What predictions did he get perfectly right? The Keys he made with hindsight?
He correctly predicted the popular vote winner months and sometimes even years in advance for all the elections from 1984 to 2012. Even when the candidates themselves weren't known yet, he predicted which party would win. So I think some posters in this thread are being a bit hard on him. My issue isn't with his record. That famous Election-Picking Octopus has a pretty damn good record, too -- and obviously Lichtman is identifying variables that have some degree of relevance, so I wouldn't allege he's entirely skating on luck. My problem is that the idea that his methodology identifies the relevant variables in an election so completely that you can add up "points" to accurately estimate a winner...it's pretty absurd. I also just don't think highly of the way he talks about his system. I think he sees it as methodologically very serious, instead of being a useful way of thinking through things.
