Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19

[HillOfANight]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5014/7275/0241/AV_National_Release_Toplines.pdf
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/clinton-trounces-trump-new-poll-latino-voters

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clinton 70 (71)
Trump 19 (24)

Clinton
Favorable 68
Unfavorable 29

Trump
Favorable 21
Unfavorable 74

[Xing]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This makes a difference.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It looks actually pretty good for Trump
But it'd very interesting, if those numbers have changed after his terrific speech

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/latino-decisions-obama-73-romney-21-with-hispanic-voters-147565

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Surprisingly Trump is only doing moderately worse with Hispanics. However, I still don't think Trump is going to get > 20%. We are likely going to see a surge in turnout among Hispanic voters, and mostly against Trump. That will probably help dilute his margins.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/latino-decisions-obama-73-romney-21-with-hispanic-voters-147565

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Surprisingly for Dems on Atlas only Trump is only doing moderately worse with Hispanics. However, I still don't think Trump is going to get > 20%. We are likely going to see a surge in turnout among Hispanic voters, and mostly against Trump. That will probably help dilute his margins.

As I said, it is women, that makes it hard for Trump. He's probably doing much better among Hispanics men than Romney. How does it sound?

[publicunofficial]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/latino-decisions-obama-73-romney-21-with-hispanic-voters-147565

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Surprisingly Trump is only doing moderately worse with Hispanics. However, I still don't think Trump is going to get > 20%. We are likely going to see a surge in turnout among Hispanic voters, and mostly against Trump. That will probably help dilute his margins.

It's possible that Democrats already reached their ceiling in 2012 with their share of the Latino vote. But they can still improve on turnout.

[Virginiá]

As I said, it is women, that makes it hard for Trump. He's probably doing much better among Hispanics men than Romney. How does it sound?

Please don't act like you are the arbiter of world knowledge outside Atlas. As the article said, he was doing even worse in previous polls, so with that in mind and knowing what we know about his rhetoric and policy positions, it is in fact surprising that he is holding higher margins right now.

Honestly LittleBig, just put me on ignore please. You're a dick and annoying to boot, and I'd prefer it if you didn't respond to any of my posts. If you can't be civil at least half the time, then just bug off.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/latino-decisions-obama-73-romney-21-with-hispanic-voters-147565

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Surprisingly Trump is only doing moderately worse with Hispanics. However, I still don't think Trump is going to get > 20%. We are likely going to see a surge in turnout among Hispanic voters, and mostly against Trump. That will probably help dilute his margins.

I think comparing August 2016 to August 2012 makes more sense. Trump will probably poll worse in October now that he's gone full deporter.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5613/4611/4431/Tracker_-_toplines_week_1.pdf
On their 8/27/12 poll, it was Obama 65 Romney 26 (+39) vs +51 now.

November 2011 was +43 Obama,
http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/1613/5257/8772/UnivisionLatino_DecisionsNationalLatinoElectoratePoll.pdf

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/06/08/new-ld-poll-finds-latinos-favor-obama-over-romney-oppose-rubio-dream/
June 2012 was +43 as well.

[Seriously?]

Per the Washington Post.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sourcing: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-isnt-doing-better-than-previous-democrats-with-latinos--even-against-trump/2016/09/02/9daa792a-7052-11e6-8365-b19e428a975e_story.html

[Fusionmunster]

Its not about doing better, its about turnout.

[Wells]

This poll was taken before Trump's disastrous immigration speech.

[Sbane]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

[dspNY]

Um, she's doing much better and Trump is doing much worse. You are willfully obtuse

Latino vote share in the last four presidential elections:

2000: Gore 62, Bush 35 (-27)
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 44 (-9)
2008: Obama 67, McCain 31 (-36)
2012: Obama 71, Romney 27 (-44)

2016: Clinton 70, Trump 19 (-51)

Latino Decisions is the go-to poll with Latino voters because they do deep-dive polling in both languages, unlike the national polls who only take subsamples of 125 Latino voters

[Trapsy]

It looks actually pretty good for Trump
But it'd very interesting, if those numbers have changed after his terrific speech

not really. hes doing worse with white voters.

[NOVA Green]

Um, she's doing much better and Trump is doing much worse. You are willfully obtuse

Latino vote share in the last four presidential elections:

2000: Gore 62, Bush 35 (-27)
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 44 (-9)
2008: Obama 67, McCain 31 (-36)
2012: Obama 71, Romney 27 (-44)

2016: Clinton 70, Trump 19 (-51)

Latino Decisions is the go-to poll with Latino voters because they do deep-dive polling in both languages, unlike the national polls who only take subsamples of 125 Latino voters

Quoted for Truth...

Personally, I believe that Clinton would be performing even stronger against Trump if she wasn't associated with several extremely unpopular decisions taken under Obama, that allowed spouses of American Citizens to be deported for minor traffic offenses, and similar "crimes".

It is not just Mexican's outside of legal paperwork status that are moving back to Mexico, but also *American Citizens* of Mexican heritage whose spouse was deported under current Federal policies.

[dspNY]

Um, she's doing much better and Trump is doing much worse. You are willfully obtuse

Latino vote share in the last four presidential elections:

2000: Gore 62, Bush 35 (-27)
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 44 (-9)
2008: Obama 67, McCain 31 (-36)
2012: Obama 71, Romney 27 (-44)

2016: Clinton 70, Trump 19 (-51)

Latino Decisions is the go-to poll with Latino voters because they do deep-dive polling in both languages, unlike the national polls who only take subsamples of 125 Latino voters

Quoted for Truth...

Personally, I believe that Clinton would be performing even stronger against Trump if she wasn't associated with several extremely unpopular decisions taken under Obama, that allowed spouses of American Citizens to be deported for minor traffic offenses, and similar "crimes".

It is not just Mexican's outside of legal paperwork status that are moving back to Mexico, but also *American Citizens* of Mexican heritage whose spouse was deported under current Federal policies.

All true. This is an example I found from 2012 from regular polls on their Latino subsamples:

Monmouth final poll: Obama 61, Romney 32 among Latinos (all voters: 48-48 tie)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

As I said, it is women, that makes it hard for Trump. He's probably doing much better among Hispanics men than Romney. How does it sound?

Please don't act like you are the arbiter of world knowledge outside Atlas. As the article said, he was doing even worse in previous polls, so with that in mind and knowing what we know about his rhetoric and policy positions, it is in fact surprising that he is holding higher margins right now.

What a logic. You can't just extrapolate it like this.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You are evil!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

[Trapsy]

Um, she's doing much better and Trump is doing much worse. You are willfully obtuse

Latino vote share in the last four presidential elections:

2000: Gore 62, Bush 35 (-27)
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 44 (-9)
2008: Obama 67, McCain 31 (-36)
2012: Obama 71, Romney 27 (-44)

2016: Clinton 70, Trump 19 (-51)

Latino Decisions is the go-to poll with Latino voters because they do deep-dive polling in both languages, unlike the national polls who only take subsamples of 125 Latino voters

Quoted for Truth...

Personally, I believe that Clinton would be performing even stronger against Trump if she wasn't associated with several extremely unpopular decisions taken under Obama, that allowed spouses of American Citizens to be deported for minor traffic offenses, and similar "crimes".

It is not just Mexican's outside of legal paperwork status that are moving back to Mexico, but also *American Citizens* of Mexican heritage whose spouse was deported under current Federal policies.

Obama has really been cold to this immigration issue for some reason. I wonder if it has to do with his ability to govern and not be some activist. despite that I think she will still outperform Obama with latinos.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Um, she's doing much better and Trump is doing much worse. You are willfully obtuse

Latino vote share in the last four presidential elections:

2000: Gore 62, Bush 35 (-27)
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 44 (-9)
2008: Obama 67, McCain 31 (-36)
2012: Obama 71, Romney 27 (-44)

2016: Clinton 70, Trump 19 (-51)

Latino Decisions is the go-to poll with Latino voters because they do deep-dive polling in both languages, unlike the national polls who only take subsamples of 125 Latino voters

From the final 2012 poll from Latino Decisions:
Obama 75, Romney 23 (-52).
You can not just compare polls that have bias with the election's outcome.

[Sbane]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......

[Famous Mortimer]

Um, she's doing much better and Trump is doing much worse. You are willfully obtuse

Latino vote share in the last four presidential elections:

2000: Gore 62, Bush 35 (-27)
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 44 (-9)
2008: Obama 67, McCain 31 (-36)
2012: Obama 71, Romney 27 (-44)

2016: Clinton 70, Trump 19 (-51)

Latino Decisions is the go-to poll with Latino voters because they do deep-dive polling in both languages, unlike the national polls who only take subsamples of 125 Latino voters

Quoted for Truth...

Personally, I believe that Clinton would be performing even stronger against Trump if she wasn't associated with several extremely unpopular decisions taken under Obama, that allowed spouses of American Citizens to be deported for minor traffic offenses, and similar "crimes".

It is not just Mexican's outside of legal paperwork status that are moving back to Mexico, but also *American Citizens* of Mexican heritage whose spouse was deported under current Federal policies.

Obama has really been cold to this immigration issue for some reason. I wonder if it has to do with his ability to govern and not be some activist. despite that I think she will still outperform Obama with latinos.

I would like to think it's because he understands the economic problems caused by open borders. I suspect it's just him trying to be moderate though.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......

Haha. No, your opinion is not cold, and actually is not a fact.
What we have is polls. And you, trying to unskew them.

[Sbane]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......

Haha. No, your opinion is not cold, and actually is not a fact.
What we have is polls. And you, trying to unskew them.

I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?

I don't know. Just link to those facts/polls. That's who we do in Sweden.
I always do so, when I talk about numbers.