Let's talk about the white vote
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  Let's talk about the white vote
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Author Topic: Let's talk about the white vote  (Read 591 times)
Sbane
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« on: September 02, 2016, 05:35:10 PM »

One of the caveats about analyzing numbers from a subsample of a poll is the high margin of error. The white vote, with it being about 70-72% of the sample, is a demographic that is going to be least affected by this. We can be reasonably sure the pollsters are getting a reasonable view of the white vote, even if they are missing by 10-15 points among smaller samples like Hispanics, Blacks, angry NH women under the age of 35 etc. The polls are consistently showing that Clinton is only losing the white vote by about 10-15 points. So then why are the polls so close? If there is a 5-10 point swing towards Clinton from Obama 2012 among the white vote, shouldn't she be leading by about 10 points right now? What exactly is going on?
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LLR
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2016, 05:40:00 PM »

Maybe polls are just wrong again/underestimating Hispanic support/not polling non-college-educateds
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Sbane
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2016, 06:40:36 PM »

And if you would like to look at the numbers and what I am talking about, here you go:

1)http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/POSTING_Tables_Sep2016_Horserace_Registered_And-_Likely-Voters.pdf
IBD poll where Clinton leads by 1 but only loses white vote by 14 points.

2) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-aug-31-2016/
Fox Poll where Clinton leads by just 6 while only losing the white vote by 11 points. That would be 2 points better than Obama 2008.

3) http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1,SC_RACE:1/dates/20160801-20160901/type/week
Latest Reuters poll which is tied but Trump only up by 11 among whites.

4)https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d1qd4msxfd/econTabReport.pdf
Yougov poll where Clinton leads by 5 but only down 13 points among whites.

5) http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_83016.pdf
PPP poll where Clinton is up 5 and down 15 among whites

6) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/01/suffolk-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-fear/89577824/
In this USA today poll Trump is only up by 8 points among whites but Clinton only leads him by 7.

7) http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
Monmouth poll where again Trump is only up 8 points up among whites while only losing by 7 points.

For reference, Obama lost the white vote by 13 points in 2008 and 20 points in 2012 according to exit polls.
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Sbane
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2016, 06:53:51 PM »

Actually many are showing Trump doing better among non-whites than Romney. We shall see if that turns out to be true or not.
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2016, 08:27:16 PM »

Actually many are showing Trump doing better among non-whites than Romney. We shall see if that turns out to be true or not.

Trump does better among the poorly educated than Romney. That trumps race/ethnicity.

That is why Trump has a better standing among the minorities than Romney. Even if the polls don't show this now, it will become more apparent as we get nearer to Election Day.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2016, 08:42:12 PM »

Actually many are showing Trump doing better among non-whites than Romney. We shall see if that turns out to be true or not.

Trump does better among the poorly educated than Romney. That trumps race/ethnicity.

That is why Trump has a better standing among the minorities than Romney. Even if the polls don't show this now, it will become more apparent as we get nearer to Election Day.


Trump at 2% with African-Americans in most major poll crosstabs and <20% in Latino Decisions poll refutes this
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2016, 08:55:12 PM »

Actually many are showing Trump doing better among non-whites than Romney. We shall see if that turns out to be true or not.
I feel like you are implying that polls are wrong, huh?
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2016, 08:58:46 PM »

The polls are consistently showing that Clinton is only losing the white vote by about 10-15 points. So then why are the polls so close? If there is a 5-10 point swing towards Clinton from Obama 2012 among the white vote, shouldn't she be leading by about 10 points right now? What exactly is going on?

Obama lost the white vote by 20 points and still won by 4 nationally 2012. You are also forgetting the high numbers of undecided voters.

Hillary in most polls seems to be getting at least 75% of the combined minority vote (in 2012, Obama won non-whites 80% - 19%) with Trump getting less than 10%, the remainder are undecided. Most polls that I've seen show Trump only getting in the low-50s support from whites (Romney got 59%) and Hillary in the low-40s (Obama got 39%), with the remainder undecided/voting third party.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2016, 08:59:49 PM »

That is strange.  They must have white turnout going way up in a relative sense?
Turnout should affect LV only Huh

But we saw similar picture in RV polls before the conventions. It is little bit odd...

I will look closely on polls, both on RV and LV, if I am not busy with mocking delusional D hacks.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2016, 09:37:45 PM »

Another analysis from Cohn showed Obama did better with whites than exit polls showed, losing by 16 points. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0

Still Clinton is generally doing better with whites in polls than Obama in this analysis.
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