What will Iowa's PVI be this year?
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Poll
Question: What will Iowa's PVI be this year?
#1
D+5 or more		  
#2
D+4		  
#3
D+3		  
#4
D+2		  
#5
D+1		  
#6
D+0.5 or less		  
#7
R+0.5 or less		  
#8
R+1		  
#9
R+2		  
#10
R+3		  
#11
R+4		  
#12
R+5		  
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Author Topic: What will Iowa's PVI be this year?  (Read 1082 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 04, 2016, 12:52:33 PM »
« edited: September 04, 2016, 02:13:06 PM by Chrome »
In the 2012 presidential election, Iowa's PVI was D+1 (Obama got 51% of the popular vote and 52% in Iowa). However, the 4-way RCP average for Iowa is Trump +1.0. The national 4-way RCP average is Clinton+3.4. What will Iowa's PVI be this year? Could it vote to the right of the country?

EDIT: I should add that the "R+5" option should say "R+5 or more."

EDIT 2: Just so that everyone is aware, this is using the Cook PVI.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2016, 01:05:28 PM »
It will be R+3 or more.  Trump benefits from the overall demographics, a significant evangelical population, and a largely united Republican establishment in Iowa. 

This is a state where the Democrats need to send Barack and Michelle (Bernie as well) to get out the Democratic base.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2016, 01:24:14 PM »
R +4
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2016, 01:26:45 PM »
R+1, maybe 2. I think the whole "Iowa is the next Arkansas!" meme is blown a bit out of proportion. We'll know more in November.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2016, 01:37:14 PM »
Not what the Trump stans (all two of them) and Hillary haters want it to be.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2016, 01:45:43 PM »
R+2 (which actually means 4 points to the right of the nation if you take it off both sides).  I wish it were more clear whether we were using the Cook formula or not.  For example, if the election were 50-50, and Trump won Iowa 52-48, Cook would call Iowa R+2 (since Trump got 2 points more there), but some of y'all would say R+4 (he won by 4 points more there).  Let's always be clear which formula we are using.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2016, 02:05:32 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 04, 2016, 01:45:43 PM
R+2 (which actually means 4 points to the right of the nation if you take it off both sides).  I wish it were more clear whether we were using the Cook formula or not.  For example, if the election were 50-50, and Trump won Iowa 52-48, Cook would call Iowa R+2 (since Trump got 2 points more there), but some of y'all would say R+4 (he won by 4 points more there).  Let's always be clear which formula we are using.

Thank you for raising the point. I have added that we are using the Cook PVI.
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2016, 05:27:36 PM »
R+1
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Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2016, 12:16:45 AM »
R+3
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2016, 02:08:17 AM »
R+1.5 or so. I think Clinton wins by two or three
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2016, 05:40:12 AM »
R+3.  Guessing based upon current polls. No trend is pushing Iowa more D that isn't stronger elsewhere in some other larger states. Of all the states that have gone for a Republican nominee for President no more than once beginning in 1992, Iowa will probably be the weakest win for Hillary Clinton. If a state like Florida or Virginia is going from about R+2 to D+5, then some state has to be going the other way, and Iowa is a candidate for such.

Remember: Iowa elected Senator Joni Ernst in 2014, and Senator Charles Grassley, no moderate, is likely to win re-election handily.   
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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2016, 07:37:10 AM »
I voted +2 but wasn't thinking of the Cook formula so I guess I'd rather say +1.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2016, 10:19:06 AM »
Probably somewhere between R+1 and R+3, so I split the difference and voted R+2.
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2016, 10:22:25 AM »
Wait, are we averaging the result with 2012 like Cook does?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2016, 02:16:15 PM »
I put R+2, but I wasn't thinking Cook, should've put R+1. A scenario where, for example, Clinton wins nationally by 5 and wins Iowa by 2 is about where I think that state is.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2016, 02:41:36 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 04, 2016, 01:26:45 PM
R+1, maybe 2. I think the whole "Iowa is the next Arkansas!" meme is blown a bit out of proportion. We'll know more in November.
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