Who will win Gwinnett County, GA?

[Adam Griffin]

Registration figures have been changing pretty quickly in Gwinnett over the past couple of years. Despite being more Republican/having an electorate that was whiter than the state in 2012, its white share of registered voters is now below that of the state as of this year.

If Trump solely collapses with Latinos and loses a few white suburbanites, then he'll have no trouble winning Gwinnett; the win will be probably held to high single digits. I'm not entirely convinced that huge segments of white suburbanites are going to flip, and especially so in Gwinnett: the demography and geography of Gwinnett basically suggests that the white suburbanites in most parts of the county are going to have more in common with those in Forsyth and Cherokee than in north Fulton (which are the ones that would shift substantially if it's going to happen). It really is a case of "proximity to Atlanta proper" and there aren't many whites in Gwinnett who fall into that category, other than a strip of solid GOP territory in SW Gwinnett.

I think where he could particularly compound an underperformance and possibly make the county a risk is if he collapses with Asian voters. You still have significant segments of Asian voters in suburban Georgia counties like Gwinnett that are voting for the GOP above and beyond what their national support totals would suggest is possible; you begin to get into trouble if you're Trump, have the above paragraph happen to you and then have a 7-8% portion of the electorate that is traditionally 60-70% GOP flip to 60-70% Democratic in an election.

[Adam Griffin]

I must have  missed the part where the County Board didn't have a Democrat sitting on it

Gerrymandered to hell and back, but you already knew that.

Board of Education does have a Democrat, at the very least (but only because they have 5 districts instead of 4, and gerrymandering of an equivalent sort - i.e. trying to shut out Democrats - in a county like Gwinnett would put at least 2 of those districts at-risk).

the Congressional delegation is 2-1 Republican (and the Democrat comes from DeKalb)

Seriously? Again, gerrymandering: splitting a county of 900k people across 3 districts (and shoving half of the Democratic portion into a VRA-protected district; the other half into a district with Forsyth) is going to yield what other result exactly?

and the State House and Senate delegations are Republican majority.

It's a gerrymandered 12-6 split in the House, with 3 of those districts vulnerable either in this election (105, 101) or prior to redistricting given the GOP's current trajectory (95).

It's a 4-3 split in the Senate; not exactly something to brag about given the fact that Gwinnett was two-thirds Republican 10 years ago and the size of Senate districts in Georgia naturally benefits the GOP.


But yeah: keep pretending that it's always and forever a "fundamentally Republican county". Or Georgia, for that matter.