"Never wrong pundit" Allan Lichtman predicts Clinton win.

[GMantis]

Lichtman has obviously falsified the second and almost certainly the fourth key (Johnson and Stein will almost certainly have more than 5% together and they take more votes from Clinton than from Trump). But to his defense, his model has no way to react to the challenger party losing an easily winnable election because they nominated a terrible candidate, which is not surprising when you consider it hasn't happened any time recently (1948 is probably the last time it happened, considering that the Republicans should have won by the Lichtman keys).

[GMantis]

Wow, I never realized this guy was such a show boater.  His criteria is so vague you can put yourself on either side of it an most of his "keys".  He just wants to hedge his bets and make his sterling record, which was broken in 2000 look somewhat clean.

The model may have problems but 2000 was not one of them. When he developed the model in the 1980's he clearly said this was only to predict the popular vote winner since 1860. He used 1876 and 1888 as examples where his model would have called the popular vote winner, not the EC winner.

There is of course the fact that in both of these elections there was massive voter suppression of Blacks in the South, so dubious whether the Democrats would have won the popular vote under fair conditions in either one, especially in 1888.