VA-Emerson: Clinton +1

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

These Emerson polls are junk because people voting for Trump? Seriously? That's like voting for Kanye West.

[DrScholl]

If it really was this close, Clinton wouldn't have the ads. The fact that her staff is advising her to prepare for a landslide tells you all you need to know about this election. It is not going to be close at all.

Mitt Romney's staff told him the same thing.

Mitt Romney is not Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is not Barack Obama, so I fail to see a valid comparison. Republicans always overestimate their chances. Democrats rarely do.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

so I fail

[DrScholl]

If it really was this close, Clinton wouldn't have the ads. The fact that her staff is advising her to prepare for a landslide tells you all you need to know about this election. It is not going to be close at all.

I make me feel myself racist, because you confirm literally all my stereotypes about "stupid african-americans".

Level of denial!

Get help. Really get help.

[Tender Branson]

If VA and CO are tightening too now, Hillary has a problem.

Not a big problem yet, but a problem ...

[Seriously?]

If it really was this close, Clinton wouldn't have the ads. The fact that her staff is advising her to prepare for a landslide tells you all you need to know about this election. It is not going to be close at all.

Mitt Romney's staff told him the same thing.

[PaperKooper]

So, a poll is considered bad by Atlas if it shows a pro-GOP result and good if it shows a pro-Democrat one??

Yes

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So, a poll is considered bad by Atlas if it shows a pro-GOP result and good if it shows a pro-Democrat one??

Yes

[publicunofficial]

If you don't understand why a landline only poll would produce a skewed result, or why weighting results based on 2012's vote is a bad idea, you honestly should not be on this forum.

[heatcharger]

If you don't understand why a landline only poll would produce a skewed result, or why weighting results based on 2012's vote is a bad idea, you honestly should not be on this forum.

B-b-but... red avatars are such hacks! It's totally possible Virginia swung 10+ points within a month!

[publicunofficial]

To be clear: If Emerson used their exact current methodology and got a result saying Hillary was decently leading, I would still say this is a junk poll.

[Person Man]

To be clear: If Emerson used their exact current methodology and got a result saying Hillary was decently leading, I would still say this is a junk poll.

Who knows, though. Maybe people who only know English and have landlines will vote in Virginia in two months, amIright?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

To be clear: If Emerson used their exact current methodology and got a result saying Hillary was decently leading, I would still say this is a junk poll.

I believe you, folks!

[Senator Cris]

At this rate, I think it makes a lot more sense to agree that things have tightened significantly than to find reasons to doubt every poll.

It may be true that this poll is questionable at best. But it's not a total fabrication. Give Clinton a few extra points and the race is still closer than it should be, and certainly too close for comfort.

This.
Really, please stop to find every possible justification. The race is tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but it's more close that one month ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She'll win 272-303 electors and FL isn't needed to win.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Emerson is looking really dumb with putting out such junk.

[NOVA Green]

I'll hold out for a post labor day poll that includes landlines from a decent grade pollster before making any assumptions that VA has tightened so dramatically.

For one, we've had multiple polls showing Hillary leading by overwhelming margins in NOVA, decent margins in the crucial swing area of SE VA and this only shows her up 43-34 "In the Northern part of the state" while holding a slight edge in SE VA.

The math for NOVA doesn't appear to match even the past few Presidential Elections, let alone what CW tells us about college educated White voters, as well as the fast growing minority populations in this part of the state, for even a baseline Clinton margin there.

[pbrower2a]

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.

Looks like Emerson has been busy lately, lol.

Busier than everyone else? Busier than everyone else combined, except for some advocacy-group polling by PPP? Something could be fishy here.

Quinnipiac and Marist at most poll three states at a time, and then they rotate among the states in question.  But Emerson College is polling every imaginable swing state?  This looks about as kosher as a ham-and-cheese sandwich with clam sauce on the side, with wine made with libations to Bacchus. 

[Doimper]

If it really was this close, Clinton wouldn't have the ads. The fact that her staff is advising her to prepare for a landslide tells you all you need to know about this election. It is not going to be close at all.

Where did you read this?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.

Looks like Emerson has been busy lately, lol.

Busier than everyone else? Busier than everyone else combined, except for some advocacy-group polling by PPP? Something could be fishy here.

Quinnipiac and Marist at most poll three states at a time, and then they rotate among the states in question.  But Emerson College is polling every imaginable swing state?  This looks about as kosher as a ham-and-cheese sandwich with clam sauce on the side, with wine made with libations to Bacchus. 

Please, shoot me...
Everyone likes conspiracy theories!!!!111

[Smash255]

At this rate, I think it makes a lot more sense to agree that things have tightened significantly than to find reasons to doubt every poll.

It may be true that this poll is questionable at best. But it's not a total fabrication. Give Clinton a few extra points and the race is still closer than it should be, and certainly too close for comfort.

This.
Really, please stop to find every possible justification. The race is tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but it's more close that one month ago.

The race has tightened a bit, however bad landline only polls with terrible methodology are still bad landline only polls with terrible methodology.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

At this rate, I think it makes a lot more sense to agree that things have tightened significantly than to find reasons to doubt every poll.

It may be true that this poll is questionable at best. But it's not a total fabrication. Give Clinton a few extra points and the race is still closer than it should be, and certainly too close for comfort.

This.
Really, please stop to find every possible justification. The race is tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but it's more close that one month ago.

The race has tightened a bit, however bad landline only polls with terrible methodology are still bad landline only polls with terrible methodology.

They are B pollster with R house effect [according to 538], what's a problem?
They were not terrbile before [according to 538], so they probably are not terrible now.
And their results are consistent with nationall polls (after house effect adjustment).

So yeah, what's your problem?

[Spark]

That is a MAJOR problem for her.

[NOVA Green]

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.

Looks like Emerson has been busy lately, lol.

Busier than everyone else? Busier than everyone else combined, except for some advocacy-group polling by PPP? Something could be fishy here.

Quinnipiac and Marist at most poll three states at a time, and then they rotate among the states in question.  But Emerson College is polling every imaginable swing state?  This looks about as kosher as a ham-and-cheese sandwich with clam sauce on the side, with wine made with libations to Bacchus. 

Not to mention that all these polls get dumped from the worst polling weekend of the election season, where many Americans are enjoying their last Summer vacation, taking their kids out for the day/week, younger Americans are enjoying their last weekend before they go back to college, and basically you have a large number of Seniors sitting at home and responding to automated polls!

If I didn't know better, one might suspect that Emerson's poll dump based upon the shoddiest methodology and where the samples are least representative of the actual electorate, were actually just shills to pump up the most favorable Trump numbers so he can create a sense of false confidence to his supporters, and go back to tweeting about his awesome poll numbers.

These polls definitely don't appear Kosher, considering the extreme combination of red meat and cheese involved. Looks Treif to me....

[Lachi]

So, a poll is considered bad by Atlas if it shows a pro-GOP result and good if it shows a pro-Democrat one??

No, it's because of the hilariously horrible methodology. Landline only, and using the results of the LAST election to weight an opinion poll is just wrong.