PANAL locked up as allies for 2018 and more likely PES as well.

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll

Party support (none not stripped out)  PRI making comeback


PAN        18.2 (-0.2)
MORENA  17.7 (+1.8  )
PRI         16.6 (+3.6)
PRD         6.7 (+1.6)

Generic Prez poll


PAN       26
PRI        24
MORENA 23
PRD       10
Ind.        6

Generic Congressional poll


PRI         28
PAN        26
MORENA  22
PRD         9
PVEM       5
PANAL      2
MC          2
PT           2
PES         1



Chong strongest candidate for PRI, Zavala strongest for PAN



Chong vs Zavala vs AMLO has

AMLO(MORENA)        30
Zavala (PAN)            28
Chong(PRI)              24
Mancera(PRD)          10
El Bronco (Ind)          8

which means Zavala fell back and AMLO gained since April

[jaichind]

PRI says it is open to a non-PRI party candidate for PRI.    This opens the way for Secretary of Health José Narro Robles who is not a PRI member to perhaps to be the PRI candidate.   There has been talk of Narro running for President or be appointed head of Mexico Central Bank.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-04/mexico-s-ruling-party-open-to-non-party-candidates-ochoa-says

[jaichind]

The PAN-PRD alliance talks is throwing up all sort of ideas which really stems from lack of clarity on what the goal is.  As I mentioned before, the best way to beat PRI in 2018 is for a PAN-PRD alliance but that is also the best way to let in AMLO.  So PAN-PRD has to prioritize its goals.  Different parts of PRD and PAN prioritize these goals differently.  So now there are a bunch of PRD leaders saying they are for the PAN-PRD alliance but they have to rope in AMLO into the alliance to stop PRI.  There are also PAN leaders saying that this alliance should rope in PRI so there can be a grand alliance to stop AMLO.

[jaichind]

Nice map of which party holds the governorship, which party has the most seats in State Congress and which party has the most mayors by state.

[jaichind]

Mexico City 2018 head  El Financiero

Support by party


MORENA     39
PAN            18
PRD            17
PRI             13
Ind.              6

With real candidates

If Montreal is the MORENA candidate it is
MORENA     39
PAN            22
PRD            20
PRI-PVEM    19


If it is PAN-PRD alliance then some support leak from PRD to MORENA

MORENA-PT           46
PAN-PRD               35
PRI-PVEM-PANAL    19


It does not seem to matter if the PAN-PRD candidate is someone from PAN or PRD their level of support is around 30%. 


If PAN-PRD go with PRD's Barrles then some PAN support leak to PRI-PVEM
MORENA            45
PRD-PAN            31
PRI-PVEM           24

If PAN-PRD go with PAN's Galvez then some PRD support leak to MORENA
MORENA            48
PAN-PRD            30
PRI-PVEM           22

Seems to confirm the theory that PAN-PRD alliance will leak votes and one cannot sum the vote shares of the two parties compute the support for their candidate.

[jaichind]

Official Nayarit state assembly seat allocation out but does not have breakdown between District and PR should I had to infer it.  What makes it hard are candidates that won on alliance tickets.  It is unclear which party would said winner would be counted toward since that would affect how PR seats are allocated.


Old Nayarit state assembly  (small PRI-PVEM majority)  district and PR

             District          PR             Total
PRI           13               2               15
PVEM          1               1                2
PAN            2               4                6
PRD            1               2                3
PT              0               2                 2
MORENA     1               1                2  (I suspected they were elected as PRD but defected to MORENA)

New  Nayarit state assembly (PAN-PRD-PT majority)

             District          PR             Total
PAN          10               0               10   (no PR PAN due to too high seat count given vote share)
PRD            4               2                 6
PT              1                1                 2
PRI            2                5                 7
PVEM         0                1                 1
MORENA    1                2                 3
MC             0               1                 1

[jaichind]

Reforma poll



Party support for President in 2018 has MORENA ahead
MORENA      28
PAN             23
PRI              17
PRD              6
PVEM            5
MC               3
Ind.            10
Others          8

By 80-13 margin there is a desire for change of government

With top candidates from each party (Zavala for PAN, Chong for PRI, Marcena for PRD) and with and w/o El Bronco


MORENA (AMLO)      30
PAN (Zavala)           26
PRI (Chong)            14
PRD (Marcena)          6
Ind (El Bronco)         5

and w/o El Bronco
MORENA (AMLO)      31
PAN (Zavala)           26
PRI (Chong)            15
PRD (Marcena)          7


When asked about PAN-PRD alliance 43 was for PAN-PRD and 39 was for MORENA


but when presented with the PAN-PRD candidates AMLO was still ahead

With PAN's Zavala
MORENA (AMLO)      30
PAN-PRD (Zavala)    27
PRI (Chong)            14
Ind (El Bronco)          9

With PAN's Anaya
MORENA (AMLO)      32
PAN-PRD (ANaya)     17
PRI (Chong)            17
Ind (El Bronco)          8

With PRD's Mancera
MORENA (AMLO)      33
PAN-PRD (Mancera) 16
PRI (Chong)            17
Ind (El Bronco)          8

Which means on paper PAN-PRD seems strong but in reality there will be defections one way or another depending on which candidate they run.

Other PRI candidates poll in the single digits so Chong is PRI's only real hope

If PAN goes with Anaya then it becomes

MORENA (AMLO)      30
PAN (Anaya)            15
PRI (Chong)            16
PRD (Marcena)          9
Ind (El Bronco)          7

with other PAN candidates doing even worse.  


So Zavala is PAN's only hope.

As for which PAN candidate is better
Zavala leads Anaya and Valle 36-21-9 among general population and 51-28-13 for PAN supporters

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll

Support for 2018
PAN          18.6
MORENA   17.7
PRI           16.6
PRD           6.7





And with alliances
PAN-PRD-MC               21.7
MORENA-PT                16.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  15.9
Independent                5.5





All the major candidates underwater in terms of net approval but AMLO has the highest name recognition.

[jaichind]

It seems PRI has changed it rules to allowed for non-PRI members to run as the PRI candidate for Prez.  It seems poor poll ratings/image of the party and Nieto has driven the party to look for possible outsiders if popular consensus does not emerge.  This will open the door for Meade who is the current  Secretary of Finance and a non-PRI member with ties to PAN historically to able to run for the nomination. 

[jaichind]

Parametria poll done in late June

Support by party for Prez vote


MORENA    26
PAN           25
PRI           18
PRD            5
PVEM          3
PT              3
MC             1
PANAL        0
PES            0


Support by alliance


PAN-PRD-MC                 35
MORENA-PT                  33
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    21

Surprising how strong MORENA-PT is in even when PAN-PRD-MC unites.

[jaichind]

Aristegui Noticias y Aristegui en vivo poll done during July for Prez election






By party

MORENA           29
PAN                  25
PRI                   18
PRD                  10
PVEM                 5
MC                    4
PANAL               2
PT                     2
PES                   1


By Alliance

MORENA-PT-MC            37
PAN-PRD                      29
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    29


MORENA-PT-MC                    43
PAN-PRD-PVEM-PANAL-PES    37
PRI                                      14

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll for Prez



If we go with the strongest candidates of all parties (PAN PRI MORENA and PRD)

MORENA (AMLO)      24.2
PAN (Zavala)           20.7
PRI (Chong)            15.2
PRD (Marcena)          7.0
Ind (El Bronco)          5.2