Maps of Johnson vote in each state

[AGA]

Post maps showing the percentage of the vote that Johnson will get in each state. Use whatever key fits.

I believe that Johnson will get about 5% of the popular vote. Here is my map:

>30%=<1%
>50%=1-5%
>70%=5-10%
>90%=>10%

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'll be very surprised if Johnson exceeds 5% in Georgia.  He has practically no visibility here.

[AGA]

I'll be very surprised if Johnson exceeds 5% in Georgia.  He has practically no visibility here.

He did get 1.2% of the vote in Georgia in 2012, which was more than his 0.99% nationally. If he gets 5% nationally, he could get more there.

[amdcpus]

Looks about right. I'm surprised you caught his strength in Indiana, if he gets 5% nationally, he'll probably easily get 10% in Indiana. In 2012, when he got .99% of the vote nationally, he got slightly over 2% of the vote in Indiana.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The base map looks pretty good. I'd bump Johnson up a level in California, Colorado, Wyoming, and Idaho.

[Arbitrage1980]

Johnson 2016 will probably follow a similar pattern as Perot 1992: strongest regions will be New England and Rocky Mountain west while doing poorly in mid-atlantic and the South.  Like Perot, I think Johnson will primarily appeal to disaffected fiscal conservatives and libertarians who usually vote GOP and socially liberal white collar whites who voted for Obama but don't like Hillary.  The South is too socially conservative while mid-atlantic is a democratic stronghold driven by urban politics.

[5280]

So the map looks like an east/west divide. The east is more authoritarian, the west more libertarian.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

So the map looks like an east/west divide. The east is more authoritarian, the west more libertarian.

Less people, less mob rule and groupthink. 

[Trapsy]

This johnson guy has no impact, he needs some serious cash some cash to compete.

[Mr. Morden]

Which states have the highest %age of young people voting in them?  All the polls show Johnson's support skewing heavily young.

Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?

[amdcpus]

Looks about right. I'm surprised you caught his strength in Indiana, if he gets 5% nationally, he'll probably easily get 10% in Indiana. In 2012, when he got .99% of the vote nationally, he got slightly over 2% of the vote in Indiana.

I don't really think we can extrapolate from the small universe of hardcore libertarians who voted Johnson in 2012 to his potentially much larger base of support this year.  In particular, I think he will do better in the Northeast than you are assuming and not as well in places like Missouri and Indiana that are on the whole very amenable to Trump.

I'd be willing to bet Indiana is one of his top 10 best states in the % of vote received in the state. Also,  the Libertarians got 4% in the gubernatorial race that year, which was their 4th best gubernatorial percentage out of all the states that year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?

I went through the polls-only model state-by-state (tedious, but I couldn't find all the data in one place) and here are the current forecasts for Johnson percentage in each state.

1   NM   18.3
2   AK   14.6
3   UT   14.2
4   MT   13.9
5   SD   13.7
6   WY   12.8
7   ND   12.3
8   CO   11.8
9   NE   11.5
10   MN   11.2
11   ME   11.1
12   IN   10.9
13   RI   10.8
14   KS   10.0
15   NH   9.6
16   IA   9.3
16   MO   9.3
16   OK   9.3
16   VA   9.3
20   WV   9.2
21   WA   9.1
22   DE   8.8
23   AZ   8.7
23   AR   8.7
23   OR   8.7
23   WI   8.7
27   OH   8.6
27   VT   8.6
29   MA   8.1
30   CT   8.0
30   IL   8.0
30   NV   8.0
33   GA   7.9
33   TX   7.9
35   MI   7.7
36   KY   7.6
36   PA   7.6
38   NC   7.5
39   NY   7.0
40   MD   6.9
41   FL   6.8
41   LA   6.8
43   SC   6.6
44   ID   6.5
44   NJ   6.5
44   TN   6.5
47   HI   6.0
48   AL   5.9
48   DC   5.9
50   CA   5.5
51   MS   3.8

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?

I went through the polls-only model state-by-state (tedious, but I couldn't find all the data in one place) and here are the current forecasts for Johnson percentage in each state.

[snip]

This generates the following map:

>90: 15%+
>70: 10%-14.9%
>50: 5%-9.9%
>30: <5%

[eric82oslo]

Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?

I went through the polls-only model state-by-state (tedious, but I couldn't find all the data in one place) and here are the current forecasts for Johnson percentage in each state.

1   NM   18.3
2   AK   14.6
3   UT   14.2
4   MT   13.9
5   SD   13.7
6   WY   12.8
7   ND   12.3
8   CO   11.8
9   NE   11.5

44   ID   6.5
44   NJ   6.5
44   TN   6.5
47   HI   6.0
48   AL   5.9
48   DC   5.9
50   CA   5.5
51   MS   3.8

The Idaho number is wrong, especially now after Survey Monkey found 19% of their Idaho voters supporting Johnson. 538 has Idaho's polling average for Johnson to be 14.5% and their projected vote share at 12.8%, which would put Idaho as shared 6th on the list with Wyoming, instead of the 44th place it finds itself on above.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?

I went through the polls-only model state-by-state (tedious, but I couldn't find all the data in one place) and here are the current forecasts for Johnson percentage in each state.

1   NM   18.3
2   AK   14.6
3   UT   14.2
4   MT   13.9
5   SD   13.7
6   WY   12.8
7   ND   12.3
8   CO   11.8
9   NE   11.5

44   ID   6.5
44   NJ   6.5
44   TN   6.5
47   HI   6.0
48   AL   5.9
48   DC   5.9
50   CA   5.5
51   MS   3.8

The Idaho number is wrong, especially now after Survey Monkey found 19% of their Idaho voters supporting Johnson. 538 has Idaho's polling average for Johnson to be 14.5% and their projected vote share at 12.8%, which would put Idaho as shared 6th on the list with Wyoming, instead of the 44th place it finds itself on above.

Sigh.  The model has updated since I pulled the numbers, and the addition of that poll did jump it all the way to 12.8%!  It's quite a dramatic spike in the graph at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/idaho/. 

Well, that was a snapshot of the model, as of about 7pm EDT on September 6, 2016.  If anyone wants to go through the exercise and update all the numbers, feel free.

[amdcpus]

Also, what does the 538 model say about Johnson's strongest and weakest states?

I went through the polls-only model state-by-state (tedious, but I couldn't find all the data in one place) and here are the current forecasts for Johnson percentage in each state.

1   NM   18.3
2   AK   14.6
3   UT   14.2
4   MT   13.9
5   SD   13.7
6   WY   12.8
7   ND   12.3
8   CO   11.8
9   NE   11.5

44   ID   6.5
44   NJ   6.5
44   TN   6.5
47   HI   6.0
48   AL   5.9
48   DC   5.9
50   CA   5.5
51   MS   3.8

The Idaho number is wrong, especially now after Survey Monkey found 19% of their Idaho voters supporting Johnson. 538 has Idaho's polling average for Johnson to be 14.5% and their projected vote share at 12.8%, which would put Idaho as shared 6th on the list with Wyoming, instead of the 44th place it finds itself on above.

Sigh.  The model has updated since I pulled the numbers, and the addition of that poll did jump it all the way to 12.8%!  It's quite a dramatic spike in the graph at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/idaho/. 

Well, that was a snapshot of the model, as of about 7pm EDT on September 6, 2016.  If anyone wants to go through the exercise and update all the numbers, feel free.

Yep he had a big jump in Idaho numbers today as WaPo/SurveyMonkey released today which had him at 19% and a Dan Jones Idaho poll released today that him at 13%, an increase of 8% from their poll a month previous.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Looks about right. I'm surprised you caught his strength in Indiana, if he gets 5% nationally, he'll probably easily get 10% in Indiana. In 2012, when he got .99% of the vote nationally, he got slightly over 2% of the vote in Indiana.

I don't really think we can extrapolate from the small universe of hardcore libertarians who voted Johnson in 2012 to his potentially much larger base of support this year.  In particular, I think he will do better in the Northeast than you are assuming and not as well in places like Missouri and Indiana that are on the whole very amenable to Trump.

I'd be willing to bet Indiana is one of his top 10 best states in the % of vote received in the state. Also,  the Libertarians got 4% in the gubernatorial race that year, which was their 4th best gubernatorial percentage out of all the states that year.

Was that when they had a quasi-celebrity Survivor castaway as their nominee?  That could explain some of that.

[amdcpus]

Looks about right. I'm surprised you caught his strength in Indiana, if he gets 5% nationally, he'll probably easily get 10% in Indiana. In 2012, when he got .99% of the vote nationally, he got slightly over 2% of the vote in Indiana.

I don't really think we can extrapolate from the small universe of hardcore libertarians who voted Johnson in 2012 to his potentially much larger base of support this year.  In particular, I think he will do better in the Northeast than you are assuming and not as well in places like Missouri and Indiana that are on the whole very amenable to Trump.

I'd be willing to bet Indiana is one of his top 10 best states in the % of vote received in the state. Also,  the Libertarians got 4% in the gubernatorial race that year, which was their 4th best gubernatorial percentage out of all the states that year.

Was that when they had a quasi-celebrity Survivor castaway as their nominee?  That could explain some of that.

Yes it was lol.

[ElectionsGuy]

>30% = <2%
>40% = 2%
>50% = 3%
>60% = 4%
>70% = 5%
>80% = 6-7%
>90% = 7%+

[BaldEagle1991]

Why is Gary Johnson doing so bad in Mississippi and Alabama? I think the young people in MS and AL might be more receptive to his message.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is Gary Johnson doing so bad in Mississippi and Alabama? I think the young people in MS and AL might be more receptive to his message.

Deep south whites and blacks are probably the groups least receptive to libertarianism. The under 30 crowd is barely anything in any part of the country when it comes to the electorate.

[BaldEagle1991]

So the map looks like an east/west divide. The east is more authoritarian, the west more libertarian.

There's a lot of history with that. The people that moved West in the 1800s had the "frontier spirit" in which you can anything you want and the sky has no limit. The East at the time had a lot of people working for the federal gov't.

[Broken System]

Why is Gary Johnson doing so bad in Mississippi and Alabama? I think the young people in MS and AL might be more receptive to his message.

Gary Johnson's support is determined by the states with the least enthusiastic Trump and Clinton supporters. Southern Republicans are quite enthusiastic about Trump, as are southern Democrats about Hillary, especially the minorities.