What will Iowa's PVI be this year? (user search)
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  What will Iowa's PVI be this year? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What will Iowa's PVI be this year?
#1
D+5 or more		  
#2
D+4		  
#3
D+3		  
#4
D+2		  
#5
D+1		  
#6
D+0.5 or less		  
#7
R+0.5 or less		  
#8
R+1		  
#9
R+2		  
#10
R+3		  
#11
R+4		  
#12
R+5		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: What will Iowa's PVI be this year?  (Read 1081 times)
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,276
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
« on: September 04, 2016, 12:52:33 PM »
« edited: September 04, 2016, 02:13:06 PM by Chrome »
In the 2012 presidential election, Iowa's PVI was D+1 (Obama got 51% of the popular vote and 52% in Iowa). However, the 4-way RCP average for Iowa is Trump +1.0. The national 4-way RCP average is Clinton+3.4. What will Iowa's PVI be this year? Could it vote to the right of the country?

EDIT: I should add that the "R+5" option should say "R+5 or more."

EDIT 2: Just so that everyone is aware, this is using the Cook PVI.
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,276
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -5.39

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2016, 02:05:32 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 04, 2016, 01:45:43 PM
R+2 (which actually means 4 points to the right of the nation if you take it off both sides).  I wish it were more clear whether we were using the Cook formula or not.  For example, if the election were 50-50, and Trump won Iowa 52-48, Cook would call Iowa R+2 (since Trump got 2 points more there), but some of y'all would say R+4 (he won by 4 points more there).  Let's always be clear which formula we are using.

Thank you for raising the point. I have added that we are using the Cook PVI.
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