Vosem's 2018 Senate Elections Analysis

[Vosem]

Slightly more than four years ago, on August 25, 2012, I decided to write out some very, very early projections for the 2014 Senate races. They were not the best forecasts – I rated New Hampshire and Oregon () as Pure Tossup, but gave Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and West Virginia various hues of Democratic wins. (If you are interested, you can stroll through memory lane here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=158176.0 ). Gripped by ennui again four years later, I’ve decided to try my luck at writing out 2018 Senate projections, but keeping in mind my past record for this sort of thing, you should take these with a salt mine or two.

Four years ago I hedged a lot of the projections, giving different estimates based on either an Obama reelection or a Romney presidency; this time I have gone with the (not particularly) bold decision of just assuming Hillary wins. If Trump wins, these are all garbage.

Arizona: Jeff Flake is not particularly old and is very likely to seek reelection; however, after having been one of the most vocal #NeverTrump Senators in a fairly Trump-favorable state, he is likely to receive a primary challenge. The Republican statewide bench in Arizona is weirdly desultory for such a Republican-dominated state; radio host Laura Ingraham (R-NY) has publicly considered challenging Flake, for instance, and 2016 primary loser Kelli Ward might like to go for it again. Amusingly enough, Sarah Palin actually lives here now, which won’t happen but is fun to think about. Either way, I rather doubt Flake will actually lose. The general election shouldn’t be too much of an issue, since strong Democrats like 2012 candidate Richard Carmona and Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema are likely to wait for more favorable circumstances than a Hillary midterm, though I guess if a total crazy wins the primary and Democrats have a non-crazy candidate some chance exists here. Likely Republican.

California: There’s a lot of speculation about incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein (who will be 85 in 2018, and is the oldest incumbent Senator) retiring, but she seems very much like a leaves-in-the-hearse Inouye/Byrd type of Senator. If she does retire, there is a bewildering number of Democrats who have been eyeing a Senate seat for some time who were scared off in 2016 by Kamala Harris; some chance of an R v. R one-on-one exists in an open seat. Since I don’t think an open seat is too likely, I’ll go with a rating of Safe Democratic.

Connecticut: Unfortunately, Murphy is young, popular, and not going anywhere (maybe a presidential primary in the 2020s/30s, I suppose). I could see some errant close polling here if the climate is bad enough for Democrats, but the seat is not going to actually flip. Safe Democratic.

Delaware: I remember being very confident that Carper would retire in 2012, and being very surprised when he ultimately didn’t. Don’t remember why. He’ll be 71 in 2018, so he could conceivably do many more terms if he wants, or he could leave, in which case there would be a very competitive primary in this very Democratic state for his Senate seat (or Jack Markell might just scare off opposition). Either way, Safe Democratic.

Florida: Bill Nelson will be 76 in 2018, so retirement is always a possibility but he remains very active and seems to have telegraphed that he will continue in office. Democrats will be somewhat screwed if he does choose to retire, since this is Florida and there is no Democratic bench; Murphy will presumably either hold the other seat or be discredited after a totally embarrassing loss; Grayson will still be anathema, and Graham is likely running for Governor; maybe they’ll run Crist again, or give Pam Keith a go at it. The Republican side has an embarrassment of possibilities, but they’re mostly embarrassing; Rick Scott has publicly signaled interest, though at 63 he’d be rather old for a freshman Senator (Jeb Bush is younger, so, maybe, who knows). Pam Bondi may run as the Trumpist candidate, though she might defer to Scott. Various insane statewide officeholders, Congressmen, ex-Congressmen, and Florida Men are also possible candidates. Ultimately, this is a very likely Republican pickup in the event of Nelson retiring, but Nelson would probably be Leans-level favored if he runs again, as is likely. Balance those out and I get Tossup/Tilts Democratic.

Hawaii: Hirono will be 71 in 2018; considering Hawaii loves for their Senators to start off as young as possible to build up seniority, I think there is a decent chance Hirono steps aside for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, an Iraq veteran who is less than half Hirono’s age, a prominent Wulfric-style socialist, and who will still be in the Senate long after all of our fat asses have died (and who also seems to be a possible future presidential primary contender). Alternatively, Hirono could just run for reelection; either way, this race is Safe Democratic.

Indiana: Donnelly won a lucky victory in 2012 after a candidate who would’ve won without breaking a sweat lost the primary and then the candidate who won managed to do everything wrong. He is likely doomed in a Hillary midterm, but the magic of Republican primaries may help him once again, since there is a large array of state legislators, statewide officials, and incumbent Congressmen and ex-Congressmen in Indiana all looking for a promotion. Donnelly’s favorite opponent would probably be ex-Congressman Marlin Stutzman, a very hard right candidate who came within single digits of receiving the nomination in 2010 before being blown out of the water in 2016. In all honesty, though, I think even Stutzman beats Donnelly in a Hillary midterm. Other possibilities include future ex-Congressman Todd Young, Rep. Susan Brooks, state House Speaker Brian Bosma, and future former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard. Leans Republican.

Maine: Angus King will be 74 in 2018, but seems to still be very high-energy and strikes me as not likely to retire. Incumbent Republican Governor and all-around terrible person Paul LePage (who will be 71, by the way) seems to have said very strongly that he will run against King; which could in fact go through, since King is probably unassailable anyway and Republicans will need Overton Window candidates (it would also be a convenient way to discredit LePage and keep him from a 2020 presidential run; I bet Republicans are wishing right now they’d gotten Trump to be their sacrificial lamb in the 2014 NY gubernatorial election, as he considered doing). A totally meaningless Democratic candidate may run as well; the Democrat got 13% here in 2012, and with strategic voting to stop LePage and President Clinton the candidate may well fall to single-digits. Some chance of King retiring does exist; in that case this probably goes straight to Three-way Tossup, since some sort of successor independent, or several, would also be likely to run and should not be ruled out of serious contention. I doubt King retires (it’s Safe if he doesn’t), but some chance exists, so I’ll mark this at Likely Independent/Democratic.

Maryland: Incumbent Democrat Cardin will be 75 on Election Day; it’s difficult for me to judge whether he’s a lifer type or not. If he retires, there will be a free-for-all for this seat, with ex-Congresswoman Donna Edwards and incumbents John Delaney or John Sarbanes, and Delegate Heather Mizeur, being likely possibilities. Republican chances here are very slim, but watch out for Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford as a (very, very slim) possibility, especially in an open seat with a divisive, nasty primary. Still this rounds up to Safe Democratic.

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren will be 69 in 2018 and has never seemed enamored by the Senate, so while I don’t think a retirement is likely one is certainly possible; there is a bottomless Democratic bench here, and I won’t even speculate about the possibilities. Republicans have seriously competed in two special Senate elections here (winning in 2010 and coming decently close with a total nobody candidate in 2013), but competing in the context of a national election, even a midterm, without an incumbent here is probably not possible. Former baseball player and total nutjob/Trumpista Curt Schilling has publicly mulled a challenge to Warren; like LePage, he would be an Overton Window candidate. Safe Democratic.

Michigan: Stabenow will be 68, and has apparently been jockeying for a Secretary of Agriculture appointment behind the scenes; this strikes me as very doubtful, considering Republican Rick Snyder would then get to appoint a successor. If she retires, the Democratic bench here is not particularly deep, in spite of the deceptively blue nature of the state presidentially; Republicans control all statewide positions and have large majorities in the congressional delegation and both houses of the legislature. Republicans recruited a seemingly top-tier candidate who ended up utterly bombing in 2014, even as places like Minnesota, New Mexico, and Illinois were closer, so it’s doubtful this seat would get too much play in 2018. Still, it should be kept at the edge of the playing field. Likely Democratic.

Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar seems totally safe, is clearly not a retirement possibility (indeed, she met with Iowa and New Hampshire delegations during the 2016 DNC, so here’s another future presidential candidate…), and is inexplicably beloved by Minnesotans. The only Republican who could come close here is Congressman Erik Paulsen, who is much likelier to run for Governor or just stay in his House seat. Safe Democratic.

Mississippi: Roger Wicker will be 67 in 2018, so he is a retirement possibility; Mississippi obviously has a very deep bench of Republican successor possibilities and Democrats have absolutely no shot here. Safe Republican.

Missouri: Claire McCaskill was successfully overwhelmingly reelected here in 2012 by rating the Republican primary, a tactic which worked once but has left her very unpopular; she has announced that she is seeking reelection, but there is a chance she takes off to become Hillary’s Attorney General (though Tom Perez seems to have the inside track for that job). If she leaves, Jason Kander is a likely replacement, and would in fact probably be a much stronger candidate than McCaskill. Either way, Republicans seem to have already coalesced behind the scenes around Congresswoman Ann Wagner, who is likelier to win a double-digit win – against McCaskill or Kander – than a single-digit one. Likely Republican.

[Vosem]

Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester has eked out two very narrow victories (against top-tier Republican candidates, to be fair) in strong Democratic years; the Hillary midterm of 2018 seems unlikely to offer him that protection, and Montana’s other Senate seat, held by Democrats since 1912, fell to Republican Steve Daines in 2014. Tester’s likeliest opponent is incumbent Congressman Ryan Zinke, though Attorney General Tim Fox is also a possibility. Either way, while it’s easy to see Tester come very close while running a competent campaign, a la Mark Begich, it’s hard to see him actually win. Leans Republican.

Nebraska: Deb Fischer will be 67 in 2018, so retirement is a possibility, though it seems doubtful after just a single term and continued involvement in the statewide Republican Party (a relative of hers spearheaded a condemnation of Ben Sasse, bleh!). Either way, two successive open seats here have taught us that Nebraska Republicans love to pick totally obscure, heretofore unknown candidates when selecting Senate nominees, so I won’t speculate about who is a possible successor. Either way, this seat is Safe Republican.

Nevada: Dean Heller will be the only Republican running for reelection in 2018 in an Obama state that we currently know of (if Virginia flips, then I guess he may not be). Heller is young and a shrewd politico, and the massive Republican statewide landslide here in 2014 has totally savaged the Democratic bench here. Incumbent Congresswoman Dina Titus is known to have statewide ambitions, and she may be the strongest Democratic possibility to defeat Heller. I rather doubt he’ll go down in a Hillary midterm, though if Democrats have one serious 2018 offensive opportunity, this is it. Leans Republican.

New Jersey: Menendez has been under a significant ethical cloud basically ever since he entered office, but New Jersey is sufficiently Democratic (and, if something does happen, the state party can replace him as a candidate with such ease) that a Republican gain here is very unlikely, especially considering the unpopularity of the Christie administration (though that should be fading down memory lane by 2018). The only serious candidate here who could threaten Menendez is state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., who Menendez only narrowly defeated in the wave year of 2006. Without Kean, this is probably safe for the Democrats; with him, it’s a very significant pickup opportunity. Likely Democratic.

New Mexico: Martin Heinrich is among the youngest incumbent Democrats, seems very popular and is known as a rising star; he defeated ex-Congresswoman Heather Wilson, one of the strongest New Mexico Republicans, in 2012. The only person who could really give him a challenge here is current Governor Susana Martinez, but that would be a very risky proposition for her and she’s expressed a great reluctance to travel to Washington many times in any case. Safe Democratic.

New York: Gillibrand is safe (and also a future presidential primary contester, like as not). Safe Democratic.

North Dakota: Incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has a very strong personal brand, but is also by far the Democrat in the most Republican state running for reelection; in her exemplary 2012 campaign, she won by just 0.9%, and the climate is likely to be far worse in 2018. On the other hand, internecine Republican warfare here will help; the immediately obvious opponent, Representative Kevin Cramer, has numerous enemies within the Republican Party (and this isn’t likely to be a place where Trumpism plays too well) and will not have an un-occluded run for this seat. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Drew Wrigley is also thought to be eyeing this seat, though he publicly apologized for a sex scandal in 2015. The vaguely Paulist state Representative Rick Becker, a self-described libertarian who was also a significant Cruz surrogate, has already signified he will run; he may be able to acquire national attention. A very crowded Republican primary may produce a pretty weird result; but ultimately North Dakota is so Republican that it’s hard to give Heitkamp any more credit than Leans Republican.

Ohio: Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown is pretty popular, but Ohio has had a very Republican streak in recent midterms, as the Kasich Governorship has been very popular and the state Democratic party committed a slow suicide. Most prominent Republicans seem drawn to the gubernatorial contest over this, but a primary is likely; state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who was also the 2012 nominee here, is certain to run again. Mandel, an Iraq veteran who will be 41 in 2018 but looks 25 at best, is a favorite of national Republicans but gets along poorly with Kasich (in spite of a lack of obvious ideological disagreements), who runs the Ohio Republican Party and is likely to find someone – most likely Congressman Pat Tiberi – to run against Mandel. Mandel is likely to outraise whoever this person is and also has statewide exposure, so a 2012 rematch here is likely. The result will be determined entirely by national climate – if it is similar to 2010 or 2014, Brown’s personal popularity will not save him; if it is not quite as hard on Senate Democrats, he may yet pull through. Tossup/Tilts Republican.

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Senator Casey is 58, but seems to not be particularly enthused about being a Senator (having not taken his 2012 campaign remotely seriously and severely underperforming polling) and is a retirement possibility. Joe Sestak or Allyson Schwartz, both ex-Congressmen who’ve lost recent statewide primaries, are possible candidates in that case, as is the Sandernista Mayor of Braddock, John Fetterman. The Republican bench here is very deep; if there is a perception that Pat Toomey only lost in 2016 due to the national environment, he may be recruited to run again, and may be able to clear the field. It’s not necessary for Casey to retire for Republicans to be competitive here, but it would probably make the race a pure tossup or so. Leans Democratic.

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse should be absolutely safe in this deep-blue state; there’s been no particular indication that he’s any sort of retirement possibility. Safe Democratic.

Tennessee: This state is safely Republican; Corker is not particularly old at 66, but it’s rumored that he’ll be interested in running for the open gubernatorial position, in which case this will be an open seat. The Republican bench here is very deep, but in the event of an open seat very popular incumbent Governor Bill Haslam would be able to clear the field. Either way, Safe Republican.

Texas: Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz has had a…divisive few years in the Senate to say the least, and some Texas Republicans seem rather upset about it; numerous possibilities have been bandied about as regards a primary challenger. By far the strongest possibility is ex-Governor (and fellow unsuccessful presidential candidate, though Cruz obviously came much closer) Rick Perry, who would run a hybrid establishment/Trumpista campaign and who polling has shown leading the incumbent; such a primary would probably be a contender for most expensive race in the US; I have very little doubt Cruz would win, though I would love to see one of the best debaters in the US up on a stage against one of the very worst. If Perry does not run, polling has shown Cruz leading a generic opponent narrowly and named opponents significantly; very wealthy Congressman Mike McCaul is a possibility, as is very old (but for some reason especially not enamored by Cruz) Congressman John Carter; Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson (who was previously a longtime Cruz ally) may also run against Cruz. Cruz would be favored in any of these races, but they would be extremely expensive and likely acquire significant national attention. This is one of the few races where I can easily imagine an Alaska 2010 scenario, with two candidates moving to the general as whoever the Cruz opponent is wages a third-party or write-in campaign for the fall in an attempt to sabotage Cruz. Democrats have talked up HUD Secretary Joaquin Castro as an option here, though since he’s a presidential possibility I think he’s very unlikely to run; 2014 Lt. Gov. candidate Leticia van de Putte is likelier. Some possibility of a vote-split leading to a Democratic win probably does exist, though it’s very, very remote. Rounds up to Safe Republican.

Utah: Incumbent Republican Orrin Hatch, the incumbent since 1976, has signaled that he’ll retire in 2018. He’s still very active and tried to walk back his retirement pledge in 2014; I don’t think it’s a given at all that he retires, though if he doesn’t he may receive a primary challenge over his broken promise. The list of possible Republicans here is endless, including every member of the House delegation, Lt Gov Spencer Cox and Attorney General Sean Reyes; former Governor Jon Huntsman; third-party presidential candidate Evan McMullin; and Heir Force possibilities Aaron Osmond and Josh Romney. Many of those would be looking at a presidential run down the road if they were to be elected. No Democrat can win here, in 2018 at least, though there are signs the state is about to move quickly in a certain direction. Safe Republican.

Vermont: This one is very clear-cut. Incumbent Democrat (or “independent”) Bernie Sanders may run for another term, in which case he is safe; or he may retire, in which case Congressman Peter Welch is overwhelmingly his likeliest replacement. Safe Democratic (or “independent”).

Virginia: Current incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine is likely to vacate this seat in January 2017 as he is sworn into the Vice Presidency. His initial replacement will be chosen by the Democratic Governor, Terry McAuliffe – some chance exists that McAuliffe nominates a placeholder and then runs himself, but this is thought to be doubtful. Possible Democratic appointments include state Attorney General Mark Herring, ex-Congressman Tom Perriello, or future Second Lady of the United States Anne Holton. The number of Republicans considering a run here is very high, with former California Senate nominee and quixotic vice-presidential candidate Carly Fiorina seeming to consider a run, but by far the strongest candidate here would be Congresswoman Barbara Comstock, who has so far been mum about the possibility. An off-year Senate race here would be able to command national attention, especially occurring so close to the Beltway. The race would have to be repeated in 2018; I tend to think Comstock would be fairly safe if she were the incumbent, though if a Democrat were to win in 2017 in the more nationalized 2018 environment they would be vulnerable in a revanche. Pure Tossup.

[Vosem]

Washington: Maria Cantwell will only be 60 years old in 2018 (likely younger than some incoming freshmen), is in a safe state, and has given no indication of any desire to retire. Murray did receive a serious challenge in 2010, but with the playing field including so many redder states, Cantwell is likely to get a pass a la Merkley 2014. Safe Democratic.

West Virginia: Joe Manchin will be 71 in 2018, but has been adamant that he will be seeking reelection. This state has turned increasingly against Democrats in recent years, with both houses of the legislature flipping to Republican control in 2014, and may be the most Republican state in the country in the 2016 presidential election, but has shown a continued willingness to elect Democrats downballot at some levels (see Jim Justice probably being elected Governor even as Trump overwhelmingly carries the state). President Clinton will likely be unpopular here and will weigh Manchin down. The strongest possible Republican candidate here is probably Congressman Evan Jenkins (to underscore the pace of change in this state, Jenkins actually switched from the Democrats in 2013); other possibilities include the other incumbent Representatives (one of whom is from Maryland) and incumbent Attorney General Patrick Morrissey (actually from New Jersey, because West Virginia is a magnet for carpetbaggers). If Manchin does retire, the strongest Democratic possibility is probably former Senator Carte Goodwin, though former Congressman Ken Hechler, who is 104 but has remained very active in statewide politics and remarried in 2013, is also a possibility. Leans Republican.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, the first openly gay (actually lesbian) Senator ever elected, will face reelection in a Wisconsin midterm, which have been very inhospitable to Wisconsin Democrats over the past decade. Establishment Republicans seem to have already coalesced around Congressman Sean Duffy as their choice, though it’s hard to say how much that’s worth; businessman Eric Hovde, who doesn’t even have a Wikipedia article, came out of nowhere to come within two points of upsetting establishment favorite Tommy Thompson in the 2012 primary. Either way, Wisconsin is very polarized and Republicans are a narrow but consistent majority in off-year elections; on the other hand, Baldwin is much more talented of a pol than the typical Wisconsin Democrat. It’s hard to see her prevail in a Hillary midterm, but I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt. Pure Tossup.

Wyoming: Incumbent Republican John Barrasso will be 66, but retirement seems rather unlikely; if he does go, Governor Matt Mead would probably be the frontrunner for a Senate seat, though hyper-ambitious Congresswoman Liz Cheney may end up running as well. Either way, this seat is Safe Republican.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd add 2 things: if Warren retired, Kennedy has publicly signaled interest. He said a couple of months ago that he'd consider running had Warren been picked as Hillary's running mate. In Nevada, Heller might retire to run for governor, in which case Laxalt might run for that seat. Ralston says Laxalt is the strong favorite in any non-Heller primary right now.

[Heisenberg]

I'd add 2 things: if Warren retired, Kennedy has publicly signaled interest. He said a couple of months ago that he'd consider running had Warren been picked as Hillary's running mate. In Nevada, Heller might retire to run for governor, in which case Laxalt might run for that seat. Ralston says Laxalt is the strong favorite in any non-Heller primary right now.

Oh god, please no. I hope Republicans won't have to spend too much money defending NV in 2018. Heller should run for reelection, he'd be favored for sure in a Clinton midterm.

Also, I've read somewhere that McCaskill has told her advisors that she's feeling pretty confident about her 2018 run (which is why she's already announced that she will run for reelection) because she's planning on manipulating the GOP primary again. Surely this won't work again, right? Or is the MO Republican party actually that incompetent?

If Heller had to vacate that seat, then Sandoval should run. But I think former Lt. Gov Brian Krolicki, and Rep. Mark Amodei are both considering a run, so Heller will likely run for reelection. In Missouri, Wagner should be our nominee, but if she's not, the Republicans may end up blowing it. And I agree with North Dakota, a weak candidate like Rick Becker would cost the seat. If there's anywhere Republicans can blow races (other than Louisiana), it's North Dakota.

[Figueira]

As good as ratings can be two years in advance, I guess.

[KingSweden]

Great writeup! Thanks for taking the time to do this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say since things are going so well for Dems in 2016, it's possible that Dems will have a surplus like the GOP has of Senators 52 or 53 with NC, IN and FL falling.  MO, IN and ND are vulnerable in 2018 and Brown is too. But, it is still early

[windjammer]

As someone who likes saying '"blablabla republicans will pick up 8 seats in 2018", I don't like putting ratings on senate seats right now, we have to wait for that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Rubio was the nominee and it was a Clinton narrow victory we would see a 50/50 Senate and GOP takes it back in 2018 with a moderate pickup of 4 seats. But, it isn't and Dems can have a surplus of Senators after 2017, we will have to see.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, the first openly gay (actually lesbian) Senator ever elected, will face reelection in a Wisconsin midterm, which have been very inhospitable to Wisconsin Democrats over the past decade. Establishment Republicans seem to have already coalesced around Congressman Sean Duffy as their choice, though it’s hard to say how much that’s worth; businessman Eric Hovde, who doesn’t even have a Wikipedia article, came out of nowhere to come within two points of upsetting establishment favorite Tommy Thompson in the 2012 primary. Either way, Wisconsin is very polarized and Republicans are a narrow but consistent majority in off-year elections; on the other hand, Baldwin is much more talented of a pol than the typical Wisconsin Democrat. It’s hard to see her prevail in a Hillary midterm, but I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt. Pure Tossup.

Another important point about Wisconsin is Walker's approval numbers are currently in the tank. Until this recent Marquette poll, he had been sitting at around 38% since he ended his campaign. His Presidential campaign and his education cuts really did a number on him. Now it wouldn't shock me if his numbers rebounded, and I actually assume they will, but if things remain the way they are that only helps Baldwin in a midterm year.

[Orser67]

Good write up, though I think you underrate the strength of many of the Democratic incumbents, especially in WV and OH.

[DavidB.]

Great analysis, Vosem!

[Cynthia]

Washington: Maria Cantwell will only be 60 years old in 2018 (likely younger than some incoming freshmen), is in a safe state, and has given no indication of any desire to retire. Murray did receive a serious challenge in 2010, but with the playing field including so many redder states, Cantwell is likely to get a pass a la Merkley 2014. Safe Democratic.

West Virginia: Joe Manchin will be 71 in 2018, but has been adamant that he will be seeking reelection. This state has turned increasingly against Democrats in recent years, with both houses of the legislature flipping to Republican control in 2014, and may be the most Republican state in the country in the 2016 presidential election, but has shown a continued willingness to elect Democrats downballot at some levels (see Jim Justice probably being elected Governor even as Trump overwhelmingly carries the state). President Clinton will likely be unpopular here and will weigh Manchin down. The strongest possible Republican candidate here is probably Congressman Evan Jenkins (to underscore the pace of change in this state, Jenkins actually switched from the Democrats in 2013); other possibilities include the other incumbent Representatives (one of whom is from Maryland) and incumbent Attorney General Patrick Morrissey (actually from New Jersey, because West Virginia is a magnet for carpetbaggers). If Manchin does retire, the strongest Democratic possibility is probably former Senator Carte Goodwin, though former Congressman Ken Hechler, who is 104 but has remained very active in statewide politics and remarried in 2013, is also a possibility. Leans Republican.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, the first openly gay (actually lesbian) Senator ever elected, will face reelection in a Wisconsin midterm, which have been very inhospitable to Wisconsin Democrats over the past decade. Establishment Republicans seem to have already coalesced around Congressman Sean Duffy as their choice, though it’s hard to say how much that’s worth; businessman Eric Hovde, who doesn’t even have a Wikipedia article, came out of nowhere to come within two points of upsetting establishment favorite Tommy Thompson in the 2012 primary. Either way, Wisconsin is very polarized and Republicans are a narrow but consistent majority in off-year elections; on the other hand, Baldwin is much more talented of a pol than the typical Wisconsin Democrat. It’s hard to see her prevail in a Hillary midterm, but I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt. Pure Tossup.

Wyoming: Incumbent Republican John Barrasso will be 66, but retirement seems rather unlikely; if he does go, Governor Matt Mead would probably be the frontrunner for a Senate seat, though hyper-ambitious Congresswoman Liz Cheney may end up running as well. Either way, this seat is Safe Republican.

I'm sure Heckler is a joke right

[BuckeyeNut]

Pretty good on the whole.

But, 1: Hechler -- who is a massive FF -- is currently 102, not 104 and 2: he was recently placed into hospice.