"Never wrong pundit" Allan Lichtman predicts Clinton win.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I used to have a great deal of respect for Lichtman and Keys, but not sure I do now. Is he rigging the nomination contest key for Hillary? The criteria is very clear in the book and it's 2/3's of the delegates...Hillary only got 3/5's.

As for the foreign/military success, sorry but it has to be seen as a "success" across the political spectrum. The killing of OBL in Obama's first term counted, but the Iran nuclear deal is only seen through partisan lenses.

He's obviously rigging one of these keys.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

What predictions did he get perfectly right? The Keys he made with hindsight?

He correctly predicted the popular vote winner months and sometimes even years in advance for all the elections from 1984 to 2012. Even when the candidates themselves weren't known yet, he predicted which party would win. So I think some posters in this thread are being a bit hard on him.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

How the hell is he still claiming Democrats have Key 2? In the book, he clearly states the winner must have 2/3's of the delegates...HRC got 3/5's of the delegates. 3/5's is less than 2/3's. This is not rocket science.

I don't have a problem with him saying Trump is so different from any other candidates in history that he could thwart the Keys. Now I know what you're saying....there's been other candidates like that...George McGovern, Barry Goldwater, William Jennings Bryan,etc. The problem is those guys were running in years where the fundamentals clearly did not favor their party.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

How the hell is he still claiming Democrats have Key 2? In the book, he clearly states the winner must have 2/3's of the delegates...HRC got 3/5's of the delegates. 3/5's is less than 2/3's. This is not rocket science.

He believes that since Clinton was never in serious danger of losing her lead after SC, and because Bernie was supportive at the convention, it doesn't count as a "serious" challenge.

He turned the key against Carter in 1980 even though he had a HIGHER percentage of the delegates (a little under 64%) than Clinton did this time. He's clearly moving the goalposts. Not to sound arrogant, but leave it to someone like me who's actually read the book to be able to question Lichtman's own logic.