Who will win Gwinnett County, GA?

[Arbitrage1980]

I grew up in Gwinnett County, and it's remarkable to see the demographic changes, with the massive influx of Latino and Asians.  Although I haven't lived there in years, I'm struck at how much it has changed each time I go back home to visit family.  Given that it's the 2nd most populous county in GA after Fulton, it will be crucial to Hillary winning the state.  Politically, Gwinnett has been a GOP stronghold; it last went for a democrat in 1976 when it went for Carter.  In 1980, it rejected the hometown incumbent President for Reagan and has not gone to a democrat since.  The last time a democrat won the state was Bill in 1992, by 0.59%, the closest state that year (although GA and VT were the very first states called for Clinton on election night).  


From talking to my parents, the minorities in Gwinnett are absolutely terrified of Trump, including conservative minorities who voted for W Bush, McCain, Romney.
 

[Xing]

It definitely seems like a county that will swing toward Hillary. Since Romney won it by nearly 10%, I'm not sure it will actually flip, but I could see Hillary holding Trump to a 3% win or so.

[Seriously?]

Trump and it won't be close. Gwinnett is still fundamentally a Republican county.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Trump and it won't be close. Gwinnett is still fundamentally a Republican county.

By that standard, Allegheny county, PA is fundamentally a Democratic county... and Trump is doomed...

[Adam Griffin]

Registration figures have been changing pretty quickly in Gwinnett over the past couple of years. Despite being more Republican/having an electorate that was whiter than the state in 2012, its white share of registered voters is now below that of the state as of this year.

If Trump solely collapses with Latinos and loses a few white suburbanites, then he'll have no trouble winning Gwinnett; the win will be probably held to high single digits. I'm not entirely convinced that huge segments of white suburbanites are going to flip, and especially so in Gwinnett: the demography and geography of Gwinnett basically suggests that the white suburbanites in most parts of the county are going to have more in common with those in Forsyth and Cherokee than in north Fulton (which are the ones that would shift substantially if it's going to happen). It really is a case of "proximity to Atlanta proper" and there aren't many whites in Gwinnett who fall into that category, other than a strip of solid GOP territory in SW Gwinnett.

I think where he could particularly compound an underperformance and possibly make the county a risk is if he collapses with Asian voters. You still have significant segments of Asian voters in suburban Georgia counties like Gwinnett that are voting for the GOP above and beyond what their national support totals would suggest is possible; you begin to get into trouble if you're Trump, have the above paragraph happen to you and then have a 7-8% portion of the electorate that is traditionally 60-70% GOP flip to 60-70% Democratic in an election.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump and it won't be close. Gwinnett is still fundamentally a Republican county.

I grew up in Gwinnett, and no it really isn't anymore.

[Arbitrage1980]

Registration figures have been changing pretty quickly in Gwinnett over the past couple of years. Despite being more Republican/having an electorate that was whiter than the state in 2012, its white share of registered voters is now below that of the state as of this year.

If Trump solely collapses with Latinos and loses a few white suburbanites, then he'll have no trouble winning Gwinnett; the win will be probably held to high single digits. I'm not entirely convinced that huge segments of white suburbanites are going to flip, and especially so in Gwinnett: the demography and geography of Gwinnett basically suggests that the white suburbanites in most parts of the county are going to have more in common with those in Forsyth and Cherokee than in north Fulton (which are the ones that would shift substantially if it's going to happen). It really is a case of "proximity to Atlanta proper" and there aren't many whites in Gwinnett who fall into that category, other than a strip of solid GOP territory in SW Gwinnett.

I think where he could particularly compound an underperformance and possibly make the county a risk is if he collapses with Asian voters. You still have significant segments of Asian voters in suburban Georgia counties like Gwinnett that are voting for the GOP above and beyond what their national support totals would suggest is possible; you begin to get into trouble if you're Trump, have the above paragraph happen to you and then have a 7-8% portion of the electorate that is traditionally 60-70% GOP flip to 60-70% Democratic in an election.

I'm Asian-American. My parents are pretty conservative Republicans who were YUGE fans of Reagan.  They're gonna vote Hillary because they are seriously afraid of what Trump will do to minorities. They think a President Trump could get us into a nuclear war with China and then lock us up in internment camps like what FDR did to Japanese-Americans during WWII.  At their local Asian church, the pastor even preached a sermon about existential threat of a Trump presidency, comparing him to Hitler, Stalin Mao, Hirohito, and Kim Il Sung. And when I went back home a few weeks ago, I saw more Hillary bumper stickers than Trump.  Contrast this to 2004 when every other car had Bush-Cheney 04 or W stickers. 

[Seriously?]

Trump and it won't be close. Gwinnett is still fundamentally a Republican county.

I grew up in Gwinnett, and no it really isn't anymore.

I must have  missed the part where the County Board didn't have a Democrat sitting on it, the Congressional delegation is 2-1 Republican (and the Democrat comes from DeKalb) and the State House and Senate delegations are Republican majority.

But aside from that, you're right. Gwinnett is surely not a Republican county anymore.

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump will win it--probably slighly less than the 9 point margin of 2012.  The trend to the Democrats has not been as dramatic in Gwinnett as in the southern suburban counties of Rockdale, Henry, Clayton, and Douglas.  The difference here is African-American influx into these counties who are citizens and can vote. 

On the other hand, the Asian and Hispanic movement into Gwinnett is significantly an immigrant population (spelled, cannot vote for a few election cycles).  And the northern tier of Gwinnett is quite exurban--simulating Hall, Barrow, and Walton counties which turn out massive majorities for the Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

I must have  missed the part where the County Board didn't have a Democrat sitting on it

Gerrymandered to hell and back, but you already knew that.

Board of Education does have a Democrat, at the very least (but only because they have 5 districts instead of 4, and gerrymandering of an equivalent sort - i.e. trying to shut out Democrats - in a county like Gwinnett would put at least 2 of those districts at-risk).

the Congressional delegation is 2-1 Republican (and the Democrat comes from DeKalb)

Seriously? Again, gerrymandering: splitting a county of 900k people across 3 districts (and shoving half of the Democratic portion into a VRA-protected district; the other half into a district with Forsyth) is going to yield what other result exactly?

and the State House and Senate delegations are Republican majority.

It's a gerrymandered 12-6 split in the House, with 3 of those districts vulnerable either in this election (105, 101) or prior to redistricting given the GOP's current trajectory (95).

It's a 4-3 split in the Senate; not exactly something to brag about given the fact that Gwinnett was two-thirds Republican 10 years ago and the size of Senate districts in Georgia naturally benefits the GOP.


But yeah: keep pretending that it's always and forever a "fundamentally Republican county". Or Georgia, for that matter.

[Thunder98]

This thread aged real well. Lmao

Actual 2016/2018 results

Clinton +5.8%

Abrams +14.4%

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Trump and it won't be close. Gwinnett is still fundamentally a Republican county.

It seems to me that users on this site are fundamentally bad at making accurate predictions.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This thread aged real well. Lmao

Actual 2016/2018 results

Clinton +5.8%

Abrams +14.4%

Damn at the acceleration toward the Democrats. And now the GOP County Commission Chair won't run for re-election, the DA may change his party ID to Democrat, and the Sherriff will probably run a quixotic, anti-immigrant campaign so he can become a martyr and get a job on somebody's ICE task force.

[libertpaulian]

A non-Bernie/Warren candidate wins Gwinnett by 13-15%.

[Inmate Trump]

I think an interesting follow-up question is...

If you were told before Election Day, that Gwinnett County would go to Hillary by around 6%...what would you think the overall country-wide election results would be?

[Inmate Trump]

I think an interesting follow-up question is...

If you were told before Election Day, that Gwinnett County would go to Hillary by around 6%...what would you think the overall country-wide election results would be?

I think this would've been my guess...

Hillary: 375
Trump: 163

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think an interesting follow-up question is...

If you were told before Election Day, that Gwinnett County would go to Hillary by around 6%...what would you think the overall country-wide election results would be?

I think this would've been my guess...

Hillary: 375
Trump: 163

Same. I wouldn't account for the rurals swinging wildly against Clinton.

[Arbitrage1980]

I think an interesting follow-up question is...

If you were told before Election Day, that Gwinnett County would go to Hillary by around 6%...what would you think the overall country-wide election results would be?

Hillary victory with ~350 electoral votes.