Who will win these Senate races? - September 2016

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I've included all of the competitive races as well as a few (CO, GA, IA, etc.) that strongly lean towards one party but could get competitive.

Right now, I'm going to go bold and say these will be the results:

D Victories - CA, CO, FL, IL, IN, NV, NH, NC, PA, WI

R Victories - AZ, GA, IA, LA, MO, OH

That would result in a 53-47 Democratic majority.

[Heisenberg]

Gonna be bold as well:

D Victories - CA (Harris), CO, IL, NH, WI

R Victories - AZ, FL, GA, IA, LA (Kennedy), MO, OH, PA, NV (barely)

North Carolina? Indiana?
I agree with much of that. I prefer Boustany but Kennedy will likely win. Wisconsin is not lost yet, it is tightening, but Feingold has about a 60% chance right now.

[Gass3268]

I agree 100% with darthebearnc.

[heatcharger]

I agree 100% with darthebearnc.

[windjammer]

I agree 100% with darthebearnc.

This + one seat somewhere we don't know yet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll just note pickups:

DEM Pickups: IL, WI, IN (Harris wins CA)
GOP Pickups: NV (Kennedy wins LA)

52-48 GOP

[Xing]

My guess is that Democrats pick up IL, IN, NH, PA, and WI. Harris and Kennedy will win. While IN and PA aren't a foregone conclusion, neither are AZ, FL, or NC.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

My guess is that Democrats pick up IL, IN, NH, PA, and WI. Harris and Kennedy will win. While IN and PA aren't a foregone conclusion, neither are AZ, FL, or NC.

This exactly.

[Kingpoleon]

Democratic: CA(Kamala Harris), CO, FL, IL, IN, MO, NC, NH, PA, WI
Republican: AZ, GA, IA, LA(John N. Kennedy), NV

I accidentally clicked Glenn for Colorado.

Coattails will carry Hassan, McGinty, Murphy, and Ross to victory. Heck is the one of these I'm least confident about, then Kander. I would be unconfident about Illinois and Arizona, but neither of the ones not favored will get any funding, unfortunately.

[Xing]

My guess is that Democrats pick up IL, IN, NH, PA, and WI. Harris and Kennedy will win. While IN and PA aren't a foregone conclusion, neither are AZ, FL, or NC.

So you've finally realized that NH isn't a Tossup. Good, now there's three of us!

I moved NH to Lean D weeks ago...

[Figueira]

I agree 100% with darthebearnc.

This + one seat somewhere we don't know yet.

[morgieb]

Have Dems picking up (in decending degree of confidence) Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina.

Picking North Carolina over Florida is bold, but I have a feeling. Might change in coming weeks though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IN, WI, IL, Pa, NH and FL Dems should win 52-48 and small chances in NC, AZ and OH at the very least.


North Carolina and IN do look like a bellweather, though

[mencken]

Arizona: McCain by an underwhelming margin. Some spiteful Ward undervotes (counteracted by Johnson-McCain votes), but generally enough Trump-McCain straight ticket voters to win. McCain 53 - Kirkpatrick 46 GOP HOLD

California: Massive GOP undervoting gives Harris a repeat of her primary win. Harris 67 - Sanchez 33 BLANDIAN GAIN

Colorado: Glenn does as well as one would expect Tancredo/Maes to do in a presidential year. Bennet 51 - Glenn 44 DEM HOLD

Florida: Rubio gets nearly all of Trump's votes plus some racist votes from the Hispanic community. Rubio 53 - Murphy 46 GOP HOLD

Georgia: Nothing to see here. Isakson 53 - Barksdale 44 GOP HOLD

Illinois: Duckworth's incompetence may exceed Kirk's, but that is not enough in an urban Democratic state. Duckworth 50 - Kirk 48 DEM GAIN

Indiana: Bayh's faux-conservative act and spiteful Stutzman undervotes are sufficient for re-election. Bayh 51 - Young 44 CONSERVADEM GAIN

Iowa: Nothing to see here, especially when Trump probably helps Grassley. Grassley 55 - Judge 44 GOP HOLD

Louisiana: Kennedy and Campbell make the runoff, following which Kennedy wins the seat. Kennedy 32 - Campbell 22 - Fayard 15 -> Kennedy 58 - Campbell 42 GOP HOLD

Missouri: See Iowa. Blunt 54 - Kander 42 GOP HOLD

Nevada: Close but Heck pulls it off. Heck 50 - Cortez-Masto 48 GOP GAIN

New Hampshire: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Hassan 50 - Ayotte 48 DEM GAIN (50-48 seems to be the magic number)

North Carolina: Burr 52 - Ross 46 GOP HOLD

Ohio: Portman 54 - Strickland 45 GOP HOLD

Pennsylvania: Toomey 50 - McGinty 48 GOP HOLD

Wisconsin: Feingold 50 - Johnson 48 DEM GAIN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, MO & Iowa are off the table, but the others are in play.

[DavidB.]

Arizona: McCain (R hold)
California: Harris (D hold)
Colorado: Bennet (D hold)
Florida: Murphy (D gain)
Georgia: Isakson (R hold)
Illinois: Duckworth (D gain)
Indiana: Bayh (D gain, but could easily remain R too)
Iowa: Grassley (R hold)
Louisiana: no idea, but R hold
Missouri: Blunt (R hold)
Nevada: Cortez-Masto (D hold)
New Hampshire: Hassan (D gain)
North Carolina: Burr (R hold, but could easily go D too)
Ohio: Portman (R hold)
Pennsylvania: McGinty (D gain)
Wisconsin: Feingold (D gain)

[Higgs]

Arizona: McCain (R hold)
California: Harris (D hold)
Colorado: Bennet (D hold)
Florida: Rubio (R hold)
Georgia: Isakson (R hold)
Illinois: Duckworth (D gain)
Indiana: Bayh (D gain)
Iowa: Grassley (R hold)
Louisiana: Kennedy (R hold)
Missouri: Blunt (R hold)
Nevada: Heck (R gain)
New Hampshire: Hassan (D gain)
North Carolina: Burr (R hold)
Ohio: Portman (R hold)
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R Hold)
Wisconsin: Feingold (D gain)


Senate: 51 R 49 D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan D+1
Murphy upset D+1
McGinty D+1
Bayh D+1
Feingold D +1
Duckworth D+1.  51-50 Dem controlled senate

[Maxwell]

AZ - McCain
CA - Harris
CO - Bennet
FL - Rubio
GA - Isakson
IL - Duckworth (D+1)
IN - Bayh (D+1)
IA - Grassley
LA - Kennedy
MO - Blunt
NV - Masto
NH - Hassan (D+1)
NC - Burr
OH - Portman
PA - McGinty (D+1)
WI - Feingold (D+1)

51 D - 49 R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

272 blue wall produces this outcome without VA, OH or FL in prep race

[ElectionsGuy]

I agree with the majority position for all.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Arizona: McCain, but very close; may well go to a recount. (Tossup)
California: Harris
Colorado: Bennet.  If a stronger Republican were running, this race could have been close. (Lean D)
Florida: Rubio (Tossup)
Illinois: Kirk; he's a moderate Republican who doesn't frighten suburbanites and hasn't embraced Trump.  Polls currently show him in striking distance, while Duckworth is gaffe-prone and facing a lawsuit. But if it were today, he would lose. (Tossup)
Indiana: Young.  Bayh is fool's gold for Democrats, although he might win if it were today. (Tossup)
Iowa: Grassley, but will be closer than his previous campaigns because of Merrick Garland. (Lean R)
Louisiana: Kennedy (Lean R)
Missouri: Blunt, but Kander is not to be underestimated. (Tossup)
Nevada: Heck (Tossup)
New Hampshire: Ayotte, but like Arizona, will be close and could easily go to a recount. (Tossup)
North Carolina: Burr
Ohio: Portman, for much the same reasons as Kirk, sans lawsuit. (Tossup)
Pennsylvania: Toomey, but McGinty if it the election were today. (Tossup)
Wisconsin: Feingold.  By far, the most likely Senate seat to change hands. Still, I rate it a Tossup because Johnson has enough time to come back with a strong campaign. (Tossup)

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Based on the first 66 votes, it looks like Atlas's ratings from most likely Democratic to most likely Republican are as follows:

California - Harris 98% (Democratic 100% Overall)
Colorado - Bennet 97%
Illinois - Duckworth 97%
Wisconsin - Feingold 97%
New Hampshire - Hassan 94%
Nevada - Cortez-Masto 85%
Indiana - Bayh 77%
Pennsylvania - McGinty 75%
North Carolina - Burr 52%
Florida - Rubio 64%
Arizona - McCain 82%
Missouri - Blunt 84%
Louisiana - Kennedy 74% (Republican 92% Overall)
Ohio - Portman 97%
Iowa - Grassley 98%
Georgia - Isakson 100%

This prediction would result in a 51-49 Democratic controlled Senate. The closest race is by far North Carolina, which is the only one where the winner has a <60% chance.

[ShadowRocket]

In regards to only the competitive races, I think the Dems remain on track to pick up IL, WI, IN, NH, and PA, while holing NV and NC being a surprise victory. The GOP hold OH, FL, MO, and AZ.  The result is a 52-48 Democratic majority.

[Figueira]

Of course, just because 94% of people think Hassan will win doesn't mean that most people here think Hassan has a 94% chance of winning.